Professor Yossi Mekelberg, Senior Consulting Research Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House & Head of International Relations, Social Sciences and Law Programme, Regent's University, London has commented on Israel considering the option of conducting strikes against Iran.
Sputnik: According to NYT Magazine, Israeli officials have been considering the option of carrying out a unilateral airstrike against Iran, specifically its nuclear facilities. In your view, how likely is this?
Yossi Mekelberg: Well, Israel is planning to strike targets in Iran for the last 20 years. Because it looks at the nuclear programme within Iran, it's defined by Israel as an existential threat. Some governments more than others. Between if you are planning it, and you would expect any military and government to have done to fend off international threats, and the ability to execute, there is still quite a distance. I think at certain points in the last 20 years that Israel was close to this, and at certain other points it was more an idea, or a back up plan to the diplomatic one. But it's still something that is planned, but without coordination with the United States it would be very difficult to execute.
Sputnik: Follow up - are there any circumstances under which Israel could strike Iran?
Yossi Mekelberg: Yes, definitely circumstances. I think the rhetoric between countries, I think we are entering definitely. There was a time in the past, circumstances in the early 2000s, in which I think this was probably closer, before the agreement on nuclear with Iran. I think Israel defined Iran, if it manages to develop nuclear weapons or close to this, crossing the threshold of producing nuclear military capability is a red line - they would use military force. In the case of the United States not doing so, NATO is not doing so, this is a red line. So I think yes, I think we need to take it as a working assumption that Israel might not stay idle in case of Iran crossing the threshold of developing a nuclear military capability.
Sputnik: The magazine’s report further indicated that such a strike has previously not received support from the US, as the Obama administration was fearful of the possible consequences for American forces in the region. The report also said that such an airstrike is more likely to gain support from the Trump administration. In your view, how much does US influence over Israeli political decisions, particularly when it comes to Iran, depend on who sits in the White House?
Yossi Mekelberg: Obviously, the close relations between the United States and Israel dictates that there is a great influence coming from Washington to Jerusalem. But having said that, Israel in the past took independent actions. It dealt with the nuclear [site] in Iraq for instance, and other occasions; or just recently bombing Iraq, Israel never bothered even to inform the United States, [or] consult. So, yes there is an influence from the United States. Again, for the United States also because of its national interest in the Middle East, they'll tell the Israelis that they're crossing the line. But Israel also is a sovereign state, it sometimes takes decisions that is not necessarily making the White House happy.
Sputnik: How likely do you believe it is that Israeli tensions with Iran are a motivating factor for the US pressure on the country?
Yossi Mekelberg: See, one of the things about the foreign policy that is coming from Washington is that it is very difficult to actually understand what Donald Trump and his administration really want. Do they want to pressure diplomatically? Are they read to use military force? For example, they denied to use military force in the last minute a few months ago, they were very close to use military force in Iran just two or three months ago.
As long as we find it challenging to understand the US’s strategy in the Middle East right now and particularly in Iran, it is difficult to know how are they going to coordinate and in what way correlate with the policy of Israel. But my idea is Netanyahu and Trump are coordinating as far as trying to stop Iran. But we heard only a few weeks ago that President Trump talking and changing track and we saw how he changed track with North Korea. One day he was 'rocket man' and the next month he was the best of friends and the future of North Korea. So we are dealing with a very unpredictable administration in Washington, so it is very much wait and see.
Views and opinions, expressed in the article are those of Yossi Mekelberg and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
