Moscow, November 9 (RIA Novosti)
KOMMERSANT
Experts on Russia's Possible Disintegration
The Kremlin has decided to overhaul the national power vertical and explains such reforms because of the threat of Russia's disintegration. However, experts believe that this threat has diminished considerably since the 1990s.
The Fund for Peace and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have said that Russia ranks fifty-ninth among 60 of the most unstable countries. And the situation in all other post-Soviet republics is even more involved.
Western and Russian experts are constantly saying that Russia may fall apart. Russian leaders explained yet another reform to strengthen the state power system by such arguments. For instance, President Vladimir Putin moved to abolish general gubernatorial elections after the September 2004 Beslan hostage crisis. The Russian head of state hinted that certain forces wanted to demolish Russia and to deprive it of its best regions.
According to independent experts, the new rating does not prove that the Kremlin is right. Rostislav Turovsky, head of the regional studies department, Center for Political Technologies, believes that "regional authorities are now completely dependent on federal authorities. Consequently, they cannot, do not want and will not behave like separatists."
Sociologist Iosif Diskin of the Population Institute (Russian Academy of Sciences) believes that federal districts may cause Russia's disintegration. "An all-out geopolitical struggle for their tremendous natural resources is now unfolding. It is extremely important that federal districts should not turn into state structures," Diskin stresses.
Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the National Strategy Institute, believes that instability ratings and Transparency International corruption ratings are based on news reports. "This is the public's perception of instability, rather than an instability rating itself. The allegedly unstable Belarus and Ukraine are considerably more stable than Russia. This document does not list truly unstable countries, such as Georgia and Moldova. It merely glorifies its authors," Belkovsky said.
MOSKOVSKY KOMSOMOLETS
Oligarchs and Opposition Change Tactics
The new political season began with huge expectations by emigrant oligarchs and non-parliamentary opposition. Optimists expected an Orange Revolution, realists called for action and proposed different projects, from forming a single mass democratic party to a "shift to the left" and even a "Russian tilt" of entire opposition. None of the projects has succeeded. Neither has the attempt to create a single anti-Putin right- and left-wing front. As a result, the style and methods of the non-parliamentary opposition, under the influence of oligarchs that back it, are being restructured.
It is a fact that the opposition is divided into "moderate" and "irreconcilable" but it does not mean a political split. Preserving a common tough strategy against President Putin's regime, Leonid Nevzlin and Boris Berezovsky apply different tactics to political forces they can influence.
To all appearances, the emigrant oligarchs have staked on diminishing the conflict with the authorities, which has proved non-productive, and bringing respectable figures like ex-prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov or Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky to a calmer political field to which they are accustomed.
Kasyanov's evolution is striking: he has become moderate once again. "Many moves of the authorities are of a wrong nature, and in this sense I am their opponent," what else can it be, but the external willingness to work in the field marked by the government? Even more telling is his assessment of the economic situation ("a crisis is not to be expected"), the call for "not falling for provocations," the actual abandoning of the plans to form his own party and the extremely weak claim of leadership in a democrats' united front.
A poll, conducted by the Levada Center on November 4, shows that only 4% are ready to vote for a single list of democratic parties, while United Russia received a gigantic 43%, the Communist Party a firm 22%, followed by the LDPR at 10% and Rodina 6%. People do not like "irreconcilables:" according to an October 18 survey of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, VTsIOM, 32% of respondents believe that the chances of democrats would improve if they supported the government's initiatives.
Apparently, opinion polls were among the decisive factors that made oligarchs and opposition moderate their tactics.
GAZETA.RU
Government May Abolish LNG Export Duty by Year-End
In late November - early December, the Russian government may abolish the export duty on liquefied natural gas. The proposal, actively lobbied by Gazprom, has already gained support from Economic Development Minister German Gref and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. If the duty is abolished, the state will lose at least _250 million.
Mr. Gref says that the move will provide "a powerful incentive for attracting investment to LNG production." However, he does not rule out that the abolishment will be temporary in order to ensure that LNG projects pay off. As to the Finance Ministry, it advocates "gradual abolishment of all export duties," said Alexander Sakovich, deputy head of the ministry's customs payments department.
Analysts tend to assess Gazprom's LNG production and sales projects more pessimistically.
"The abolishment of export duties is beneficial for one single company, Gazprom," maintains Valery Nesterov of the Troika Dialog investment vehicle. "In fact, the idea is to make the development of the Shtokman field (in the Russian sector of the Barents Sea) cheaper, which is definitely good for the gas monopolist."
LNG duty abolishment will deprive the state of several hundred million euros. "At present the duty is calculated at 30% of the LNG sale price minus transportation costs. That makes approximately _40 per ton. If we assume that Gazprom will export about 5 million tons of LNG annually, the state will be losing at least _250 million," says Dmitry Lukashov, analyst with Aton.
Mr. Sakovich argues that "the abolishment will not affect the budget. Of course, the state will carry certain losses, we call it missed profit, but investment is more important than the current fiscal policy."
Experts warn that Gazprom will have to fight hard for its proposal. "It will be extremely difficult to win the government's endorsement of Gazprom's proposal, the gas giant and Mr. Gref have many opponents," Mr. Nesterov says. "Besides, the abolishment will create a precedent, which will allow other companies to demand similar moves with regard to their products."
BIZNES
Russia Preparing a Migration Revolution
Next year the Federal Migration Service is prepared, by way of experiment, to grant amnesty and give legal status to a million migrant laborers . The FMS believes that to legalize guest workers would be far simpler and less expensive than deporting them. But the basic reason for the possible amnesty is the catastrophic shortage of labor, provoked by a demographic crisis.
"Today 80% of all migrant workers in Russia are from the former Soviet republics, and at the moment there is no alternative to recruiting fresh labor except through migrants," Vyacheslav Postavnin, head of the FMS external labor migration department, said yesterday.
The experiment will be carried out in eight regions, including Moscow and the surrounding area. If the FMS's idea is endorsed, employers may be spared up to 5 years imprisonment or a fine of up to 500,000 rubles ($17,338) for using illegal labor. But they will have to pay legal wages to migrants and cover their insurance costs.
The idea already has the backing of one high-profile supporter - Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref. He suggested giving up annual migrant labor quotas in the future, his explanation being that Russia cannot keep up its economic growth rates without inviting guest workers.
Experts and businessmen have been wary of the proposal. "The idea has a flip side. No one can tell what employers may prefer: no problems with supervising authorities, or no employment costs for migrants," says the head of the law department of a construction firm, who requested anonymity.
Employers themselves have a vested interest in illegal migration, claims Tatiana Maleyeva, director of the Independent Social Policy Institute, because an illegal worker costs them less. So, she predicts, "not only foreign-hating xenophobic political forces, but also many politically uninvolved employers will oppose legalization."
VEDOMOSTI
Case of Laundering Kremlin Reconstruction Money Reopened
Pavel Borodin, former head of the Russian president's business administration department and current State Secretary of the Union of Belarus and Russia, has been reminded about his presumed involvement in laundering funds allocated for the reconstruction of the Kremlin. Stefano Dragone, the prosecutor of Trento in northern Italy, has reopened the case. He thinks he has found the money laundered by Borodin in the accounts of his daughter Yekaterina Siletskaya. A warrant was issued to arrest her.
The case of embezzlement of budgetary funds by Mabetex and Mercata was initiated by Swiss prosecutors in 1999. The Swiss claimed that $25.6 million was paid out in bribes for granting the reconstruction contract to a group of persons connected with Borodin. He was detained in the United States in 2001 and turned over to Swiss law enforcement officers. However, the Swiss prosecutors failed to prove his guilt and the case was closed in 2002.
The Italian prosecutor claims that Yekaterina Siletskaya was in the money-laundering group (it included also ex-director of Rosvooruzhenie Yevgeny Ananyev) and embezzled over $5 million.
"Borodin's daughter did not figure in the bribe case. The point at issue is probably that some of the money was deposited in her Italian accounts," said Russia's ex-prosecutor general Yuri Skuratov who initiated the Borodin case in Switzerland. He thinks it would be useless to try to prove the case without the assistance of Russia, but "Russian prosecutors will refuse to provide proof because those who closed the Mabetex case now head" the Office of the Prosecutor General.
The Prosecutor General's Office refused to comment yesterday.
Katinka Barysch, chief economist of the Center for European Reform, has no regard for the Italian prosecution but thinks it is a thousand times better than the Russian one, which prosecutes for political reasons. Russian prosecution can do somebody's political will, while the Italian prosecution cannot, Barysch said. There is no political lining in this case.
Ivan Makushok, the press secretary of Pavel Borodin, said charges brought against his boss's daughter were an attempt to "discredit (Borodin) on the eve of a session of the State Council of Belarus and Russia set for late November, which will discuss one of the wordings of the Constitutional Act of the Union State."
NOVYE IZVESTIA
Bust to Felix Dzerzhinsky Opened in Moscow
Operatives of Moscow's Main Police Department were quite surprised to see a bust to Felix Dzerzhinsky once again at 38 Petrovka Street yesterday morning. This is quite explainable because Dzerzhinsky's bust was removed soon after the abortive pro-Communist coup in 1991. But human rights activists were outraged in connection with the decision to replace the bust.
"Moscow police veterans decided to replace the bust because Dzerzhinsky symbolized the Soviet era, and because he founded the Soviet secret police, or the Cheka," Moscow police chief Vladimir Pronin said. The incumbent police generals could not but fulfil their will. "This work of art was repeatedly displayed at various exhibitions and art contests," Pronin told journalists.
This surprised even high-ranking police officers. "They told us nothing about it. The workers just came and installed the bust on its pedestal, without saying a word. Of course, everybody was surprised. But we cannot debate our bosses' decisions," a Moscow Police Department officer, who wished to remain anonymous, noted.
The bust to Dzerzhinsky and the police department building are guarded rather closely. Moreover, an iron fence surrounds the building. Anyone wishing to see this monument must therefore obtain a special pass. Communist supporters will only be able to admire it from the street. Nonetheless, passersby can clearly see Dzerzhinsky's famous features.
Human rights organizations have already said that the bust's return "shifts accents" and heralds a return to past ideals. "Dzerzhinsky's personal qualities are not the most important thing. But his name is directly linked with the introduction of arbitrary rule and a system of indiscriminate arrests and executions," Yan Rachinsky, co-chairman of the Memorial international human rights center's Moscow division, noted.
In his words, this means that Russia has failed to learn the lessons of the past. "Law-enforcement agencies consider a man, who committed mass violations of the law, to be their symbol. And this fact speaks volumes. But we will protest this action to the Moscow municipal government," Rachinsky said.
