How FBI's Raid Gave Boost to Trump, Reinvigorated GOP Base Ahead of Midterms

Former President Donald Trump got a 10-point boost over his nearest Republican competitor Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 contest following the FBI's Mar-a-Lago raid, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll.

"A large part of former President Trump's popularity with his supporters is that he fights back against the establishment, whether it be the 'swamp' in Washington, DC, or the political party elites," says Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "He has certainly been speaking out about the raid, but we will have to wait to see if anything comes of it. By that I mean whether there are any charges actually filed. Unlike most Americans, and aside from his media platforms, Trump has the resources to fight what he thinks are unfair actions by the government."

The FBI's unannounced search of Donald Trump's premises in Mar-a-Lago, Florida has reinvigorated his base, a Politico/Morning Consult survey shows. 58 percent of Republican voters said they would vote for the former president if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today. The share of support is visibly up from 54% in July and 53% in June, according to the pollsters. Likewise, a whopping 71% of GOP voters insist that Trump should run for president in 2024. Moreover, 72% of Republicans said they disagreed with the Mar-a-Lago raid.

The Daily Mail argues, however, that the poll was conducted prior to the release of the FBI's search warrant and receipt, which showed that the bureau took at least 11 sets of classified documents from Trump's Florida house, with the Justice Department having probable cause to carry out the search based on possible Espionage Act abuses.

However, on August 13, Fox News broke that the FBI had allegedly laid their hands on documents shielded by client-attorney and executive privilege, with Donald Trump taking to his social media platform Truth Social and demanding that the documents in question be returned. The president lambasted the bureau for the raid, insisting that it was unnecessary and unjustified given that all documents in his possession were declassified and he and his team were ready to provide access to them any time.

"For the FBI to raid the home of the 45 President of the United States, or any President for that matter, is totally unheard of and unthinkable," Trump wrote on Sunday. "This Break In was a sneak attack on democracy (our Republic!), and was both unannounced and done at a time when the President was not even present."

Trump supporters reacted passionately to the ex-president's posts by rallying outside Mar-a-Lago and Trump's Bedminster, New Jersey golf club. They were seen holding signs reading "Save America" and "You raided the wrong president."

Midterm Elections at Stake

The unfolding situation will definitely backfire on the upcoming November midterm elections, according to Hagle.

"The overall effect on the midterm elections will vary depending on how the situation plays out," the political science professor says. "Trump supporters, and Republicans more generally, were already quite motivated to vote in the midterms, but this just intensifies that desire. Democrats were less motivated and the party was desperately searching for something to get their base motivated. Some thought the Supreme Court's abortion decision might do so, but that doesn't seem to have happened beyond a certain group of core voters."

Hagle notes that Democrats were successful with an "anti-Trump" approach in 2020; he believes that they would like to try that again.

"The thinking might be that if Trump is, figuratively, on the ballot it would help them in the midterms," the academic remarks. "I'm not so sure. There may be some who get more motivated with an anti-Trump fervor, but the economy will still be the key for the important voters who are less concerned about politics and more about day to day living."

The FBI raid came after mainstream media reports that Trump may announce his presidential bid in September 2022 or even earlier. Politico and The Washington Post reported in mid-July that the former president had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential 2024 campaign.

The DoJ investigation into Trump triggered speculation that he may announce his new presidential bid very soon, the Daily Mail reports, also referring to a new "campaign-style video" released by the ex-president on his Truth Social platform.

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul has called on US lawmakers to repeal the 1917 Espionage Act, after it turned out that the DoJ suspects Trump of violating Section 793 of the law. Section 793 specifically addresses "gathering, transmitting or losing defense information," and also includes refusal to return information that is demanded by the government.

"I don't think it's realistic to suggest that it be repealed," says Hagle. "It's more likely that certain limitations could be placed on it to help prevent the abuses that people perceive are occurring with it."

In addition to that, there are assumptions that the FBI raid was nothing short of a fishing expedition connected to the probe by the House Select Committee on January 6 Attack aimed at delegitimizing him before the 2024 race.

"The Justice Department should 'show that this was not just a fishing expedition, that they had due cause to go in and to do this, that they did exhaust all other means," Republican Senator Mike Rounds told NBC's Meet the Press, suggesting that the release of the FBI's affidavit would help. "And if they can't do that, then we've got a serious problem on our hands."