Divisions Brewing Between Pentagon and White House Over Biden's Ukraine Gamble

Western leaders in private conversations cast doubt on Kiev's odds of winning at the Aspen Security Forum despite previously hailing Ukraine's alleged progress on the battlefield, according to the Western press. What's behind the change of heart?

Earl Rasmussen, a retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel and international consultant, told Sputnik that both Western officials and Washington insiders are "somewhat delusional, especially on the political level" when it comes to the Ukraine conflict.

"I think the overall perception is one of disappointment," Rasmussen said. "I think that a lot of the Western and Washington circles are somewhat delusional, especially on the political level. I think the military level knew that the whole adventure here was probably not the best."

"Ukraine was not going to win overall, but I think there was a lot of political pushing and this offensive was geared to break through. I'm not sure on the Pentagon side, but on the political side, I think a lot of them still did not fully realize, they still don't grasp the strength, the strategic position, the resolve on the Russian side, nor do they really understand the cultural issues and a lot of things they don't understand. And they're set on the one path."

Apparently, Team Biden still believes there would be a Ukrainian "breakthrough," and that the Russian military wouldn't be able to resist it, per the US military veteran. He referred to the US mainstream media that had been repeating for months that the Russian military was doomed to lose.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently insisted that Russia "already lost" while speaking to an American broadcaster. Commenting on Blinken's remark, CIA veteran Larry Johnson wrote on his blog on July 23 that "it is alarming that America’s top diplomat is so divorced from reality."

Unlike State Department officials, the Pentagon military leadership most likely understands Ukraine is unable to prevail, per Rasmussen.

US defense officials could hardly ignore heavy losses sustained by Ukraine in terms of military equipment and manpower since the beginning of the counteroffensive. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine has lost 26,000 servicemen, 21 airplanes, five helicopters, some 1,244 Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles, including 17 Leopard tanks, five French AMX wheeled tanks, 914 units of special vehicles, two air defense systems, and 25 MLRS vehicles.

"And so there's a shift in thought," Rasmussen said. "I think there's a division in thought processes between the military and the political leadership. But either way, I think everyone is, I would say, disappointed or disillusioned and are actually only now starting to realize this is not going good. And I think they feel trapped in a way."

In some respects, this shift in thought has been reflected in the recent reports by US press that, according to the expert, is no longer independent. In fact, some US leaders have realized they've gone down a rabbit hole and are now trying to shape public opinion through the media, the official noted.

"So, the media is actually validating some of the shifting and some of the discussions going on amongst the elite," the retired lieutenant colonel suggested.

Team Biden's Ukraine Project Started in Obama Era

At the same time, Rasmussen has drawn attention to the political inertia of Team Biden that has invested a lot in the Ukraine project. Per him, "a lot of this started back" during the Obama administration.

It's the same group of people that's involved in Ukraine, he noted, referring in particular to Blinken, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan. For instance, Nuland actively participated in events surrounding the February 2014 coup d'etat in Kiev. An intercepted phone conversation in which she disparaged the EU and gave instructions on how to shape the future Ukrainian government stole headlines at the time.

"This is their lifelong project, their whole career projects and planning for this. And the offensive is a part of it. But it's kind of a last gasp to try to move something forward," Rasmussen said.

According to the US military veteran, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is doomed: the Ukrainian military are likely to face heavier losses. However, Team Biden does not care about it, as they are proceeding with their larger geopolitical plan, he noted.

Biden Can't Admit Defeat Before Elections

To complicate matters further, the Biden administration cannot admit its defeat in Ukraine before the 2024 election, he continued.

"No president in a wartime situation has ever lost a reelection," the expert remarked. "So they're hoping that somehow they can garner support to get [US President] Joe Biden across the finish line again. And notice all the opposition within the Democratic Party. [contender of the Democratic Party 2024] Robert Kennedy [Jr.], who's opposed to the war here, he's being demonized by the media and the political elite. You've got [former US President] Donald Trump, the counterpart on the other Republican side who's the primary opponent. He's being demonized and has five court cases now thrown against him."

"So there you got the Democratic primaries are no longer going to have any debates. It's just not a democracy anymore. Instead, we got free speech being put down, we've got censorship occurring," Rasmussen continued.

Dangerous Gambling by Biden Administration

Despite growing national debt and government deficit, the Biden administration is likely to double down on spending because the NATO proxy war in Ukraine benefits the US military industrial complex that contribute immensely to politicians, according to the retired lieutenant colonel.

"So they just will not accept the settlement, and will continue to go down," Rasmussen said. "It is like an addicted gambler. He loses a couple of hands, so he doubles down, loses more, he doubles down. 'I'm going to win it eventually.' And that's what it is. They just keep throwing money and money and money. And they're hoping, maybe that's going to at least get us through the election period and we can win the election and maybe then we can look for an off-ramp."