MOSCOW, November 1 (RIA Novosti) — Republicans are likely to win control of the US Senate in the midterm elections on November 4, putting key components of President Barack Obama's agenda at risk.
THE SENATE BATTLEGROUND
On Tuesday, Americans will go to the polls to elect 435 members of the House of Representatives, 36 senators, 36 governors and 46 state legislatures in what is called midterm elections as they occur midway between the sitting president's four-year term. Barack Obama has another two years in office.
State-level policies often have a greater impact on the lives of the average Americans than decisions by Congress and the White House, though congressional elections are more important on issues such as foreign policy and nationwide reforms.
There is no suspense in the race for the House of Representatives: Republicans, who oppose the President and his Democratic majority in the Senate, will preserve and perhaps slightly expand their House majority. The main battle is for the Senate, with one-third of its seats in play: 33 incumbent senators running for another six-year term, plus another three vacancies created by retirements.
Traditionally, sitting senators have a big advantage over challengers, but the party in control of the White House almost always loses votes in the midterms. President Obama's popularity is at a record low, and some Democratic candidates have tried to distance themselves from him during the campaign.
Democrats currently hold 55 of 100 Senate seats, so Republicans need six seats to secure a majority. Democrats have to defend seats in 21 states of 36 states, seven of which were carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 2012.
The consensus is that Democrats are certain to lose two seats in Montana and South Dakota, and are at risk of losing in another nine states: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. The Republicans are in real danger of losing seats only in Kentucky and Kansas.
Nevertheless, the race for control of the Senate has remained close. Some US media outlets are using complicated forecasting models that aggregate public opinion polls and use statistical analysis. FiveThirtyEight – a well-respected model that has successfully predicted election outcomes since 2008 – puts Republican chances of winning the Senate at 69 percent. However, the Democrats still win in 31 percent of the tens of thousands of possible scenarios.
WHAT HAPPENS IF DEMOCRATS LOSE THE SENATE
Because of the system of checks and balances enshrined in the US Constitution, Congress and the president cannot act without each other on major issues. For years, the Democratic and Republican parties have shown a growing inability to work together.
The Republican majority in the House of Representatives has blocked most of the Obama administration's major initiatives, so the president has been forced to craft policy through executive orders where he has the authority. However, loss of the Senate will put the final nail in the coffin of Obama's agenda.
When control of Congress is split between the parties, the houses have to make concessions to pass bills. But if Republicans win the Senate, they will be able to override Democratic opposition, pushing through bills they support for the president to either sign into law as written, or veto. Republican obstruction of the president's nominees to the judicial and executive branches requiring Senate approval will also intensify.
In the domestic policy, the president will likely have to abandon his ambitious plan for immigration reform that seeks to provide legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants. The administration's other initiatives, such as tax reform or raising the minimum wage, could also be blocked. At the same time, the Republicans will not be able to reverse the president's signature healthcare reform law that they have fought unsuccessfully for years.
In the ongoing budget battles, Senate control will be of little use to Republicans. Control of only one of the two houses of Congress is enough to tie up the budget. Last fall, Republicans refused to pass legislation appropriating funds, causing the federal government to shut down for several days. However, Democrats did not take Republican threats to default on the foreign debt seriously, and record disapproval of Congress eventually forced lawmakers to strike a deal.
The victory of the Republican party in November elections will force Obama to recalibrate his foreign policy. Republicans take a far dimmer view than the White House of the possibility of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. If the United States, Russia and other international mediators agree to end international sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbing its nuclear program, the White House will have to meekly ask Congress to lift US sanctions.
On issues of military intervention abroad, Republicans and Democrats often compete over which party is more "hawkish." The parties often obligingly let each other through when it is necessary to shift the blame for failures on the political opponent.
Thus, when the Obama administration faced a strong public backlash to his plan to strike Syria in 2013, the president sought congressional approval to share responsibility. Members of Congress balked in the face of public opposition. However, when the Islamic State proclaimed a caliphate in territories seized from Iraq and Syria, President Obama felt he had public backing to start a new military operation in the Middle East without congressional approval.
A CHANGE IN RUSSIA POLICY?
Washington and Moscow agree that bilateral relations have deteriorated sharply and cannot be expected to improve in the near future. The US did not recognize Russia's reunification with Crimea following the March referendum, and accused Moscow of intervening in the Ukraine conflict – a charge that Russia categorically denies.
In 2014, the US imposed a number of sanctions on Russia, with targets ranging from individual Russian politicians and officials to entire sectors of the Russian economy (defense, financial, and energy). The US has also urged similar sanctions from the EU, which has far closer economic ties with Moscow and stands to lose much more from sanctions and possible Russian retaliation.
Both parties in Congress have generally supported the administration's course, with a number of bills to ratchet up sanctions on Russia still pending. Senators Carl Levin and Jim Inhofe have come out in support of supplying arms to the Ukrainian government to fight off the "Russian aggression."
However, the driving force behind the sanctions is the White House, which has not yet sought formal approval from Congress for a new round of measures. The majority of anti-Russian bills pending in Congress have sponsors from both parties.
Thus, there are no significant disagreements on sanctions between the White House and Congress. The ruling party and the opposition see eye to eye on Russia.
But anti-Russian rhetoric could intensify if the Republicans win a Senate majority and seek to bolster their traditional image as strong on national security. President Obama has "set the bar high" for attacks on Russia. Speaking from the UN rostrum, he described Russia as one of three main threats to the world along with the Ebola virus and terrorism, which the Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed as "a set of clichés and propagandistic slogans."
Republican "hawks" may use Senate control to try and outdo the president, while the defense industry lobby could use Russia as a convenient bogeyman in their fight against significant cuts to the defense budget as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down.
At the same time, the United States is not completely abandoning its collaboration with Russia, and ironically the White House finds it easier to work with Russia than with Congress on some foreign policy issues. For example, in the impasse between the White House and Congress over airstrikes against Syria in the fall of 2013, Russia brokered a deal to destroy Syria's chemical weapons that allowed President Obama save face while backing down from airstrikes.
Russia and the United States are also successfully working together in negotiations with Iran, where winning congressional approval to lift sanctions on Tehran promises to be an uphill battle for the White House.
