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'Well-Developed Industry' of Election Surveys Can't Predict Next US President

© AP Photo / Rick T. Wilking/PoolRepublican presidential nominee Donald Trump gestures during the presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Monday, Sept. 26, 2016
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gestures during the presidential debate with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Monday, Sept. 26, 2016 - Sputnik International
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It is too early to make forecasts on the results of the US presidential elections taking into account the first televised debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Russian political analyst Nikolai Pakhomov told RIA Novosti

Republican US presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton greet one another as they take the stage for their first debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, U.S. September 26, 2016. - Sputnik International
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In an interview with RIA Novosti, Russian political analyst Nikolai Pakhomov said that despite the fact that the first polls conducted after the first TV debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump showed Clinton in the lead, it is too early to predict the outcome of the US presidential elections.

The interview came after a Public Polling Policy (PPP) survey, in particular, revealed that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has a solid lead over her Republican rival Donald Trump in five key US battleground states following the first presidential debate.

If the results hold up, Trump has "no path to victory," the pollster explained.

"I'm skeptical about all these polls. I think it is too early to talk about how the debates affected the candidates' position, not to mention the outcome of the elections. In this sense, I would not jump to conclusions even despite the fact that in America, pre-election survey-taking is a well-developed industry," Pakhomov said.

According to him, making any forecasts on the matter is pointless now, given that the pre-election fight "is neck-and-neck between Clinton and Trump."

"In the overwhelming majority of states, the result is already clear, which is why the outcome of the election will be decided in a dozen states, where people still sit on the fence. In some such states, Clinton manages to dominate, while in others, Trump is able to catch up," Pakhomov said.

According to him, the Trump headquarters plans to focus on campaigning in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which are noted for having a large number of voters.

Also, one should consider any unexpected events that may affect the outcome of elections, Pakhomov recalled, referring to the situation in 2008, when Barack Obama only managed to get the better of John McCain during the election campaign after the economic crisis took place in the United States.

"After that, the number of the Republicans' supporters dropped dramatically, while the popularity of the Democrats and Obama increased," he concluded.

Meanwhile, PPP Director Tom Jensen said that Clinton has solid leads in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia — states seen as important to her path to 270 electoral votes — and modest leads in Florida and North Carolina.

This combination of file photos shows the silhouettes of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump(R) July 18, 2016 and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton on February 4, 2016. - Sputnik International
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In a two-way race, Clinton leads Trump by at least three points in Colorado (51-44), Florida (48-45), North Carolina (49-45), Pennsylvania (49-44) and Virginia (49-43).

Additionally, the poll noted that voters in all five states widely perceived Clinton to be the winner of the first presidential debate on Monday night.
Another survey conducted by the company Echelon Insights, shows Clinton currently leads Trumps by five percentage points.

The opinion polls aggregator FiveThirtyEight, in turn, claims that the likelihood of Clinton's victory in the presidential elections currently stands at 58 percent, and Trump – at 42 percent.

The second of three Clinton-Trump debates is scheduled for October 9.

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