Australian PM Scott Morrison Tipped to Lose Federal Election in May, Suggests Top Poll

Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Sunday advised the Governor General to dissolve the House of Representatives (lower house) and call the federal election for 21 May. In the election, Australians will vote for members of the 151-seat lower house as well as half the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate.

The ruling coalition headed by Australia's incumbent prime minister, Scott Morrison,. is expected to be defeated by the federal opposition Labor Party in the vote on 21 May, a leading poll predicted on Monday.

According to Newspoll, Labor is ahead of Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition by six percentage points on the two-party preferred vote in the first poll of the election campaign.

The findings of Newspoll were published in The Australian earlier in the day. Although 53 percent of those polled said they would vote for Labor on a two-party system, 47 percent said they preferred the Liberal Party.

The poll surveyed 1,506 voters between 6 and 9 April, according to The Australian.

If the trends hold, Labor would win an additional 10 seats in the forthcoming election, which would be enough for Opposition leader Anthony Albanese to stake his claim to form a government.

The Liberal coalition currently enjoys a wafer-thin one seat majority in the Parliament.

However, a downside for Labor was that its primary vote in the latest poll has dropped by a percentage point from 38 to 37 percent since last week. The primary vote for the Liberal-National Coalition, meanwhile, remained the same at 36 percent.

Australia follows a "preferential" voting system to choose members of the lower house. According to the Australian Election Commission (AEC), each voter is required to choose a number of candidates in order of preference.

During the count, votes are allocated to candidates according to the preferences marked by voters, to avoid the confusion which exists when no candidate reaches a majority of just above 50 percent.

The candidate who is able to use preferences to garner 50 percent of the overall votes is declared the winner.

However, the Newspoll also found out that Morrison was the preferred prime ministerial candidate for Australians than Opposition leader Albanese. Around 44 percent of those polled picked Morrison, and 39 percent believed Albanese would make a better PM than Morrison.

The federal election is taking place as Australia enters into its post-COVID recovery phase, with the vote being seen as a referendum on the government’s handling of the pandemic.

Morrison has made much of his government’s handling of the pandemic, as he claimed at a press briefing on Sunday after announcing the election that Australia had been able to “avoid the nightmare scenarios”.

“Unemployment was predicted to reach 15 percent, but now it is just 4 percent and falling - the lowest level in some 48 years. Our economic recovery measures saved some 700,000 jobs,” Morrison remarked.

"And our health response working together, has saved, compared with other countries, tens of thousands of lives. On almost any measure, on fatality rates from COVID, vaccine rates, economic growth, jobs growth or debt levels, Australia's recovery is leading the world,” he added.