As Turkey's Erdogan Considers Trip to Saudi Arabia, Pundit Says Rapprochement is Possible

Relations between the two countries deteriorated in 2011 when the outbreak of the Arab Spring in Egypt put them on opposing sides. They cooled even further in 2017 after several Gulf states boycotted Qatar, a Turkish ally. And in 2018 they received another knock when Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi was murdered.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might visit Saudi Arabia by the end of the month, reports suggest, only two months after he makes an official tour of the United Arab Emirates, Riyadh's main regional ally.

Although no official date has been announced, it is widely believed that the visit, if it does take place, will happen during the month of Ramadan so that Erdogan may offer his prayers in Mecca, one of the two most important shrines for Muslims.

Relations Begin to Cool

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey started to slide in 2011 when the Arab Spring protests erupted in Egypt.

Back then, Riyadh threw its support behind Hosni Mubarak (at the time, Egypt's president) whereas Ankara decided to back the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), deemed a terrorist organisation by Cairo and a number of its regional allies.

Six years later, in 2017, the two states came head to head in another crisis - Qatar. Saudi Arabia and its allies boycotted the gas-rich nation because of its support for the MB but Erdogan extended Doha a hand of support, something that angered officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

"There are many other disagreements between the two nations," said Dr Hamdan Al-Shuhri, a Riyadh-based political analyst. "They don't see eye to eye when it comes to Syria. Neither do they have similar positions on Libya. And, one mustn't forget, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is a serious obstacle too," he added.

The Saudi journalist Khashoggi was murdered in October 2018 in Saudi's consulate in Istanbul, which he'd entered to attend to paperwork. Western media have accused the highest ranks of the Saudi government, right up to Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, of being connected with the murder,- allegations that have been vehemently refuted by the Saudis.

Erdogan has also pointed the finger of blame at the Saudi establishment. A month after the journalist's murder, he published an article in the Washington Post, directly accusing the Saudi government of the murder. Although no names were mentioned, western media has speculated that Mohammed Bin Salman's involvement had been implied.

"That murder was used by many states, not just Turkey, as a tool to lash out against Saudi Arabia. But what did they get out of this? Really nothing. Perhaps maybe more problems," said al-Shuhri.

Economic Implications

The worsening diplomatic ties between the states has affected their trade relations. In 2020 it was reported that Riyadh unofficially boycotted Turkish products, and Saudi companies were encouraged to bypass Turkish goods.

As a result of that, Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia fell in 2020 by more than 16 percent. Riyadh's investment in the Turkish economy has also fallen, and so did the amount of Saudi tourists visiting Turkey.

Now, as Turkey undergoes an economic crisis, with the local currency losing much of its value, Erdogan seems to be willing to turn a new page in his country's relations with the Saudis which al-Shuhri believes is the right answer.

"Saudi Arabia is interested in improving relations with Turkey, as we seek to maintain friendly ties with all states," al-Shuhri said.

"Improved ties between the two countries will lead to more investment in the Turkish economy. They will increase trade and tourism. But that rapprochement will largely depend on the Turkish side, and if Erdogan decides to continue with his offensive policies, he will end up hurting his own people," he added.