MOSCOW, December 23 (RIA Novosti)
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov to control Chechen money
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov in charge of the reconstruction of Chechnya, which amounts to a full-scale project.
It would be best to leave the task of reconstructing a region where the situation is not exactly peaceful to military construction units, said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist of Troika Dialog. "We do not have complete information about the situation in Chechnya and therefore can assume that it is not tranquil. It would be logical to leave reconstruction to military construction units who are better prepared" for such a situation, he said.
Yevgeny Yasin, research director of the Higher School of Economics, has a more politically motivated opinion. He said the new power granted to Ivanov could be seen as a chance offered to a potential presidential candidate. "All national projects have been entrusted to (first Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry) Medvedev. They are the aces that can be used in the election campaign," he said. The favorite has not been appointed yet and members of Putin's team can compete for the honor.
"The president gave the Chechen project to the defense minister so as to create a semblance of honest competition," the economist said. Sergei Ivanov "has a chance to demonstrate his ability to restore order in Chechnya, normalize the situation for the people and, most importantly, create an impression that fewer funds are being stolen. If he gets the laurels, he will be crowned with them."
The Chechen reconstruction project is a prize in itself and a real instrument of economic and political influence, which attracts the government's attention.
Vremya Novostei
Russian business refuses to subsidize former Prime Minister
Some of the businessmen friendly to former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who helped him to establish MK-Analitika consultancy a year ago, have totally ruled out any financial participation in his political campaigning. What is more, they have quickly moved to put an early end to their partnership in the consulting business of the only man who has publicly stated that he is ready to lead united democratic forces into the State Duma and presidential elections.
"Since his ultimate commitment to politics is now clear, he was merely asked to return the funds borrowed for business purposes," claims a source of the newspaper.
The former prime minister concedes that he does not feel at home in the opposition environment. He says leaders of the democratic parties have too many problems between them and "they each nurture their ambitions." The only one to agree to join Kasyanov without any terms was Irina Khakamada, leader of the Our Choice party.
Next year the former prime minister is planning to spend time uniting all democratic forces. All leaders of the democratic opposition agree that there is at most one year left in which to put together an effective union.
Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS) have some experience in joining their tickets together in a series of regional elections and no doubt want to play key roles in the future wide-ranging coalition. It is apparent although that the presidential chances of Grigory Yavlinsky or Nikita Belykh as a joint candidate of the democratic forces are at this moment no greater than Kasyanov's.
If the resultant coalition includes Yabloko and the SPS, their odds of winning a Duma election campaign in 2007 are great. According to the latest opinion polls, only two parties - United Russia and the Communist party (KPRF) - are likely to cross the seven percent threshold barrier to the lower chamber of parliament.
Anyway, in 2005, the Democrats were never able either to identify a common platform, or put up a recognized leader able to compete as an equal with the party of power at presidential and parliamentary elections.
Moskovskiye Novosti
Russia-Ukraine gas war threatens Europe's energy security
Judging by the fighting stance of Moscow and Kiev, the problem of gas delivery and transit prices will not be settled by yearend. This means that Russia will reduce gas supply to Ukraine and Kiev will most probably retaliate by limiting Russian gas transit to Europe, said Vladimir Milov, president of the Energy Policy Institute.
The connection is apparent, as Ukraine is the biggest export corridor annually transiting 130 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, which is 75% of Russian gas export and nearly a third of EU gas consumption. The construction of the North European Gas Pipeline will not change this situation, as there is no alternative to Ukrainian pipelines for delivering Russian gas to central, eastern and southern Europe.
A curtailment of Russian transit will affect Europe's energy system and severely damage Russia's image. European politicians hint that problems with gas supply would have grave consequences, including a potential revision of delivery terms under long-term contracts, which are the apple of Gazprom's eye.
To put it mildly, Russia's stance at talks on gas prices is not constructive. Prices are not raised by 3.2 times in a normal market. But Russia is not ready for compromise and is putting forward new demands. Even the Soviet Union did not act so aggressively; it continued to supply gas to the West at the height of the Cold War.
However, it is not Gazprom who sets the tune at the talks with Ukraine. The political order comes from the Kremlin, which has decided to take revenge on Viktor Yushchenko and damage the image of the Ukrainian government before the March 2006 election of the Ukrainian parliament. As a result, Europe is facing an energy crisis, Ukraine may have heating problems this winter, and Russia may suffer a wave of anti-Russian sentiments.
Vedomosti
AvtoVAZ to review relations with General Motors
Igor Yesipovsky, a former Rosoboronexport man, will become the new AvtoVAZ CEO. The first thing he is going to do is review the plant's relations with General Motors.
According to Yesipovsky, all matters relating to the GM AvtoVAZ joint venture will be examined at the next meeting of its directors. "AvtoVAZ is providing 80% of components for the JV, but is seeing no profits. The reason has to be investigated," explains a source close to top Rosoboronexport management.
The changed ownership of AvtoVAZ may also trigger a change in the JV owners. The American concern can buy out AvtoVAZ's share in the venture for $100 million if a new shareholder takes over the automaker. However, Boris Alyoshin, head of the Russian Industrial Agency and member of the AvtoVAZ board of directors, said yesterday that it was "only a rumor" that AvtoVAZ was selling its share. He thinks the buy-out issue can be resolved later, while the state just "provided effective management for the plant."
Alyoshin estimates AvtoVAZ requires about $5 billion for all its programs, and this sum can be granted by the state in the form of credit guarantees and federal program financing.
"AvtoVAZ's debt to the state may also be converted to investments," he added.
"You can invest $5 billion only in partnership with a foreign company," objects senior Uralsib analyst Vyacheslav Smolyaninov. He is not sure that Rosoboronexport will be able to spend the money effectively and believes it is time for the auto-giant to take a closer look at production costs and revise unwarranted prices for components and cars.
Rosoboronexport is a dealer in arms and military hardware, while the automobile business is something else, recalls Igor Korovkin, head of the regulation committee of the Association of Russian Automakers. "But Rosoboronexport is within easier reach of state money than any auto company," he remarked.
Biznes
China tries to change Russian pipeline's route
In its attempts to persuade Russia to supply the planned East Siberian oil pipeline with a branch to Daqing, China has gone public. PetroChina has announced that it is doubling the capacity of its refinery in the northeast of the country with plans for Russian oil and emphasized that without it the refinery will not be able to work at full capacity. Market experts, however, do not believe such panicky statements.
A transnational pipeline project, which has not been endorsed yet, remains a bone of contention between Japan and China. Russia is considering two variants: either to build the export route only to a port on the Pacific coast or to attach a branch from Skovorodino to China's Daqing.
Experts are inclined to think that PetroChina is playing a cunning game. It is unlikely that the company would launch construction without having secured oil supplies both from Siberia and, possibly, from the Caspian Sea as well, says Andrei Gromadin, analyst with MDM Bank. China has enough valid contracts with Russia to supply the refinery that needs about 11 million tons of oil annually, agrees Konstantin Gulyayev, leading analyst at the Region group. Oil will be shipped by railway.
Rosneft has agreed to deliver 9 million tons of oil annually to China, totaling 48.8 million tons by 2010. The deliveries are being used as security against the $6 billion loan provided by a group of Chinese banks to purchase Yuganskneftegaz. Yukos, which has refused the services of Transneft, plans to supply 2 million tons to China. In 2006, the country will receive nearly 15 million tons of Russian oil, and after the pipeline is constructed, supplies will amount to 30 million tons.
Gulyayev supposed that by making public remarks China is trying to send a signal that it is high time to launch the pipeline's construction. It is unlikely that the Chinese company's management made the statement based on some agreements with the Russian government or Transneft, he said. "Such things are either not commented at all or announced officially," he explained.
Izvestia
TNK-BP selling off gas stations and deposits
A new phase in the redivision of the oil market has begun in Russia and in favor of Russian companies. Half-British-owned TNK-BP has had to part with some of its oil and refining assets in addition to selling its license for the development of a large Sakhalin field. The total works out at about $1 billion. The buyers were Russneft and Gazprom. Now TNK-BP is pondering the sale of Udmurtneft.
Announcing the assets sale came as early as fall of this year. At the time its head Robert Dudley said that the assets were "devouring" big investments, while the company had other development priorities. But no one could explain how profit making filling stations could "devour" investments.
Soon a willing buyer appeared to ease some of the burdensome load. A small oil company, called Russneft, bought from the Russian-British venture its Saratovneftegaz enterprise with an annual output of 1.6 million metric tons of oil, the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery with a capacity of 6.7 million tons a year, Orenburgnefteprodukt, which owns more than 100 gas stations, and Neftemaslozavod, which produces motor oils. Russneft did not end its buying spree there; it was able to negotiate the purchase of a further 75% stake in the Krasnodarekoneft refinery with 3.1 million tons in capacity.
The market sentiment is that the purchased assets are not operating at peak efficiency. "The Orsk plant has a low conversion rate and outdated equipment," says Mikhail Zak from Veles-Kapital brokerage, "but runaway demand and the high profit margin when selling the fuel domestically make even such investments highly profitable." Additionally, Russneft has finally acquired its own refining capacities to become the tenth fully-fledged vertically integrated holding in Russia.
But TNK-BP did not stop there and sold to Gazprom its subsidiary - TNK-Sakhalin, which possesses the license to develop the Lopukhovsky field near Sakhalin Island with 130 million tons of oil in probable reserves.
