Why Germany's Military Buildup and EU Leadership Remain a Big If

The German government has set a goal of creating a "powerful Bundeswehr" (armed forces) that can defend itself and wage war for European "security and freedom" amid the Ukraine conflict. Is this ambitious goal achievable?

Germany has presented a brand new military doctrine since 2011 that envisages a military buildup, naming Russia as "the greatest threat to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area" and chastising China for "increasingly aggressively claiming regional supremacy."

"Today, nobody can seriously doubt what we in Germany have been avoiding for a long time, namely that we need a powerful Bundeswehr," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Friday, while commenting on the profound shift in the country's strategic thinking.

What's more, Scholz vowed to meet NATO's 2% spending target "throughout the '20s and '30s." Per the Western press, Germany will hit this goal already this year, due to the €100 billion ($106.7 billion) special fund created in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.

There is rhetoric in German society and in the German elites, in all think tanks, and in all institutions, "about the need to prepare for a possible war with Russia, because Russia is the aggressor," Alexander Rahr, a German political scientist and head of Eurasian Society, told Sputnik.

"In Germany, precisely after the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the so-called change of eras was proclaimed at the highest level, and it implies a change in the criteria of German foreign policy from peace-loving to more, I would say, militaristic," Rahr said.

"There are countries such as Poland and the Baltic states, but not only them, there are many other countries that began to exert pressure on Germany, and claim that Germans bear a large share of the blame for allegedly being too soft and too trusting in its dealings with the Russian Federation."

"And Germany, in order to maintain and strengthen its leadership in Europe, has now decided that it needs to follow exactly this path: to change the parameters of its policy in relation to Eastern strategy, in relation to Russia. Thus, of course, all big and necessary initiatives are crossed out, like detente or the dialogue that was conducted with Russia, or the restoration of economic ties, and so on. It has all been thrown into the dustbin," the expert continued.

Berlin's decoupling with Russia has come at a cost for Germany: in mid-October, Bloomberg summed up that the country's "year of frailty is seen ending in a double-digit recession." Per the media, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) plummeted 0.2% in the quarter through September and is likely to slide a further 0.1% before the end of 2023. All in all, Germany's GDP is forecast to drop 0.4% in 2023 and probably rebound not more than 0.5% next year.

A chorus of economic experts interviewed by the publication predicted "weak economic growth" in Germany for years to come. Calling Germany – once Europe's largest economy – a "deadweight" and "sick man", the media blamed the slowdown on the energy crisis and "sluggish Chinese demand."

However, international observers admit that the anti-Russia energy embargo and the Nord Stream sabotage attack apparently became the main factors in Germany's steady de-industrialization and decline, given that its "economic miracle" was in many respects backed by the uninterruptable flow of Russia's natural gas and other energy commodities. Against this backdrop, Germany reaching NATO's target of military spending at 2% of GDP does not look as promising as it may seem.

Europe is not in its best economic shape, too: GDP across the Eurozone's 20 countries slid 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter when compared with the earlier three months, the European Union's statistics office found in October. Per economists, this indicates that the euro area may fall into recession later this year.

Nonetheless, Germany is continuing to see itself as the flagship of the European Union and wants to be at the forefront alongside the countries that will strengthen NATO, per Rahr. He noted that Berlin understands that the EU needs to build up muscle to become a strong geopolitical actor, not a "political dwarf." At the same time, Germany agrees to act in line with Washington (unlike France which is reportedly seeking strategic autonomy), he added.

"Of course, the question arises among serious experts, specialists and politicians, and among the public: is there money for this?" Rahr said. "Because in Europe there is money, but there are also a lot of problems, very acute ones, that can and should be solved by financial methods of injecting finance here and there.

"Do Europeans have enough strength, and, I would even say, political will to really become such a new militarized force alongside America, which, perhaps, will even independently wage wars in Africa, in Mali, for example – which France tried to do and failed – or again somewhere in the Middle East? This is a big question."