As Syria Welcomed Back Into Arab Fold, Local Analyst Says It'll Help Nation Financially

The damage from the Syrian civil war that erupted in 2011 is estimated to be around $1.2 trillion. The crisis has hurt the country's economy and trade, but a recent rapprochement with a number of Arab states is expected change that equation.

Syria, a country that has been at war since 2011, is likely to be represented at the next Arab League summit, expected to take place in Algeria in March.

This follows attempts by Algeria and Egypt to bring Syria back into the Arab fold, and after rapprochement efforts made by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and, more recently, the United Arab Emirates, whose Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited the war-torn country at the beginning of this month.

A pro-Syrian regime protester flashes V-victory sign

© AP Photo / Bassem Tellawi

Relations between Syria and a number of Arab soured after the eruption of the Arab Spring in 2011, with Damascus cracking down on protesters. Now, it seems a new chapter in these ties is being written.

New Geopolitical Map

Shadi Ahmed, a Damascus-based political analyst, says the recent mending of fences is connected to several factors.

"The first one is the failure of the plan to destroy Syria. Many countries have participated in that project. But when they realised that their idea was doomed, they decided to change their stance".

The second reason is the new geopolitical map of the region, and the desire to weaken Turkey.

"There are many spoken and unspoken disputes between the Gulf states and Turkey, primarily around the issue of Ankara's support for the Muslim Brotherhood movement [deemed a terrorist organisation by several regional players - ed.]. And the former believes the resumption of relations with Syria could weaken Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan", Ahmed stated.

Yet, the resumption of ties is aimed at weakening yet another player - Iran.

Since 2011, when mass protests against the government of President Bashar Assad erupted, Iran has been on the side of the authorities in Damascus, providing it with financial support, military training, and equipment.

Reports have also indicated that Tehran has deployed thousands of militants from the Iran-aligned Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and they have been fighting on the side of Assad.

FILE - In this July 29, 2017 file photo,Hezbollah fighters stand near a four-wheel motorcycle positioned at the site where clashes erupted between Hezbollah and al-Qaida-linked fighters in Wadi al-Kheil or al-Kheil Valley in the Lebanon-Syria border

© AP Photo / Bilal Hussein

The Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been staunch opponents of Iran for years, and they have been eyeing the rapid entrenchment of the Islamic Republic in Syria with concern.

Now, they see an opportunity to change the path Damascus has been on and tilt the scales in their favour. But Ahmed says the Gulf will not be able to break the bond between Iran and Syria.

Damascus, however, also needs the support of the Gulf and other Arab nations. Ten years of war have shattered the nation, with reports suggesting the damage from the hostilities is now in the area of $1.2 trillion.

Trade between Syria and a number of Arab states has decreased significantly, while money transfers have been banned.

"The economic collaboration between Syria and the Arab countries constituted more than 53 percent of Syrian trade with the world. When it stopped, it led to a difficult economic situation, so the resumption of those connections will eventually cause economic improvement", explained Ahmed.

Mending Ties

The UAE has already vowed to invest money in Syria and strengthen its cooperation with Damascus. The Syrian government has also improved ties with Oman, Kuwait, and Jordan, whereas relations with Iraq and Egypt have remained relatively strong dispute hiccups.

"We are still to improve ties with Saudi Arabia, whose leadership has indicated they were willing to do so. The only country that stands against us is Qatar, partially because of their support for the Muslim Brotherhood and partially because of Doha's ties with Turkey. But I believe that when other Gulf nations get closer to Syria, they won't have any other choice but to warm up towards Damascus".

Representatives of the Arab League attend an emergency meeting to discuss the conflict in Libya, at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, Jan. 5, 2015.

© AP Photo / Amr Nabil

"Once all those relations are mended, Syria will be able to focus on more important issues that have been bothering the public, such as the reconstruction of the country and the retrieval of the Golan Heights from Israel".