The ultimatum by the interim Kyrgyz government for ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to surrender looks more like the beginning of a trade-off than a prelude to a civil war, a leading Russian Central Asia expert, Arkady Dubnov, told RIA Novosti on Tuesday.
"It looks like the interim government wants very much to refrain from new bloodshed. They are trying to keep the country from new bloody riots," Dubnov said.
Bakiyev fled after riots in which scores of people were killed. He is now holed up in southern Kyrgyzstan - his traditional power base. The opposition leaders who came to power mainly have support in the northern regions of the impoverished country.
Toppled Kyrgyz President Bakiyev has no clear definition on the situation in Kyrgyzstan; however, the interim government is trying to refrain from provoking a new wave of unrest, the expert said.
"Bakiyev doesn't have a clear understanding of the situation in Kyrgyzstan or in the world," Dubnov said.
Kyrgyzstan's interim government, headed by opposition-appointed Roza Otunbayeva, issued on Tuesday a decree to strip Bakiyev of his presidential immunity and threatened to arrest him if he did not return to the country's capital of Bishkek.
"The new authorities have limited their actions to warnings to Bakiyev," Dubnov said, adding that the opposition was attempting to restrict him from escalating further the conflict in Kyrgyzstan.
"Bakiyev could probably get several concessions from the provisional government," the expert said. Bakiyev could possibly request amnesty from the new government. However, he has also said he does not fear any military or other operations that could lead to his arrest.
Dubnov believes the president's brother, Zhanysh, who headed security service could be punished by the provisional government.
Zhanysh Bakiyev, who headed the country's security service, acknowledged he was the person who ordered the shooting of protesters. Obviously this statement would not have a positive impact on Bakiyev's political future.
MOSCOW, April 13 (RIA Novosti, by Tsvetelina Miteva)