"According to our estimates, oil will trade range-bound at around $60-$80 per barrel in the next 12 months," Gattiker said.
The analyst stated that the price will be more affected by market-specific factors affecting the supply-demand balance rather than the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, he noted stressing further that "the determining factors will be OPEC+ politics and Washington's stance on Iran."
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The United States is not interested in the oil price being above $80 per barrel since domestic gasoline price above $4 per gallon would become a big problem for the acting administration, he also noted.
"These factors played their role in Washington’s final decision [on Iran]. It should also be mentioned that if oil prices go above $80 per barrel, there is a supply response from shale producers and market intervention by the US government," the analyst explained.
As a result, in the near future, the prices will rebound, but will subsequently decline in the medium term, he added.
The forecast comes as the price of Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, has fallen more than a quarter off a four-year high of $86.74 per barrel reached on October 3. It has plummeted to a 50-week low of $61.71 on Tuesday. It has since rebounded, but is still on its way to a seventh consecutive week of losses.
The views and opinions expressed by the analyst do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
