MOSCOW. (Ella Taranova and Dmitry Yevlashkov, for RIA Novosti). On March 24, Kyrgyzstan marks the fourth anniversary of the 2005 Tulip Revolution, which overthrew the government of President Askar Akayev.
However, the revolution did not turn this Central Asian republic into a blooming garden. The same is true of Georgia and Ukraine, which experienced similar revolutions in November 2003 and December 2004, respectively.
It may be a coincidence, but on that same day the world also marks the tenth anniversary of the NATO bombing of Belgrade, the capital of Yugoslavia. Although this initial U.S. project for Europe has succeeded, the other three are a fiasco.
Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said the West had helped the Orange Coalition to gain power in Ukraine and forgot all about the country after accomplishing its main objective and persuading Kiev to turn away from Russia and the CIS. President Kuchma said current Ukrainian politicians were unable to keep their own promises.
Over the past years, Ukraine, which has a population of 50 million, has failed to reach national accord and is tottering on the verge of bankruptcy. Right now, President Viktor Yushchenko is supported by just 3% of the population.
Georgia also faces a permanent crisis. A post-revolution modernization program was substituted by an ambitious plan for reintegrating the self-proclaimed Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. This led to the August 2008 war, when Russia fought Georgia over South Ossetia.
Judging by the Georgian opposition's bellicose mood, President Mikheil Saakashvili will be confronted with major problems in the next few months. Mass protests are scheduled for early April.
In 2001, President Askar Akayev allowed the United States to open an air base at Manas international airport near Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. However, a hostile information campaign was unleashed against President Akayev after he banned the deployment of electronic surveillance systems in the country, culminating in the Tulip Revolution.
Famous Kyrgyz narcology expert Zhenishbek Nazaraliyev, one of the revolution's leaders, said four years later that it had been a coup d'etat. "All negative economic consequences, poverty and a dire socio-political situation have been caused by the elementary ignorance of the people who are now in power," Nazaraliyev stressed.
Tulip Revolution leader and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev fears that history may repeat itself. After deciding to expel Americans from the Manas base, President Bakiyev may fall out of favor with Washington and suffer the same fate as Akayev.
Consequently, President Bakiyev has decided to hold early presidential elections on July 23, 2009, a year ahead of schedule. Members of the Kyrgyz leader's inner circle fear that he may not survive another winter. Bishkek hopes to use a $2 billion Russian loan for coping with the financial crisis. Russian allocations would also be expected to win the support of Kyrgyz voters.
This March, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Moscow and agreed to "reset" Russian-US relations at a symbolic ceremony. Neither the administration of Barack Obama, nor the European Union prioritizes relations with the CIS today. Does this mean that the era of color revolutions has ended?
Alexei Vlasov, general director of Moscow State University's Centre for Post-Soviet Studies, said there would be no more color revolutions in the CIS, and that any hypothetical revolution would amount to a social explosion.
Any regional revolution would be primarily caused by the incompetence of the majority of CIS ruling elites, who failed to ensure adequate economic development levels in times of prosperity and to create the required potential for weathering the present-day crisis.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
