Sputnik: How could the brewing crisis in Venezuela and potential power shift affect the country’s position on the oil market and in OPEC?
Dr Cyril Widdershoven: When looking at the oil market, the real effects of a potential implosion of the Maduro regime [Venezuelan government], will not be very large. Already, most of Venezuela’s oil production is down, only now being able to produce 800,000-1.2 million bpd.
For OPEC, the situation could be different. Venezuela is still a hardliner within the cartel, supporting Iran. Looking at the demise of the country’s production, its overall impact on the cartel will be very low. The latter situation will give more room for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, to step up their coordination with Russia and other non-OPEC members. It also will weaken the position of Iran, as no more real support within the cartel is available.
Russia could also change sides very soon, taking the point of view that cooperation with Saudi Arabia, UAE, is more important than hanging on to a lame duck and Iran.
Sputnik: Experts say that China and India could actually profit from the US-imposed sanctions on PDVSA. How is that?
However, this will only be for the short term, as both will need to look at the US and EU, even to Arab countries, to deal with the potential fallout of supporting the Maduro regime [Caracas authorities].
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect Sputnik's opinion.
The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.