Global Warming to Mark Hottest-Ever Temps, Exceed 1.5-Degree Threshold in Next 5 Years

The 2015 Paris Agreement set long-term targets for all countries to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of limiting global temperature below 2°C this century, while making efforts to ensure temperatures do not exceed 1.5°C; however, new findings suggest this ceiling may be breached soon.

A new report filed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has revealed that global surface temperatures are more than likely to mark severely concerning records over the next five years.

According to scientists, the average annual near-surface temperature of the Earth from 2023 to 2027 will surpass 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels - the threshold marked by the Paris Agreement - for at least one year. There is a 66% probability that this will happen, analysts said.

At the same time, officials indicated there was a 98% chance that at least one year between 2023 and 2027, or the five-year period as a whole would record the hottest-ever temperatures since records were first started.

In addition, the amount of rain will increase in Northern Europe, Siberia, Alaska and the Sahel region of Africa, and decrease over the Amazon and in parts of Australia during this period.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas has stated the predicted temperature spike "will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared."

The probability of a temporary temperature exceedance of 1.5°C has steadily increased since 2015, when it was closer to zero. Between 2017 and 2021, the exceedance probability registered at 10%.

According to the WMO, there is a 32% chance that the five-year average will exceed 1.5 degrees.

Researchers attributed the record high temperatures to the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which influence global warming, as well as the natural phenomenon of El Niño.

The global average temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling effect of the conditions of another phenomenon, La Niña, has temporarily curbed the long-term warming trend for most of the past three years. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and El Niño is predicted to unfold in the coming months.

In addition to rising global temperatures, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are causing even more ocean heating and acidification, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and more extreme weather patterns.