MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov.)
Tehran announced Monday that it would resume uranium enrichment because, it said, the European Union is taking too long to submit proposals to solve Iran's nuclear problem.
It looks as though Iran and the EU are probing each other's positions before the next round of the nuclear talks.
Tehran described the previous round held by the European Trio - France, Germany and Britain - in London this May as constructive. Both sides refused to comment in detail, but agreed that the EU would submit its proposed final agreement on the matter in late July or early August. The EU suggested August 6, which by the Iranian calendar marks the beginning of the first working week following the inauguration of the new president, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.
But several days after reaching an agreement, Iranian analysts and politicians, including members of the parliament, openly hinted that Europe was deliberately holding back proposals until a new government had been formed. Iran then announced its intention to resume uranium enrichment at the Isfahan conversion facility, a decision likely to have predictably negative consequences.
The EU had repeatedly warned that the resumption of uranium enrichment at Isfahan or Natanz would be viewed as a breach of the moratorium and would result in an almost instantaneous submission of Iran's "nuclear file" to the UN Security Council.
This apparently does not worry Tehran, which knows that submission of the file would suit only the U.S., which dreams of introducing economic sanctions against Iran under the pretext of violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But this would be a headache for all other countries, including the European Trio, which wants to get multimillion-dollar contracts from Iran's Atomic Energy Organization for the construction of nuclear reactors; Russia, currently the only player on Iran's nuclear market; and China, which needs Iran as a strategic partner in a regional confrontation with the U.S.
It may seem that Iran is playing on EU problems by periodically announcing the resumption of its enrichment programs, thus seeking to gain more concessions in the Trio's plans to settle the nuclear problem.
But there may be another explanation for Tehran's policy of declaring its right to create a full nuclear-fuel cycle - something fiercely opposed by the U.S., which suspects that Iran wants to get nuclear weapons. Tehran may be deliberately pushing the U.S. towards confrontation, possibly a military one. It knows that the Americans are not ready for full-scale hostilities in Iran, because they have not settled matters in Iraq and Afghanistan, and pinpoint strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities will not produce the desired effect, as in Iraq. In addition, this will give Iran a reason for creating a nuclear program regardless of Washington's stance.
Observers believe that there are proponents and opponents of the uranium enrichment program in Tehran, and it is not clear what stand the new president will take. Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad announced in his election program that "national interests will be the main sphere of activity of the people's government," clearly hinting that these interests include not just oil and gas but also the nuclear project.
He has also outlined Iran's national interests in nuclear energy by calling for its comprehensive development "on the basis of the inalienable national right." Unless Tehran changes its stand, passions will flare over the Iranian "nuclear file" at the next round of the talks.
