Why Would the Assassination of Hamas' Chief 'Open the Doors of Hell' for Israel?

Calls to eliminate the leader of Hamas were renewed amid the celebration of the 74th anniversary of Israel's independence, which was marred by a deadly terrorist attack in the city of Elad. The attack became the most recent in a series of deadly incidents across the nation.

Yehiya Sinwar, the chief of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, knows he cannot sleep quietly. Ever since he assumed office in 2017, he has been a potential target for Israel's security agencies. Now, however, the calls to eliminate him are being heard much louder.

On 5 May, Israel was celebrating the 74th anniversary of its independence. Two Palestinian terrorists, armed with knives and axes, killed three Israelis in the city of Elad, and the country's security apparatus believed they were inspired by Sinwar's incitement.

Following the attack that pushed the overall number of victims in this recent wave of violence to 19, many in Israel called for Sinwar’s assassination. Various former commanders gave extensive interviews in support of this policy. A number of conservative politicians signed a petition urging the elimination of the Hamas chief. Celebrities have also chimed in, speaking in favour of this option.

Not an Easy Task

The assassination of Sinwar "won't be an easy task", says Mohammed Hijazi, a political expert from Gaza. Just like many other top-ranking officials of the Islamic group, the 59-year-old is highly guarded. His whereabouts are constantly changing and he rarely sleeps in one place more than once.

For Israel, however, which operates an extensive network of spies including in the coastal enclave ruled by Hamas, finding the whereabouts of a "wanted man" has never presented a difficulty. It has done so on a multiple occasions in the past.

Head of the political wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip Yehiya Sinwar speaks during a meeting in Gaza City on 30 April, 2022.

© AFP 2023 / Mahmud HAMS

In 2004, amid the Second Palestinian Intifada, then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the assassination of Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual leader of Hamas. A month after his assassination, the Jewish state also killed his successor, Abdel Aziz Al Rantisi.

A similar fate has awaited many other leaders of Hamas and its allies. The most recent assassination occurred in 2019 with the elimination of Baha Abu Al Ata, a top commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. And this is the reason why some believe that if Israel decides to do so, Sinwar might be added to the long list of leaders eliminated by the IDF.

Doors of Hell to Break Lose

Yet, Hijazi is certain, that had Israel chosen to do so, it would have run into a major problem.

"Israel knows that killing Sinwar means a large-scale war that won't be limited with time. Such an attack will not be unanswered. And Israel should know that in the event of his assassination, the doors of hell will be break lose".

Last May, Israel got a taste of Hamas' capabilities. During the 12-day conflict, the Islamic group launched more than 4,300 rockets into Israel, killing 14 Israelis. According to the assessments made by the country's security apparatus, militants of the Strip still possess a total of 18,000 rockets, and the fear is that they won't hesitate to use them.

Rockets are launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, in Gaza City, Thursday, May 20, 2021.

© AP Photo / Hatem Moussa

Apart from rockets, some of which can reach more distant areas of Israel such as Haifa, Hamas also has a sophisticated system of tunnels. Although Israel claimed it managed to destroy a big chunk of them during the most recent operation, the Islamic group says many attack tunnels are still functioning, and this means they may be used for the purpose of kidnapping or killing Israeli soldiers and civilians.

"I would recommend that Israel think twice before embarking on such a dangerous endeavour," said Hijazi. "Hamas' punishment might not be limited to the attacks on Israel only. Jews around the world might be a target too, wherever they are. Hamas has enough proxies," he added.

It seems that officials in Israel are listening in. Despite the incitement, the IDF advised the political apparatus not to give an order that would pave the way for the assassination of Sinwar.

The IDF also believes that his elimination should come "when the time is ripe" although there was no indication as to when such circumstances will arise. But Hijazi says that even if Israel ends up going down that path, they won't stop Hamas as a resistance movement.

"Hamas has a policy in replacing its leaders. The elimination of one of them, won't be the end of the group."