Will Lebanon Get Embroiled in Hostilities With Israel?

Israel and Hezbollah have been actively fighting on the Lebanese-Israeli border for several weeks now. There are casualties even among Lebanese civilians.

However, Lebanese politicians and experts believe that Lebanon is not ready to carry on prolonged hostilities with Israel.

'Beirut Isn't Ready at All to Handle Such a Development'

Despite regular shelling by the Israeli army of populated areas in southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel, Lebanon is not ready to be drawn into a full-scale war with its neighbor, Dr. Ohannes Geukjian, Associate Professor of Political Studies & Conflict Resolution at the American University of Beirut, told Sputnik.

"No, the area of southern Lebanon is not prepared for continued involvement in hostilities with Israel and Beirut is not ready at all to handle such a development. The position of several Lebanese parties and the current caretaker government are not in favor of war with Israel. Given the financial and economic collapse of Lebanon, the country cannot cope with the repercussions of another war. Lebanon is bankrupt and the caretaker government is bearly able to provide the needs of the Lebanese [population]. We are not in 2006, when the Gulf countries funded the rebuilding of the destroyed areas and the infrastructure of the country," he explained.

Nevertheless, the Lebanese people "will be all together in one hand against any aggression or any hostilities from the Israeli side", but definitely would not start the war, even due to "living under hard social and financial circumstances", highlighted Amal Abou Zeid, former Member of the Lebanese Parliament and ex-advisor to Lebanese President Gen. Michel Aoun for Lebanese-Russian Affairs.

"You know that Beirut or Lebanon itself is living under hard circumstances, socially, financially. It doesn't mean that we are able to sustain if there would be a kind of an attack on Lebanon. But on the other side, as I told you just before, Lebanese will be all together in one hand against any aggression or any hostilities from the Israeli side. We will not start the war. But if we are attacked, the whole Lebanese, even under such a kind of a hard situation, will be behind Lebanon and behind the Lebanese army in the resistance and the way to defend the country," he added.

Can Lebanese Politicians Stop the Escalation?

Given the recent events, several Lebanese parties penned a petition last month opposing Lebanon potentially getting entangled in a regional conflict. Still, there have already been casualties from Israeli shelling on Lebanon's southern border. Subsequently, the Lebanese public created an online petition calling on their government not to get dragged into the war, which has already garnered 9,333 signatures. Nevertheless, Israeli shelling on Lebanon's southern border has been racking up casualties. The ongoing political and economic crisis in Lebanon raises the question of whether Lebanese politicians have the ability to prevent the war from further escalating.

According to Ohannes Geukijan, the Lebanese parties "and a big number of politicians cannot stop escalation, in case it happens" due to government instability and weak political influence.

"Because the decision of war is Hezbollah's and Iran's prerogative. Yet, Hezbollah too does not favor escalation because the country is not ready to handle the implicatioins of war. There is already a limited war along the border with Israel in order to lessen Israel's military pressure in Gaza. It is important to stress that the US has sent clear messages to all parties, including Israel, not to escalate because that would lead to regional war," he pointed out.

The Lebanese Want Peace

Lebanon's social and political landscape is intricately shaped by a complex ethno-confessional system. This means that various religious groups in the country not only maintain distinct beliefs but also differ in their political preferences. Consequently, this poses additional challenges for Lebanese society. However, ex-Lebanese lawmaker, Amal Abou Zeid, stresses that regardless of religious or political affiliations, Lebanon's entire citizenry is unified in their support for the Palestinian people and their aspirations for an independent Palestinian State.

"Whether I'm a Christian or a Muslim, it's all the same. We all support the Palestinians, and we consider what's happening a kind of genocide against the Palestinian people. You know, we have almost 400,000 Palestinians, refugees in Lebanon. And we are supporting the right of return for the Palestinians to go back to their homeland, to their country, where they were living before 1948. So I believe the best thing to do is to have kind of political, diplomatic efforts from all countries concerned - Russia, America, the European Union, to exert pressure on all sides in order to achieve this possibility, that we're achieving or having a real independent Palestinian state that would keep all this region living in peace for many, many years to come," Lebanese politician concluded.