‘Beginning of the End’ of Ukraine Conflict Sees Chance for Diplomacy, Negotiation

Analyst Daniel Lazare sees peace and neutrality in Ukraine’s future if the United States is willing to allow it.

A wind down of fighting in Ukraine could provide the opportunity for compromise, 'Finlandization', and maybe even a role for China, according to investigative journalist Daniel Lazare.

Lazare made the claim on the Sputnik's Political Misfits Thursday in a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on US drug and immigration policy.

Host John Kirakou noted that “Republicans have been remarkably unified in their opposition to more military aid to Ukraine, and Democrats have been unsuccessful in tying that aid to aid to Israel.”

“Are we seeing the beginning of the end of this conflict?” asked Kiriakou.

“I think so,” responded Lazare, noting that Russia has a population some three times as large as Ukraine’s and enjoys a significant advantage in access to resources. “They are just grinding the Ukraine down and without massive outside assistance its fate is really fixed.”

But Lazare blamed the United States for the outbreak of the conflict and warned America could still stand in the way of peace.

“The US pushed the Ukraine into an extreme position of rejecting any kind of compromise whatsoever even though a compromise really made sense. Because it's clear that the population in the eastern Ukraine and the Crimea just have lost faith in the Kiev government, which was taken over by extreme nationalists.”

“This seems to me to be a case of just a completely ill thought out policy that sort of just flowed from years of neocon arrogance,” claimed Lazare.

US President Barack Obama’s foreign policy circle was dominated by neoconservatives like Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland during Ukraine’s so-called Euromaidan coup in 2014. Western governments cheered on anti-government protests at that time even though polling showed most Ukrainians disagreed with the demands of protesters at Kiev’s Maidan Square.

After neo-Nazi groups forced elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to flee the country, leaked audio emerged of Nuland discussing the United States’ attempts to shape the interim government. Nuland boasted of sending $5 billion to promote so-called “democracy building programs” in Ukraine – code for activity designed to promote US interests in foreign governments. The term “color revolution” has been coined to describe US regime change efforts spurred by the funding of opposition forces, especially in Russia’s sphere of influence.

US interference helped “tear the country in two,” according to Lazare, and made “outright war more or less inevitable.”

“And now the US is facing the consequences. Or rather Zelensky is facing the consequences while the US kind of walks away,” the analyst stressed.

Lazare noted “the US will not find it easy to back off” from its support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but he proposed a future wherein peace could be brought to Ukraine if the country agrees to demilitarize.

“What Russia is looking for is 'Finlandization',” said Lazare, using the term for Finland’s foreign policy position throughout the Cold War that saw the country adopt a neutral stance towards the Soviet Union. “'Finlandization' is a dirty word. But bear in mind that Finland, in its entire history, never enjoyed greater peace, prosperity, or democracy than during the period of 'Finlandization'.”

“I actually visited Finland in 1972 during the period of 'Finlandization' and it was a glorious society,” said Lazare. “I mean prosperous, egalitarian, socialistic… That was the Russian posture for good reason. It could’ve been worse. I mean, Russia could have demanded the ‘Mexicanization’ of the Ukraine, which would mean inclined to get into poverty and crime. But Russia didn't do that. And so the deal they offered this border country was really pretty good. It would have been satisfactory [in Ukraine] to a wide range of interests. But the US blocked it.”

Kiriakou asked Lazare if there was potential for China to become involved in negotiations in Ukraine, noting the country’s growing influence and recent success in the Middle East bringing together Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“Certainly the Ukraine would be a very interesting area from China's point of view to engage in diplomacy. China wants to break out of this US-imposed embargo,” said the author. “This is an opportunity because the US is failing so badly and leaving the affected countries little choice but to reach out to other parties for assistance.”

“So I think if I was in Beijing, if I was a Chinese diplomat, I'd be saying, 'this is an area we should keep very close tabs on because there may be opportunities for us to exercise influence.’”