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Russian economy to return to pre-crisis level in 2012

Russian economy to return to pre-crisis level in 2012
 Russian economy to return to pre-crisis level in 2012  - Sputnik International
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The Russian economy will reach 2008 pre-crisis level as early as in 2012, a government source working in the financial and economic area said on Tuesday.

MOSCOW, September 1 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian economy will reach 2008 pre-crisis level as early as in 2012, a government source working in the financial and economic area said on Tuesday.

The Economic Development Ministry has upgraded its forecast of Russia's GDP growth in 2010 from 1% to 1.6% amid positive trends in the Russian economy, the source said.

The source said that if global oil prices rise further, Russia's economy could grow 3% or even more in 2010.

The global financial crisis forced Russia, which receives a large part of its revenues from oil exports, to gradually devalue the ruble amid capital flight and a fall in global oil prices, which declined from their peak of $147 per barrel in July 2008 to around $40 per barrel in early 2009, before climbing back to above $70 in recent weeks.

At the same time, the ministry has left unchanged its forecast of Russia's GDP decline in 2009 at 8.5%, the source said.

According to the ministry's updated forecast of the country's social and economic development until 2012, Russia's GDP is expected to grow 3% in 2011 (as compared with the earlier projection of 2.6%) and 4.3% in 2012 (previously 3.8%), the source said.

Investment is expected to decline 20% in 2009 compared with the previous figure of 21.4% and pick up 1% in 2010 (as compared with the previous figure of 0.4%), 7.2% in 2011 (5.7%) and 10.4% in 2012 (9%).

"Although investment will demonstrate high growth rates in 2011-2012, this will not compensate for the investment decline in 2009 and this will occur only in 2013," the source said.

The ministry has also upgraded its forecast of industrial output. In particular, industrial output will decline 12.4% in 2009 (against the previously projected figure of 12.5%) and expand 1.4% in 2010 (against 0.8% as previously projected), 2.2% in 2011 (1.7%) and 3.7% in 2012 (1.9%). The source added that the 2009 output decline would not be compensated for by 2012.

Russia's inflation could slow down to 1.6% in 2009 against the projected figure of 12%, 9-10% in 2010, 8% in 2011 and 7% in 2012, the source said.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said earlier in the day that Russia's federal budget revenues in 2010 will be more than the planned figure of 6.6 trillion rubles ($207.5 billion).

The global price of Russia's Urals oil blend is now expected to average $57 per barrel in 2009, compared with the projected figure of $54 per barrel, $58 per barrel in 2010 and $59 per barrel in 2011, Kudrin said.

 

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