Russian Lightning: Will a Direct Hit Cleave Asunder the EU?

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Flags of Russia, EU, France and coat of arms of Nice on the city's promenade - Sputnik International
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While Franco’s falangist forces slaughtered workers and Nazi dive bombers blitzed loyalist towns, the world watched with both hope and horror as the Soviet Union’s Republican allies fought a bloody struggle against fascism.

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The Spanish Civil War, a brutal counter revolution against Soviet influence, left 500,000 dead. But could the EU’s Russophobia unleash similar passions today? 

In fact, the situation is so perilous Ukraine’s almost 10,000 dead testify that the paranoid desire to ‘contain’ Russia is as capable of fueling gruesome conflict today just as it was in Spain from 1936 to 1939. 

Indeed the parallels between the Spanish Civil War and Ukraine are chilling: both conflicts exploded when fascist insurgents overthrew democratically elected governments that leaned towards Russia and both were worsened by western geopolitical interests - the Third Reich and Italy in the case of Franco’s Nationalist Falange and, in Ukraine’s case, the EU-NATO Axis.  

In both the Spanish Civil War and Ukraine, those international powers who viewed popularly elected Russian-leaning governments as a threat allied with local fascist militias who then went on to commit systematic atrocities as they usurped elected authority.   

The Spanish Civil War and Ukraine are terrifying portents of what might happen should euroskeptics, with an inherently favorable view of Russia, come to power as the EU goes into terminal crisis.  

Most worrying of all, some might say the EU is in such a state of political and cultural mayhem that the ideological barriers forming in the minds of its citizens compare to the polarized 1930s mindset of Spaniards as their country slid into civil war. But is this overstating the case?  

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Politically, the Crimea referendum exposed the weaknesses at the heart of the EU. Many euroskeptic movements understood that the EU and the CIA had jointly triggered the conflict. UKIP publicly stated that President Putin reacted ‘in the only way possible.’  

As the months ground by, the political cracks in the EU’s crumbling anti-Russian edifice only widened with parties like the Afd and the Northern League calling for an end to sanctions.    

EU expansion is an even more divisive issue, with populist parties seeing it as both anti-Russian and further evidence of the eurocracy’s dictatorial nature, while stealth plots to seize control of member states’ armed forces by forming an EU Army in the name of containing a ‘resurgent’ Russia are viewed as an outright threat.    

All of this might be mere political maneuvering if the EU were not precariously built upon two monumental fault lines: the first is the erosion of national sovereignty without which further EU integration is impossible and the second is mass migration.  

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But could a plethora of issues like EU exit referendums, border control, TTIP, pipeline geopolitics, NATO’s eastern build up, and EU enlargement fuse with popular anger at the loss of national sovereignty and the widespread fear of mass migration to create a highly combustible situation where, just as in the Spanish Civil War, Russia is seen as both nemesis and saviour?   

If Russia fully flexed its ideological potential as an anti-globalist state that championed sovereign democracy and national identity, it would hurl a lightning bolt of such fury, it would cleave asunder the EU tree’s rotten wood and shatter it straight down the middle.  

The reasons are clear: European Commission bullying has sown powerful euroskeptic parties that are now winning, on average, a massive 20% of the vote. These parties see the primacy of EU laws as reducing them to the status of vassals ruled by faceless, unelected, and ultimately corrupt eurocrats. There is sharp division now between those who feel comfortable with EU integration and those who see it as rule by a foreign junta in Brussels.  

One side sees Russia as a state that remains politically regressive, a cultural anachronism that must be kept apart and is best undermined both ideologically from within and by the incremental increase of strategic military pressure from without. The other side, in blinding contrast, sees Russia as a strong, fully sovereign state that is ruled by patriotic leaders and in the firm interests of its own people. Far from being a threat, it is a model to be envied and embraced as an ally.  

Any serious conflict with Russia sparked by the EU-NATO Axis’ miscalculations in the Baltic, Moldova, or Georgia, or through the hybrid warfare of coloured revolution, would render Europe potentially ungovernable as existing divisions are magnified.    

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Mass migration and the asylum crisis have utterly breached the contract between the EU elites and the ruled. EU Societies are polarized between those idealists and opportunists who adhere to the Wilkommenskultur and the millions of diehard refuseniks who see mass migration as a threat to their identity, political rights, and security.  

The feeling of frustration is immense as indigenous EU citizens must grapple with statistics that predict they will be reduced to minority status in their own countries by 2050.  

As a result, millions feel they have been betrayed by the elites who have shoved rapid and unwanted cultural change down their throats. Ordinary working people are becoming more fearful, more disgusted, and more convinced that they have no voice.

Patriotic Surge: In recent national elections the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) narrowly missed the presidency in a second round of voting by just 35,000 votes with 35.1%. The Swiss People’s Party polled 29% and Hungary’s Jobbik and the Danish People’s Party are at 21% respectively. Most euroskeptic voters are blue collar workers who pay the highest price- victimized by EU imposed migrant quotas and the radical ideology of multiculturalism.  

With migrant crime soaring and terrorists infiltrating the multitudes traipsing north, suspicion has fallen upon the EU elites with claims that the crisis is orchestrated by Trotskyites in suits, like Federica Mogherini, who have colluded with NATO to siphon almost a million bored young men of fighting age into Europe’s heartland. Mogherini, the EU foreign minister, believes not just in open borders, but in a firm alliance between the EU Socialists and Islamism.

In June 2015, she stated: "I am not afraid to say that political Islam should be part of the picture. Religion plays a role in politics – not always for good, not always for bad. Religion can be part of the process. What makes the difference is whether the process is democratic or not."

The EU believes it can ride the Islamist tiger to a point where Leftist power is consolidated at the grassroots level, where popular democracy through the activation of Islamist supporters ensures EU dominance- even as white working class voters desert the socialist parties just as they are fleeing the urban areas with their immigrant-dominated no go zones. And if this means the enhancement of western geopolitical influence in North Africa and the Middle East then all the better.  

Viewed from this perspective, the EU’s fake tolerance suddenly begins to look like a strategic political calculation that victimizes both its own citizens and millions of hapless migrants. But make no mistake, for both the European Union and NATO- it’s a double win.  

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Just as no one denies that Europeans are being worn down psychologically by the constant state of high alert and nerve jarring false alarms, no one doubts either that the migrant pumps could not be turned off if there was a political will to do so.  

In fact, Admiral West, the former Chief of the British Naval Staff, has said that the practice of deploying NATO vessels to rescue migrants turns the ships into magnets- encouraging more to risk their lives and confirming the promises of the people smugglers that life in Europe is ‘easy.’

All that is really needed, according to Admiral West, is a blockade of North Africa that would take no more than 13 frigates and a few helicopter squadrons.  

Because the situation is so fluid, no one can predict where the EU will unravel: we might see pinprick immigrant revolts that overwhelm European security agencies much like the Tet Offensive.

Perhaps the Hungarians will refuse to remove the barbed wire that precariously protects their southern borders and that a constitutional crisis, similar to that in Poland today, will pit the Visegrad Group against the European Commission in a battle of wills.  It is more likely, however, that it is the center that collapses first as terrified and frustrated Germans, convinced that their country is lurching to failed state status within a generation, take to the streets en masse.     

History never truly repeats itself: ideologies dissolve, or are discarded, and modern Russia would have more in common with predominantly traditionalist working class Europeans fighting for their culture and identity rather than progressive EU Socialists who not only created this situation in the first place- but view it as a work of the highest moral achievement and who would not hesitate to spread mass migration mayhem, class warfare, and social turmoil to Russia, if ever they could.  

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Yet power is a constant vector and if the Bundesrepublik were to experience serious civil unrest, Russia would be as relevant to Germany in 2020- just as she was to Spaniards in 1936.  

Whatever unfolds as the EU enters its death throes, the ideological divisions are already painfully manifest and by a twist of fate, Russia’s presence as a bastion of national tradition and cultural continuity weaves like a thread into the EU’s inner turmoil of competing narratives where, without really trying, Russia is both saint and predator as a frightened and divided west projects its hopes and fears upon her.  

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