MOSCOW, February 25 (RIA Novosti)
EU pressures Belarus on South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence/ Post-Soviet states find it increasingly difficult to play on contradictions between world powers/ No fuel loaded in Bushehr nuclear plant today/ Crisis marks end to oligarchic capitalism in Russia
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kommersant
EU pressures Belarus on South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence
On Tuesday, the European Union cautioned it would not involve Belarus in the Eastern Partnership program if Minsk recognized the independence of the former Georgian republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Belarusian analysts say President Alexander Lukashenko will try and strike a balance between the East and the West for as long as possible.
The first Eastern Partnership summit is scheduled for March 7. The EU plans to allocate 350 million euros in additional financial aid for six former Soviet republics, namely, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, until 2013.
Tough EU statements concerning Minsk's possible recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia's independence could become a new major irritant in relations between Moscow and Brussels.
"We are talking about open political pressure on Belarus, a sovereign state. And it is up to Minsk to decide how to react to such pressure," Russia's EU envoy Vladimir Chizhov said.
Minsk, which faces a difficult dilemma, is still refusing to openly argue with Brussels.
On Tuesday, President Lukashenko said the EU had not given Belarus any additional conditions.
Lukashenko made the comments following last week's visit to Minsk by Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief.
Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich said Minsk's policy of striking a balance between the East and the West was "optimal and so far successful," and that President Lukashenko would implement this policy as long as possible.
"This policy still brings results," Karbalevich said.
And it has been confirmed by the fact that Belarus has simultaneously received loans from Russia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he stressed.
Karbalevich declined to say how long this policy would be conducted, but said both the EU and Russia wanted to keep Belarus inside their respective geopolitical spheres of influence.
Kommersant
Post-Soviet states find it increasingly difficult to play on contradictions between world powers
Tajikistan's policy toward Russia, which has lately become rather uncontrolled, is based on the "post-colonial" approach typical of many post-Soviet states, writes Alexander Lukin, director of the Center for East Asian and Shanghai Security Organization Studies at Moscow State University for International Relations.
Its theoretical basis is this: we have long been oppressed, we are poor and everyone owes us. Their foreign policy involves attempts to get as many privileges as possible from key global players (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and China) by playing on the inconsistencies between them.
Until recently Moscow paid little attention to such games. But the war in Georgia and the closure of a U.S. base in Manas have put a new focus on things. It has been shown that placing one's hopes in the U.S. fails to meet expectations: Washington is unable to guarantee the elites in post-Soviet states territorial integrity and political stability. On the other hand, the decision by Kyrgyzstan, which has been given significant Russian aid, has shown to former republics that friendly relations with Moscow can bring real dividends.
Two factors are added to Tajikistan's traditional desire to play on the contradictions between major players: a conflict with neighbors, and a difficult domestic situation caused by the global crisis and ineffective management. In such a context, to look for external reasons to explain the pitiable state of their economy and low living standards of the population is only natural.
In this situation, it is important that Moscow avoids being cast as an external enemy. It is not fitting for Russia as the successor to the Soviet Union to align with any one side in conflicts on the post-Soviet space. On the contrary, it should play the role of an honest and reliable mediator that cannot become involved in a conflict with a neighbor even when offered concessions, but that can be relied on to help find a just solution in a dispute.
Feeling resentment and demonstrably going in the other direction, as demonstrated by Georgia, have no future, because the interests of Russia, the U.S. and China in Central Asia largely coincide - support for non-extremist regimes, fighting terrorism, and drug control. A more flexible approach on the part of the present U.S. administration could help achieve agreements on these issues, while playing on contradictions will become more difficult.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
No fuel loaded in Bushehr nuclear plant today
Officials in Tehran are looking forward to meeting Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia's state-owned Rosatom corporation, and have already announced the "pre-commissioning ceremony" or a test run of the Russian-built Bushehr plant.
Russian nuclear officials prefer to describe today's event as a planned stage in the regular start-up operations. Nuclear professionals say the plant is not finished yet; it is 95% ready and the construction will be completed by the end of this year.
A source in the nuclear industry admitted to NG that for Iranians, it was important to refer to Wednesday's event as a "pre-commissioning," because the wording was significant for their domestic politics.
"But we would rather say we are planning a routine meeting for today, attended by Russia's Kiriyenko and head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aghazadeh. We'll also inject 'virtual' fuel into rods," the source said. He said there were no plans to load real nuclear fuel into the reactor today.
"Virtual" fuel is used in hydraulic tests, nuclear experts explain. "We have been doing it for some time in fact. It takes a long time. We'll need to load a total of 180 rods. Seven are already in," the source added.
Moscow is more focused on the actual commissioning and launch of the plant, located on the Gulf coast in southwestern Iran. One important stage is to begin production, and the other, to begin channeling power to the country's grids, the source said without giving dates for either.
Andrei Cherkasenko, head of AtomPromResursy, a manufacturer of equipment for the nuclear power industry in Russia, said both Russian and Iranian specialists estimate the plant's readiness at 95% and confirmed the construction would be completed before the yearend.
Vedomosti
Crisis marks end to oligarchic capitalism in Russia
The ongoing financial and economic crisis may provoke a redistribution of wealth in Russia at such an unpredictable scale as to make the state fear this unwanted nationalization, a Russian analyst writes.
Andrei Kolesnikov, head of the Political Philosophy Center, writes that the changing structure of ownership and use of property could change the structure of the Russian economy and Russian capitalism. As a result, oligarchic capitalism may cease to exist in Russia.
A recent example is a meeting of the State Council in Irkutsk, East Siberia, where aluminum oligarch Oleg Deripaska was refused direct state financial assistance. It was argued that he had already received such assistance, and the state planned to spend the remaining funds rationally, to "save people, not companies," the analyst writes.
This means that all business leaders in Russia who have received their share of the crisis sellout will have to make do with what they have and enter the market on equal competitive conditions with other businesses. According to Kolesnikov, this may be the end of crony capitalism.
The country's leadership has no time for oligarchs now, especially since they are unable to help the government solve its main social problem, unemployment, which, if it grows too high, could become a political problem.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov has told Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that unemployment may reach 2.2 million people in 2009, much higher than the initial forecast of 1.6 million. As of February 11, there were 1.807 million jobless in Russia and given the current dynamics the forecasts may have to be increased.
Since the oligarchs are unable to help solve this problem, the government will not assist them in weathering the crisis. It has other headaches. Nobody will protest if a side effect of stimulating small and medium-sized businesses is a fundamental change in the structure of the Russian economy, Kolesnikov concludes.
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