EU May Strip Hungary of Voting Rights in Bid to Force Ukraine Funds

European Union member states are weighing the possibility of revoking Hungary's voting rights as a strategic move to secure an agreement on the allocation of funds to Ukraine, according to sources cited by The Financial Times.

Insiders have revealed that EU officials are contemplating the application of Article 7 of the 2007 European Union Treaty that empowers the Union to suspend a member country's voting privileges in response to violations of European legislation.

While any other EU member can obstruct this process, recent political developments have left Hungary without a guaranteed protector within the EU following Poland's recent elections.

Despite the absence of recent infringements of EU legislation, European Commission actions such as unblocking approximately €10 billion in pending payments related to rule-of-law issues have not deterred discussions on the potential use of Article 7.

Paolo Raffone, a strategic analyst and director of the CIPI Foundation in Brussels, warns that the complex and slow nature of the procedure, coupled with potential backlash, makes it unlikely for other EU members to readily adopt it.

“The procedure to strip voting rights to a member state in the EU is complex, slow, and it may backfire. Therefore, I do not believe that the suggestions coming from Baltics or Poland may be easily followed by the other EU members,” he said.

The analyst pointed out the “evident dissatisfaction” among the UK and US with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's veto of the EU's €50-billion package to Ukraine, especially when US funds are constrained due to domestic political imbalances in US Congress.

“It is a totalitarian message, probably dictated by the urgency to replace the US in providing funds to Ukraine.”

Notably, Raffone highlighted concerns over recent voting procedures, such as the unanimity vote to initiate Ukraine's accession process into the EU, at which Orban's absence during the vote was a unique circumstance. Raffone emphasized that such procedural intricacies weaken the political weight of EU decisions.

“Either you abide with the majority, aligning yourself to it, or you’re a pariah excluded from the decision-making process. This kills the ‘united-in-diversity’ EU cornerstone,” he noted.

While some EU members express reservations about imposing restrictions on Hungary, an alternative strategy is reportedly being considered. Instead of punitive measures, they aim to demonstrate the full consequences of isolating Hungary within the EU, hoping to persuade Orban to reconsider his stance on Ukraine aid. If unsuccessful, the remaining 26 EU members could independently forge a deal, acknowledging that it would be a time-consuming and temporary solution.

"The procedural trick used for the vote on Ukraine is a bad precedent that may disaggregate the EU in a number of fields. The EU is not a political union. Therefore, pushing for homogeneity in the political decision-making process is very dangerous," Raffone concluded.

On December 15, Orban confirmed Hungary's reluctance to support the EU budget's financial aid to Ukraine, revealing that he had blocked an amendment during the EU summit in Brussels that proposed allocating 450 billion for the period 2024-2027.