GOP Faces Shrinking Gains in Race for House Control, But Still on Course For a Majority, Poll Shows

The US Democratic Party has been bracing itself for a gloomy outcome in the November mid-term elections, with the Republicans predicted to gain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, as Joe Biden’s popularity has plummeted in the face of rampant inflation and over-the-top gas prices.

While Republicans remain in a position to grab enough House of Representatives’ seats in the November midterms to secure a majority, their advantage appears to be shrinking, according to a CBS News/YouGov survey released on August 28.

Republicans are predicted to win 226 House seats in November, which is down from 230 seats estimated in July, CBS News Battleground Tracker revealed. A majority of 218 is required to win control of the House. In the Senate, the final outcome might be quite close, according to numerous surveys.

The narrower, 12-seat House gain, is forecast amid a plethora of issues believed to be chipping away at the GOP’s chances in the midterm elections. They range from abortion rights and falling gas prices to what was dubbed “the Donald Trump factor” the ex-POTUS’ possible reelection bid, the survey noted.

Abortion

After the Supreme Court’s decision on June 24 to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion nationwide, reproductive rights have become a leading issue this election cycle.

65 % of women surveyed by the CBS News poll from August 24 to 26, expressed concerns that Republicans will prioritize abortion restrictions if they gain power. In many states, Republicans had previously passed what’s known as “trigger laws” that would ban almost all abortions, with stringent rules for exceptions to protect the mother’s health. Laws that ban abortion or severely restrict the procedure have already gone into effect in about a dozen states after the June ruling.

On July 26, the Supreme Court officially transmitted its judgment to the lower courts, allowing ever more state trigger abortion restrictions to go into effect, albeit in some abortion rights advocates have taken legal action to challenge the bans.

Furthermore, likely voters in the midterms said by more than a 2-to-1 margin that they would vote to support abortion rights rather than oppose them, the survey found.

‘The Trump Factor’

Registered voters who will be casting their ballots in the midterms are also closely following recent developments connected with the FBI's search of the former president’s Mar-a-Lago estate.

Despite just under 50 % of all voters claiming that their vote is ‘not about Donald Trump,’ 80 % of Republicans see the search as a “political attack on Trump.”

85 % of Democrats and 59 % of independents acknowledged that they believed the search was an “attempt to protect national security.”

Energy Crisis

53 % of the surveyed 2,126 registered voters appear to have a somewhat improved view of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy after gas prices in their area went down, the poll showed. The Democratic POTUS’ approval rating, which considers the economy, inflation and gas prices, rose three points to 45 % compared with 42 percent in July.

However, only a third of Americans believe the Democrats have a plan to fight soaring inflation.

The poll comes as gas prices decreased slightly in August. Oil prices retreated more than 20 percent since peaking in early June as crude production ramped up in the US.

Besides the Biden administration’s approval of permits to drill on federal land, the Treasury Department issued a news release on July 26 crediting the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with helping soothe volatile markets.

Trump ‘Deserves Re-election’

Meanwhile, amid the ruckus over the FBI search at the 45th POTUS’s Florida residence, a majority of Republican voters believe Donald Trump should be the party's nominee in 2024, a USA Today/Ipsos poll released on August 28 indicated.

The poll, conducted after the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago, revealed that roughly 59% of Republican voters said Trump "deserves re-election" and should be the party’s nominee in 2024. Only 41% said Trump shouldn't run.

Furthermore, about 82% of Republican voters surveyed believe Trump can win the election. Trump also had an 81% favorability rating, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence (69%), Sen. Ted Cruz (68%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (67%).

As for Democratic voters, only 44% believed that Joe Biden should be the nominee in 2024. As for the 79-year-old president’s reelection chances, only 60% of Democratic voters believed that the could win.

"Republican voters in this poll tell us they clearly want a fighter in 2024, and they see Trump as their champion,” Ipsos President Cliff Young said, adding:

“On the other hand, Democrats want someone who is both a fighter and a unifier. Right now, (President Joe) Biden falls short on meeting these two dueling ideals.”