US-Backed Candidate's Victory in Taiwan Means 'Year of the Dragon is Going to Be Tense'

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te was proclaimed the victor of the regional election on the island by the Taiwanese Central Election Commission on January 13.

Not long after his victory, Lai proclaimed during a press conference that he and his colleagues will “protect Taiwan from China's continued threats and intimidation."

On the mainland, China's Taiwan Affairs Office chief Chen Binhua declared that Beijing “will adhere to the 1992 consensus, which embodies the One China principle, and firmly oppose separatist actions aimed at achieving Taiwan's independence, as well as interference by external forces."

So far, it seems that the DPP “will continue to occupy the [so-called] Presidential Office and do the bidding of the United States,” which is “ultimately a victory for Western empire,” said Jeff Brown, author of The China Trilogy and editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland.

According to him, the US will make the most of the current situation to “frustrate and irritate Beijing, along with vassals South Korea, Japan and the Philippines,” three countries “heavily occupied by American troops.”

“Beijing will continue to publicly bluster about these ongoing insults, while doing everything possible to avoid a hot war in East Asia, which would hinder the country’s continuing economic, science/technology and infrastructure development, to improve the lives of the people,” he predicted. “Nonetheless, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly said Taiwan has two choices: peaceful reunification before 2049 or an overwhelming military response if the island declares independence.”

According to Brown, the leaders of the DPP are merely “American satraps and the US will use their subordination to abuse the Taiwanese people as geopolitical pawns.”

“What is worrisome is in spite of losing badly in Ukraine and Palestine, Uncle Sam is clearly planning on war with China at some point, using Taiwan as a proxy,” Brown mused. “Japan, South Korea and the Philippines are expanding their American military occupations with new bases and Taiwan keeps buying US weapons.”

He described the emerging situation in East Asia as “one big three-dimensional geopolitical chess game, which could easily end up in a hot war.”

“China and Russia will continue to work closely together in the Western Pacific. North Korea will keep the US, ROK [South Korea] and Japan distracted and on edge. Vietnam and the rest of ASEAN side with Beijing. Vassal Philippines will keep being used to confront China in the South China Sea, along with NATO ships and warplanes intruding into China’s waters and airspace,” Brown surmised.

“With America’s DPP still in power in Taiwan, 2024, the Year of the Dragon is going to be tense,” he added.

Meanwhile, Beijing-based China expert, author, and columnist Francesco Sisci has observed that the election outcome in Taiwan presents Beijing with a “very interesting development,” as the DPP lost the majority in the parliament despite witnessing their candidate win the regional leader election.

“There is a majority made by the two opposition parties and the two opposition parties are looking for new engagement, with Beijing,” he explained. “So we have a split majority in the island, and we have to wait for maybe sometime a few weeks or a few months to see how the mechanism of government will work out. So until something is cleared, my guess is Beijing will not take any action. It will, rather, bide its time.”

He also argued that neither Beijing nor Taipei want to escalate the situation, especially since mainland China “scored some points” with the two opposition parties that “are closer to Beijing” now controlling the majority of the island’s parliament.

Despite that, he did note that “it's easy to think that one of the parties could collaborate more” with the Taiwanese leader.

“But short of something unexpected, I would say things could carry out some kind of normalcy,” Sisci continued. “Also, because the United States, is involved in two major crises and doesn't want to be involved in Taiwan crisis, and there are the American presidential elections. So my wild guess is that until the presidential election, things should be normal.”

However, things could change after the 2024 US presidential election, he added, since “China is of paramount importance for the United States.”