MOSCOW, April 6 (RIA Novosti) Russia unlikely to accept Obama's formula for a nuclear-free world / Russia succeeded in remaining part of the "larger world" / Russians consider institutions of civil society ineffective / Russian gas monopoly finds allies in Europe
Vremya Novostei, Gazeta
Russia unlikely to accept Obama's formula for a nuclear-free world
U.S. President Barack Obama called for "a world without nuclear weapons" in Prague on Sunday, and said he expected Russia to support this undertaking.
Analysts, who expected him to make such statements, say Russia will not agree to major nuclear cuts unless the United States reviews its ballistic missile defense program.
The U.S.-Soviet strategic arms reduction treaty, START-1, signed in 1991, will expire on December 5, 2009.
"It was a good treaty that stipulated verification of the number of warheads on each delivery vehicle," said Gen. Pavel Zolotarev, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies.
In his words, without a new treaty Russia and the U.S. will "face the risk of losing effective forms of mutual control in the nuclear sphere" and mutual obligations to continue nuclear arms reductions.
"A new treaty will be in the interests of both countries," Zolotarev said, adding that excessive reductions would not benefit Russia. "Further reductions will be impossible unless they take into account the multi-echelon U.S. ballistic missile defense system," he said.
The analyst explained that Moscow would cut its nuclear warheads to below 1,500 only if the U.S. agreed to limit its anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system.
The United States, which "has considerable potential in its general purpose forces and is also developing its ABM system, is prepared to cut its nuclear weapons to zero," Zolotarev said.
"Obama's proposal of a nuclear-free world is not a propaganda move. The Americans have outlined a long-term policy that will benefit them.
However, one cannot liquidate nuclear weapons without changing one's policy from positions of strength while at the same time developing an ABM system," the general said.
Obama said in Prague that he would continue to pursue a missile defense system in Europe "that is cost-effective and proven" as long as the Iranian nuclear threat existed.
Viktor Yesin, former chief of staff of Russia's Strategic Missile Force, said: "The Americans will not stop the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe." The only question is "whether Obama will limit it to 10 anti-missiles in Poland and one missile tracking radar in the Czech Republic or not."
Vedomosti
Russia succeeded in remaining part of the "larger world"
The most important outcome of last week's G-20 meeting in London for Russia is as follows: Russia has remained part of the "larger world" and is determined to stay there, said Professor Konstantin Sonin from the Moscow-based New Economic School (CEFIR).
It isn't easy to advance any significant initiative at a global forum, and the Russian president predictably failed to do so. The talk of converting to other reserve currencies [than the dollar] was good for domestic politics, but isn't of any particular value on the global stage. Why can't Russia just use a different currency basket for its international reserves? For the same reason why individuals don't - there are no other stable and reliable currencies available. And there are no signs that one might emerge, Sonin added.
Incidentally, similar talk in the Chinese government sounded even more pathetic. After a decade of accumulating dollar-denominated assets (keeping exports competitive required a weak Yuan), it turned out that the very size of those assets, nearly $2 trillion, gives China a royal headache.
To sell them would mean more expensive exports and devaluation of China's assets, the analyst went on. This impossible scenario could probably benefit the United States - through a weakened dollar and inflation pressure, even though China's massive sale of U.S. Treasuries would have complicated placement of new bonds.
Luckily, the current model of China's economy leaves it no chance of developing outside the global market.
For Russia, to remain an integral part of the global economy is not even a foreign-policy goal. It is a domestic priority, even though President Dmitry Medvedev's commitment to free trade and free market is little more than words, the analyst said.
In any case, advocates of free trade and free markets are in for hard times now, and President Medvedev's effort won't be lost, Sonin concluded.
RBC Daily
Russians consider institutions of civil society ineffective
Civil society has not developed in Russia, according to the annual report prepared by the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics and MarketAP consultants for Russia's Public Chamber.
Only 7.7% of Russians said they were involved in nongovernmental and nonprofit organizations. NGO leaders do not think highly of their ability to influence the openness and transparency of the authorities.
The previous such survey, conducted in 2007, showed that the so-called third sector (institutions of civil society) had not developed in Russia, and that Russians did not feel the influence of any NGOs on their life, let alone on the authorities.
Judging by the latest report, the situation has not changed. Only 25% of the polled NGO leaders said they influenced the authorities' decisions on individual problems, with the same proportion saying they molded public opinion. As many as 19% of the respondents said they influenced the activities of people and organizations, but only 8% said their actions "ensure the authorities' openness and transparency."
These assessments are twice as optimistic as the opinion of ordinary Russians.
Physicist Yevgeny Velikhov, secretary of the Public Chamber and chairman of the working group that prepared the report, said Russian society was atomized and proposed formalizing the status of the Public Chamber.
"In France, the status of a similar public agency is sealed in the Constitution," he said. "Public hearings are held before the adoption of decisions of state importance, and mutual understanding is usually reached."
Robert Shlegel, a member of the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament, said Russians' civil inactivity was rooted in history. During the Soviet era, the state strictly regulated the people's lives, and Russians also learned to mistrust everything during the 1990s.
"Everyone was a wolf to everyone else, with mistrust enhanced by all kinds of financial pyramids and money-laundering funds," Shlegel said.
Georgy Bovt, a co-chairman of the Right Cause party, said: "Civil society cannot exist in an impoverished society."
Kommersant
Russian gas monopoly finds allies in Europe
As a counter to the Brussels declaration of Ukraine and the European Union, Gazprom is forming its own European alliance: on April 3, it reported that it had enlisted support of Germany's E.On and Italy's Eni, its main European partners and consumers.
E.On and Eni are not just major gas consumers; they are also Gazprom's partners in its key energy and political projects - the South Stream and Nord Stream pipeline projects (France's GdF wants to join the latter).
However, while Russia is directly dependent on Kiev in gas supplies to the EU, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recommended that Gazprom avoid bringing the situation to another gas war. The company underlines that it has some instruments of pressure. According to Alexei Miller, the company's CEO, Ukraine's most pressing task now is a search for sources of financing to pay for consumed Russian gas.
Naftogaz admits that sizeable funds (37 billion grivnas, or about $4.8 billion) are needed to put gas into Ukraine's underground gas depots. It was expected that on April 8 Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko would report the timely payment for gas consumed in March and Vladimir Putin would propose signing a $5 billion loan for the purchase of Russian gas for Ukraine's underground gas depots.
However, the Brussels declaration shuffled the deck. On March 24, President Dmitry Medvedev said he postponed intergovernmental consultations with Kiev until the declaration issue is clarified.
Gas in Ukrainian underground gas depots is important to ensure gas transit to the EU in winter, as the capacity of all Gazprom's pipelines at Russia's western borders is lower than the total volume of gas going to Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and Europe, Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, explained.
Tymoshenko failed to attract loans in Europe and Japan to pay for Russian gas supplies. Therefore, the Ukrainian government will now have to turn towards Russia, said Maxim Shein, an analyst at BrokerCreditService. "It is easier to get a loan in Moscow for the purchase of Russian gas," he said. "However, since Kiev has discredited itself by signing the Brussels declaration, Moscow may demand additional concessions from Ukraine."
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