A comparative analysis of the situation in the two countries shows that in the next few years there will not be a birch (Russian) revolution similar to those that have happened in Georgia and Ukraine. This is a key conclusion made by participants in a Civil Congress that was held in Moscow on December 12 by the parties that suffered defeat at last year's parliamentary elections.
The delegates ranged from liberals to Communists. The latter, though they won seats in the State Duma, do not have real authority there and hence joined the losers - the Union of Right-wing Forces (SPS), Grigory Yavlinsky's Yabloko, and other opposition parties who sadly described themselves at the congress as political marginals.
There are many reasons for disappointment. First, the opposition cannot unite. Talks about creating a common right-wing party began long before the election, were held energetically after the defeat and are still going on. However, the right-wing forces are not uniting but splitting.
Irina Khakamada, who has left the SPS, created one more marginal right-wing party. The other day, Yabloko called for creating a common party on the basis of Yabloko, which provoked fierce debates and will hardly yield practical results. The parties still remember their old discord and strife and their leaders still entertain personal ambitions.
Russia's right-wing forces are waiting for the appearance of new faces, but there were none at the Civil Congress. The only new thing was the gathering of the right- and left-wing opposition parties in one hall, which they left for their party quarters again.
Meanwhile, the threshold at the next Duma election will be raised by 5% to 7%, which all participants in the congress (with the exception of Communists) view as impossible. Boris Nemtsov, a former SPS leader, said his colleagues negotiated the threshold at the recent provincial elections in only two regions, while Yabloko failed everywhere.
The two other problems facing the opposition are the president and the people. The latest polls show that President Putin's popularity has not diminished. Accordingly, the experience of Ukraine's orange revolution cannot be applied in Russia. The opposition offers the following explanation for the continued love affair of the president and the people. "There are certain material circumstances, and the ruble is stronger than the dollar," Mr. Nemtsov said. "This is a truth we cannot deny. The economy is also growing, and we have a budget surplus and the Stabilization Fund... The president can index pensions and wages and raise the remuneration of servicemen... Add to this the efforts of television channels to turn our people into zombies."
I can accept the first part of his explanation - foreign experts admit that the Russian economy, though it has its problems, is moving in the right direction. But the transformation of Russians into zombies is a debatable issue. Vladimir Putin appears on television no more frequently than his predecessor Boris Yeltsin or the opposition leaders at the time when they held positions of power.
The main difficulty facing the right-wing forces is not the lack of a dais from which they can speak but the fact that they have lost their attraction as popular leaders. Their criticism of the authorities is sometimes correct, but what of it? The people know where the authorities have failed them anyway. Ordinary people do not need Mr. Yavlinsky, Mr. Nemtsov or Mrs. Khakamada to see how full (or empty) their pockets are or to judge the safety of their lives.
Russian democracy needs competitive ideas, which is what its right-wing forces cannot provide. The old oracles have said what they think (and even had their time at the helm), but the new oracles do not have any productive ideas. So, why allow them to the helm? The trouble is not that the authorities are "strangling the right-wing forces" but that the current right-wing forces have long exhausted their potential.
As for the liberal idea, Russia needs it desperately to create competition on the political field. Russia is waiting impatiently for the return of the right-wing forces but in a new format and with new ideas. When they have new ideas and charismatic leaders, they will win the dais and negotiate the election threshold - without resorting to a birch revolution.
