Academic on Conservative Party Leadership Race: My Bet Would Be on Boris Johnson

Michael Gove has announced that a small extension to Article Fifty would not be the end of the world, in stark contrast to his rival for Party leadership and the role of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson. But is a further delay to Brexit inevitable, even after Theresa May leaves office?

Sputnik spoke with Dr Connal Parr; Lecturer in history at Northumbria University for more.

Sputnik: Will Brexit finally happen on the 31st of October?

Dr Connal Parr: I think Brexit is nailed down now for Halloween, so technically when that would be enforced, that's when the EU has kind of said, that's now set in stone.

It's now a case of whether the UK leaves with a deal, or without a deal, as has always been the case, I don't think that there's going to be any deviation or alteration in that.

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Sputnik: Who do you think will become the next British Prime Minister?

Dr Connal Parr: The bookie's favourite seems to be the one who I think will win; Boris Johnson, because I think that the way the Conservatives are looking at it, and the way that they've always been looking at these things in recent years really, is who is the best person who can win an election? Rather than necessarily who is the best person who can deliver Brexit, and who is the best person who can deliver the nation sort of out of a bit of a difficult period that it's going through.

What the Conservatives believe is that Johnson; who some people say is more on certain issues, on the left of the Conservative Party, socially liberal say, is going to be the best person to come up against Corbyn, while also representing certain kind of old style Conservative values, but also having that media ability, and ability to communicate with people, so I think Johnson is the most likely.

At the same time; The Conservatives are well known for choosing leaders sometimes, I'm thinking here of the choice of Iain Duncan Smith, the choice of John Major even, who was not the favourite to succeed Margaret Thatcher, unquestionably Michael Heseltine was believed to have been the frontrunner for that particular time, so it is possible that the Conservatives could spring a surprise as well, but my bet would be on Boris Johnson.

READ MORE: Frontrunner Johnson Vows to Deliver Brexit, 'Deal or No Deal', In Campaign Video

Sputnik: Will the Brexit Party be able to maintain their popularity after the UK leaves the EU?

Dr Connal Parr: It used to be said with the Green Party; who also had quite a good set of election results in the local and the European elections, that it was a single issue party, now the Brexit Party is more even than the Greens, I think that was a way of dismissing the Greens and this is perhaps a way of dismissing the Brexit Party, but it is a single issue party as in the maximum possible political capital that the Brexit Party can make, is in this exact window between now and the 1^st of November, between now and when the UK leaves the EU, and It is likely to succeed quite strongly in that window.

My guess would be that when this period comes to an end; and some form of Brexit is delivered, which I think is now almost certain, that its political mileage, its political capital will run out quite badly.

They are a bit of a UKIP mark two in many ways, they are very built on Farage's personality, personal votes, they've got a bit of Trump about them in terms of some of the literature around Mike Green, some of the reporting around Mike Green in Peterborough, and he's a former businessman, secret millionaire, he's got sort of two fingers up to the establishment, two fingers up to the established certainties in British politics, so they are quite clever in terms of who they are recruiting, they've got a bit of a Trump "drain the swamp" quality about them, and my belief is that after Brexit they will evaporate as fast as UKIP has in many ways. I may be wrong; about that, but I think that's the way it is heading.

The views and opinions expressed by the speaker do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.