WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Last week, the parties involved in the intra-Syrian peace talks adopted a declaration that included a dozen points related to implementing a political solution.
“There is apparently a willingness to talk about many issues. What is not clear is whether the [Syrian] government is willing to follow any plan that might threaten its hold on political power,” Ohio State University Professor Emeritus of International Law John Quigley said on Monday.
It will also be difficult to draw the Kurds into any plan because they now see the possibility of separation from Syria, he cautioned.
University of Copenhagen Professor Matthew dal Santo agreed that de Mistura’s goal of creating a unified but tolerant and democratic state in Syria was unlikely to be achieved.
“It's hard not to agree that Syria should become 'a democratic, non-sectarian state based on citizenship and political pluralism.' But we all know that liberal democracies don't exactly grow on trees in the Middle East.”
None of Syria’s neighbors provided any credible or attractive model to create or emulate such a system, Dal Santo pointed out.
“It is difficult to find among those regional states that have sponsored the rebels a model for this new free and inclusive Syria. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are repressive sectarian monarchies; Turkey, though it had at least until recently come closer than most, has backslidden dramatically.”
The US 13-year effort to create a stable democracy in Iraq had clearly completely failed, Dal Santo added.
“Neighboring 'democratic Iraq' is basically a failed state. So even if the parties agree to work towards a 'democratic Syria' on paper, let's not be surprised [in] five, ten or fifteen years if the country has returned to a more or less authoritarian form of government.”
“Unless unbearable diplomatic pressure is brought to bear from his supporters in Moscow and Tehran, Assad will remain in power for some time yet.”
The biggest problem with de Mistura’s new plan was that while he had identified a destination, he had not spelled out any way to get there, Dal Santo continued.
“It's important to be realistic. The best to be hoped for now is a stop to the killing; and this shouldn't be held hostage to grand and probably unrealizable dreams about the future.”
However, in the short term, if the ceasefire holds, there remained good reason to believe sanctions on Syria could be lifted, he concluded.
On Monday, US Department of State spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that there is an unprecedented sense of momentum behind the Syrian political process since Secretary of State John Kerry’s discussions last week in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
