In the opinion of Yevgeni Yasin, rector of the State University Higher Economics School, the reason for the slowdown last autumn and, possible, next year is the state's excessive pressure on business. It is, above all, the case of the oil company YUKOS, which has to pay about 16.6 billion dollars as taxes (including 4 billion dollars already paid).
Today we are witnessing a conflict between the state and the business community, Yasin said, with the latter choosing the "don't stick out your neck" tactics. As a result, we are witnessing a downfall in business activity and production.
Thus, the reason for the slowdown does not lie in the economic sphere. Owing to risks, created by the state in above all the YUKOS case, Russian business is unwilling to invest in the Russian economy.
According to Mr. Yasin, this average-term tendency will preserve within the next two to three years. Overcoming it requires the protection of property rights and the easing of the tax regime.
Alexander Shokhin, president of the Higher Economics School and chairman of the observation council of the Russian Investment Group Renascence Capital, described today's relations between the state and business as the crisis of confidence. In the future business, he believes, will get accustomed and "try to get ensured against the policy of the authorities" by "using the borrowing instruments and its own means by taking abroad and investing in foreign assets". In addition, business will try to broaden the involvement of foreign investors in the capital structure of Russian companies for the protection of the rights of property.
Shokhin also noted that a tendency towards nationalisation is surfacing in Russia. His reasoning is prompted by the activity of Gazpromneft (Gazprom's subsidiary, whose chief Sergei Bogdanchikov has said that his company has an eye on Yuganhskneftegaz, Slavneft and Surgutneftegaz). In this situation, the state should not keep mum but directly announce its desire to build up state capitalism, Shokhin said.
In turn, Andrei Belousov, expert from the Microeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts Centre, said that Russia's economic slowdown is conventional because a growth of domestic markets is being observed. Its economy is being rescheduled. Machine-building has reached the maximal growth over the last four years. This year, external investments have set a record: in the third quarter, their total increment constituted 40 and direct investments over 20 percent.
Overall, the policy of tough control, need in the past years for economic stabilisation, has performed its role and now is the time for the state to change priorities, round-table members noted. Support for small- and medium-scale business is what is required now.
Experts are also unanimous that the state should more intensively develop the transport network, infrastructure of financial markets and innovations, which are to provide an impetus for an economic growth.
