Is AUKUS in Trouble? Australia's Submarine Deal With US in Turmoil Over Production Cut

The US Navy's decision to reduce submarine production for 2025 has raised concerns among both advocates and opponents of the AUKUS defense agreement.

US President Joe Biden has slashed the number of nuclear-powered submarines that the Navy will buy in 2025 from two to one in his bloated budget request.

While struggling to keep up the current rate of new launches, the Navy must now speed up ship-building to compensate for the looming sale of three Virginia-class fast attack submarines, armed with torpedoes and cruise missiles, to Australia by the end of the decade.

Democrat Connecticut representative and co-chair of the congressional AUKUS caucus Joe Courtney slammed the Navy's decision, saying “it makes little or no sense,” especially given that the submarine fleet is already below planned strength at 17 boats.

“Given the new commitment the Department of Defense and Congress made last year to sell three submarines to our ally Australia, which I enthusiastically support, the ramifications of the Navy’s proposal will have a profound impact on both countries’ navies,” Courtney told reporters.

Australian politicians attacked the White House over the production cut.

"The failure is almost too big to wrap your head around,” Australian Greens Senator David Shoebridge posted on X, accusing the Biden government of budgeting for “US needs but no one else.”

US Navy chief financial officer Mike McCord told a briefing that ordering only one Virginia-class submarine next year was a “management decision.” He pointed to the current backlog of over a dozen submarines with significant delays.

BREAKING

This year is looking like the first and only anniversary of AUKUS.

With the US budget making enough for US needs but no one else, more below.👇

— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) March 12, 2024

The announcement of the trilateral security partnership on September 15, 2021, swiftly led to the US and UK gazumping Canberra's AU$90-billion contract with French shipyards for a fleet of conventionally-powered submarines. Along with the nuclear sub purchase, the AUKUS treaty included promises to share advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

However, defense experts have voiced skepticism regarding the deal's viability, including Emeritus Professor Hugh White from the Australian National University, a former defense adviser.

"I think the chance of the plan unfolding effectively is extremely low," White told an interview with ABC RN's Global Roaming.

The expert questioned the need for nuclear-powered submarines, stressing their high cost and operational complications, and warned of Australia's rising dependence on the UK and the US.

Allan Behm, the director of the international and security affairs program at the Australia Institute, voiced reservations about the deal's feasibility. He warned the Royal Australian Navy's lack of experience in operating and maintaining nuclear-powered submarines could lead to a drain on its resources.

While Australian authorities have hailed the trilateral security plan as a deterrent to China, White raised red flags about its potential to draw Australia into a confrontation between the US and China.

AUKUS has also drawn criticism from Russia, China and North Korea, warning against a renewed arms race within the region. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning condemned the agreement for raising tensions in the Asia-Pacific and condemned Washington for "pursuing its own interests and adhering to a zero-sum game mindset."

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stressed that "the Anglo-Saxon world, with the creation of bloc structures like AUKUS... is making a serious bid for confrontation for many years to come."

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen denounced the AUKUS agreement in June last year as the "starting point of a very dangerous arms race" in the Asia-Pacific. Cambodia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have repeatedly questioned whether AUKUS is complying with non-proliferation rules, stressing ASEAN's commitment to a nuclear-weapon-free region.