France's and Germany's Lack of Independence Forces Them to Continue Bankrolling Ukraine

While Western powers' lavish financial and military contributions to Kiev’s war effort have so far failed to produce any meaningful results, many leaders seem eager to keep bankrolling Ukraine until it runs out of manpower.

The EU may be looking to amend the mechanism used to provide military support to Ukraine by creating a new fund in addition to the European Peace Facility (EPF) that has so far been used by Europe to funnel arms to Kiev.

According to Bloomberg, the new fund may have an annual budget of €5 billion but EU member states are yet to come to a consensus on how this initiative is going to work out.

Commenting on this development, Gabor Stier, senior foreign policy analyst at the conservative Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet, told Sputnik that whatever shape and form this new fund is going to take, it will ultimately harm European states.

According to him, the EU leadership is essentially trying to come up with a plan to bankroll Ukraine regardless of what Hungary might think about it, with Stier referring to attempts by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to come up with a plan to provide aid to Ukraine without harming the EU budget in the process.

Orban’s proposals - that involve dividing the aid to Kiev into smaller tranches and keeping track of exactly how this money would be spent - are very much disliked by Brussels, Stier said. The EU leadership is reportedly concerned that the Hungarian prime minister might veto options he does not like (as decisions to allocate funds under the auspices of EPF require unanimous agreement).

“There will be a new fund but with what money?” Stier inquired. “The first option would be a new fund where money from the EU budget would go into. This does not solve the issue with the Hungarian veto. The second option would involve creating a fund outside the EU budget. The problem with this option is that it would take too long as each (EU) country and its respective parliament would have to vote on it separately. There will be arguments and it will all drag on. While this would go on, Ukraine would already suffer a defeat.”

Thus, Stier suggests, the new fund will likely be filled with money from the EU budget.

“It is already clear that this fund will be designed through discussions within the EU, which is clear in light of the new strikes in Germany or in France. It seems that everyone is either not too keen to trust Ukrainian politicians or have reconsidered their approach to the allocation of funds,” he mused.

Stier also noted that some European states use Orban as “cover” by making it look like he is the lone obstacle on the way to agreeing on the Ukrainian aid issue.

“There are internal frictions, this much is clear. Earlier in Budapest, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico voiced his agreement with Orban on everything related to Ukraine,” he said. “Austria is also on the same wavelength as Orban. But when it comes to voting in Brussels, no one besides Orban says that they are against (the funding of Ukraine).”

According to Stier, even France and Germany essentially use Orban to “force Ukraine, who is brazenly spending all resources of the Western powers, to slow down somewhat.”

Only Poland, the Baltic states and the Scandinavian states wholeheartedly support Ukraine, he argued, along with the “Benelux and the Netherlands,” though the latter two have some “internal problems.”

He did note, however, that even though Germany, France and Italy may not be thrilled by the prospects of continuously financing Ukraine, they simply cannot stop doing so.

“This is how their dependence on the United States manifests,” Stier explained. “Europe is going to bear the financial burden in the future, that much is obvious.”

The analyst also claimed that this year is going to be “critical” for Ukraine in terms of financing, and that “more justifications are required to amass so much money everywhere” to support Kiev.