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Mixed Signals From US Unlikely to Bring China Into Nuclear Arms Talks Soon, Think Tank Says

© AP Photo / Phil Sandlin Dec. 4, 1989 file photo shows the launch of a Trident II, D-5 missile from the submerged USS Tennessee submarine in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida. As of mid-2010, 12 operational U.S. nuclear-missile submarines carry a total of 288 Trident missiles. A movement is growing worldwide to abolish nuclear weapons, encouraged by President Barack Obama's endorsement of that goal. But "realists" argue that more stability and peace must first be achieved in the world.
 Dec. 4, 1989 file photo shows the launch of a Trident II, D-5 missile from the submerged USS Tennessee submarine in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida. As of mid-2010, 12 operational U.S. nuclear-missile submarines carry a total of 288 Trident missiles. A movement is growing worldwide to abolish nuclear weapons, encouraged by President Barack Obama's endorsement of that goal. But realists argue that more stability and peace must first be achieved in the world. - Sputnik International
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MOSCOW (Sputnik) - China seems unlikely to be joining what the United States hopes will become a trilateral deal on nuclear arms cuts any time soon due to a lack of clarity from Washington, Daryl Kimball, the head of the Arms Control Association, said on Thursday.
"The prospects for near-term progress engaging China in a 'trilateral' process are extremely low and given that the Trump administration has not made it clear how it proposes that China can contribute to the process", Kimball said.

He suggested that the US was genuinely seeking a dialogue with China but was also "cynically trying to portray China as an obstacle to nuclear arms reductions when, in reality, it is the United States and Russia that possess 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons".

Russia and the US are each estimated to have slightly over 6,000 warheads, while China has 290, France 300, and the UK 200, according to the 2019 figures provided by the US-based Arms Control Association.

Eventually, China and other nuclear powers will need to take greater responsibility for the nuclear disarmament, Kimball added, but right now the US and Russia's best bet is to extend the pact unconditionally for another five years to buy time for talks on a successor deal.

This, Kimball suggested, would "improve the prospects that China might contribute to the disarmament process in the future". 

"Without New START, the two largest nuclear arsenals will be unconstrained for the first time in nearly five decades and the risk of a dangerous all-out nuclear arms race will grow", the expert warned.

China has refused to sit down with the US and Russia in Vienna on Monday to discuss the future of the last major arms control pact, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in February. Beijing argues it has only a fraction of nuclear arsenals wielded by the two rivals.

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