MOSCOW, September 22 (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle). Early next week, President Vladimir Putin is expected to host a televised call-in with ordinary citizens, to be broadcast live across Russia. As in the past, the president's annual call-in, while sounding out public opinion, will probably also try to form it.
Since 2001, Putin has used televised phone-ins to announce new initiatives, and also as a forum to control political discourse. The president used his 2003 appearance to announce his re-election bid, while the following year's call-in show focused on social and economic concerns ahead of monetization of Soviet-era benefits. This year's show will most likely focus on Putin's political future and the extra budgetary expenditures, to the tune of $4 billion, which are slated for next year.
The topic widely referred to as "operation successor" will most certainly be one of the major points of discussion in the call-in. Putin will be asked whether he intends to stand down as president once his second term ends, as the constitution requires. Public opinion polls have consistently shown that the majority of the Russian electorate would like Putin to remain in office.
Given that Putin has been asked this question repeatedly over the past few months, there can be no doubt he will reply with his usual "yes." What might be of greater interest, however, is whether the president will drop any hints as to the person he may name as his successor. If any names are mentioned, the Kremlin can be expected to closely study the public's response.
On a related issue, Putin will probably be asked what plans he has for after 2008. He has already said that he hopes the country will make use of his experience and ability once he leaves office. The call-in may be an opportunity for him to make clear what he has in mind. Does he intend to step onto the sidelines of politics? Might he seek a high-profile role for himself as the head of a political party? Or will his future be in the private sector? Given the president's high approval ratings, and the insistence to stay in power of the ruling elites around him, whatever Putin plans to do will be aimed at maintaining the status quo achieved while he was in power.
Questions at previous live call-ins have overwhelmingly focused on living standards, public sector salaries, and a variety of other government subsidies. Anticipating questions on these issues, Putin will be well prepared. The recent addition of $4 billion to next year's budget for social expenditures and investment will be touted as demonstrating the government's concern for the social welfare of the least advantaged, particularly in the light of the street protests against the monetization of social benefits earlier this year.
Increasing budgetary expenditures on social programs as Russia approaches the 2007-8 political season are no coincidence. Putin will leave office in 2008, but the political establishment created during his time in office is angling to stay on. For this to happen, Putin will spend the remainder of his tenure transferring his personal popularity to the government and the political forces currently close to the Kremlin. Transferring personal authority and popularity to individuals and institutions will be no easy task, even for someone as charismatic as Putin.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
