China’s Support For Pakistan Will Come With Caveats, Experts Believe

Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif has paid a visit to China, becoming the second foreign leader to go to Beijing following the re-election of Xi Jinping as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. The visit came at a time of severe financial crisis in Pakistan, exacerbated by political uncertainty amid the rising popularity of ex-PM Imran Khan.

China aims to curtail its spending spree concerning Belt and Road Initiative funding and follow a more conservative policy on additional moneylending, M.S. Pratibha, an expert on China’s foreign relations, observed.

“We should expect China to support Pakistan financially, but with various caveats to make sure that it is not financially risky,” Pratibha, an associate fellow at the East Asia Centre at New Delhi-based MP-IDSA, told Sputnik.

Issuing a 47-point joint statement following bilateral talks held between Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, China reiterated that relations with Pakistan will always be “given the highest priority in its foreign policy.”

The Sharif government called for fast-tracking some $18 billion worth of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, including the long-delayed M-1 and Karachi circular railway. However, the joint statement has no financial commitment to these.

China has also not announced a financial commitment to roll over $6.3 billion in debt or a fresh loan to cash-strapped Pakistan.

“Though China has shown support for the financial stabilization of Pakistan, debt relief or additional funding is not only dependent on their bilateral relationship,” Pratibha underlined.

China has serious concerns about the safety and security of its personnel engaged in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as over a dozen Chinese nationals have been killed in the South Asian country in several attacks over the past two years.

Originally valued at $47 billion, the cumulative value of all CPEC projects has amplified considerably, with an estimated worth of $62 billion in 2020.

CPEC: Challenging India’s Ambitions

Despite concerns related to the CPEC project, the two strategic partners have hinted at expanding it to land-locked Afghanistan, which is seeking foreign assistance to rebuild the war-torn nation following the US withdrawal in 2021.

“The joint statement hinting at a possible extension of CPEC to Afghanistan should be considered as a message to India to accelerate its own connectivity projects to the Central Asian region and beyond. It will bring China and India very close to a strategic competition of connectivity to Central Asia,” Monica Verma, a Delhi-based researcher focusing on the political economy of South Asia and regional integration, told Sputnik.

In the absence of a direct transit route to Afghanistan, India has developed alternative connectivity through Iran’s Chabahar Port and is now seeking to make it a part of the International North-South Transport Corridor. India is pushing for this at the SCO as well.

New Delhi has consistently conveyed “protests and concerns” to China and Pakistan, as CPEC includes projects in the “sovereign territory” of India.

On Thursday, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said that attempts to involve “third parties” in CPEC are “inherently illegal, illegitimate and unacceptable and will be treated as such” by India.

Verma reckoned that CPEC's extension to Afghanistan will not be limited to Afghanistan alone, but that it is a way to link Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asian countries through a network of connectivity.

“Case in point is the Trans-Afghan Rail between Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan,” Verma underlined.

The Indian government increased diplomatic activities this year to use Chabahar as a port to connect to Afghanistan and Central Asia for trade. Iran is ready to conclude a long-term contract with India by December to use Chabahar Port as a crucial transit hub for the North-South Transport Corridor.

Political Instability in Pakistan

There is speculation among a certain section of the diplomatic community that Sharif would not be able to receive actionable assistance from friendly countries due to political instability.

Imran Khan, who was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in parliament in April, has been riding on unprecedented popularity, snatching power in Punjab from the governing Pakistan Muslim League. Last month, the PTI chairman also defeated the governing coalition in 22 out of 25 parliamentary constituencies in by-elections.

In a rare move, the PTI chairman blamed Pakistan's Army and Election Commission for not allowing the “democratic process to progress by blackmailing and threatening people with videos and audio."

“In the recent fallout between the military and Imran [Khan], Imran may have popularity and eyeballs, but the real shots are called by the deep state. Recently even Bilawal Bhutto, the foreign minister, had to apologize after overtly stating this fact publicly,” Monica Verma reckoned.