US Inflation Saw Slight November Ease as Bankers Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts by June 2024

The latest consumer price index (CPI) report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that inflation had declined slightly from October to November, even as the prices for some commodities continued to rise.

According to the report, the aggregate price of commodities rose by 3.1% from November 2022 to November 2023, marking a slight decline in the overall inflation rate from October, which saw a 3.2% increase over the prior year.

While still among the smallest inflation in years, November was still slightly higher than in June, when prices increased just 3% from a year prior.

The BLS noted that overall, commodity prices increased by 0.1% in the one month from October 2023 to November 2023, driven upward by higher housing costs, which offset a decline in fuel prices. Energy and shelter have been among the leading drivers of inflation since the summer, when the Federal Reserve last raised interest rates. The central bank has said it expects the inflation increase to be temporary, and indeed, the rate of inflation has lessened since September.

A survey of top US bankers and financiers also published on Tuesday found that a majority expect the Federal Reserve to maintain its historically high interest rates for another six months.

The results, published by business news outlet CNBC, said a majority of respondents said they expected a rate cut by June, with 69% agreeing it would happen by July. The survey found that big rate cuts aren’t anticipated, averaging to about 25 basis points per quarter next year, or the smallest rate cut the Fed is likely to make at a given meeting.

“The Fed needs to begin laying out a road map to rate cuts that may represent tighter policy since cuts will be lagging the decline in inflation and real rates will be rising,” John Ryding, chief economic adviser to Brean Capital, told the outlet in response to the survey.

Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned economic prognosticators not to base their expectations for the US economy on prior experiences, essentially saying that after the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, the US is in uncharted waters.

“Regular forecasting also demands a systematic approach and a high degree of intellectual rigor,” Powell said, urging that this “has to be combined with flexibility and agility … But our economy is flexible and dynamic, and subject at times to unpredictable shocks, such as a global financial crisis or a pandemic … At those times, forecasters have to think outside the models.”

The Fed has maintained its stated goal of bringing inflation down to 2%, meaning prices would increase by an average of 2% per year. However, its primary tool for slowing inflation - increasing interest rates - is well-known for its tendency to trigger economic recessions.

That said, the CNBC survey found that 47% of respondents anticipate a “soft landing” in the struggle against inflation, a number that had increased by 5 points since October. Correspondingly, the amount who expected a recession in 2024 had declined by 8 points since October, to 41%.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, told reporters last month the Fed should persist in its efforts to quash inflation, albeit with a careful and cautious approach. The banker previously anticipated that interest rates would need to rise much higher than they are presently in order to stop the inflationary trend.