ESTONIA
Observers believe that the strong dependence of Estonia's Russian speakers on Russian television is dangerous for Estonian society because it is further splitting the country along ethnic lines. "The [Estonian] Human Development Report points out that 93% of Estonia's Russian speakers watch Russian TV channels, and 68% of them read Russian newspapers published in Estonia... A feeling of solidarity and mutual confidence are relatively week in Estonia; mistrust has grown after last April's events [transfer of the Bronze Soldier statue]." (Eesti Paevaleht, March 18).
Commentators are linking Washington's reserved reaction to Beijing's suppression of massive protests in Lhasa (Tibet) with Kosovo's recent precedent. They believe that Moscow may derive some benefits from these events. "The Kremlin is silent for the time being, but Russian television channels are backing Tibet. This is not surprising because in this way it is possible to cut Washington to size for recognizing Kosovo's independence and at the same time instigate Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr. It is no secret that the Kremlin is always pleased to hear Beijing being criticized for its treatment of national minorities because in this case, Russia is not blamed for events in Chechnya and violations of human rights against its own ethnic minorities... Now big countries have to keep their mouth shut on the status of democracy in Russia." (Parnu Postimees, March 18).
LATVIA
The media are paying attention to changes in personnel in Russian regions where governors with law-enforcement backgrounds are being replaced by professional managers. "It seems that the time of general-governors is receding into the past... The mobilization period when tough politicians were required is finally coming to an end. Managers rather than generals or politicians are appointed as regional governors. This is quite logical under the conditions of achieved political stability." (Chas, March 13).
Experts believe that Russia may use two different scenarios for settling conflicts on post-Soviet territory. In the case of Transdnestr, it may go for a package agreement under which Tiraspol will be formally subordinate to Chisinau, but will enjoy the rights of full-fledged autonomy; Moldova will receive the status of a neutral state. Analyzing the situation with breakaway republics on the territory of Georgia, commentators believe that Russia may recognize their sovereignty. "As expected, the Kosovo precedent has created an impetus for the talks on the status of other self-proclaimed republics. Thus, Moscow is ready to guarantee restoration of Moldova's territorial integrity in exchange for its refusal to enter NATO." (Telegraf, March 12).
"The Russian Federation Council will support the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgia joins NATO... In this way, they will back up the positions of their leaders who declared that if Georgia enters NATO, these states will not be part of it. The Russian State Duma is also going to adopt a resolution on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia." (Biznes&Baltiya, March 18).
LITHUANIA
Recalling how George W. Bush made a mistake in his assessment of Vladimir Putin, commentators are worried that Dmitry Medvedev's liberal image may also confuse the West. "Psychologically, the West has many complexes when it comes to Russia - it likes to be cheated, avoids direct eye contact, and is grateful for every opportunity to please it. The presidential elections in Russia show that our eastern neighbor knows how to manipulate Western countries, which are ready to smile, even when realizing that they are victims of foul play. It is enough to say that having called these elections undemocratic, the West has congratulated Medvedev as president elect and is hoping that he may be less tough and stubborn than Putin." (Vaidas, March 12).
Analysts believe that contrary to the assertions of the Russian government, the country is not guaranteed against a crisis. "The debts of public and private companies are equal to the size of the entire Stabilization Fund and gold and currency reserves... If a crisis breaks out, the international creditors will demand that Russian companies pay their debts and the authorities will have to open their piggy bank... All the talk about the absence of Russia's debts is a myth created by the authorities and disseminated by journalists to the public. The state does not have debts, but the companies, which keep Russia alive are deeply in debt." (Litovsky Kurier, March 13).
BELARUS
Experts from non-government publications are talking about the possibility of Moscow and Washington jointly overthrowing the Alexander Lukashenko regime. "It is not clear why Moscow has allowed Lukashenko to draw it into a debate with Washington on Alexander Kozulin [leader of the Belarusian opposition Social-Democratic Gramada Party]... Strange as it may seem, but in this case they appear to act together. It seems that they have reached an agreement on the main issue - if Lukashenko is not ready to leave himself, he should be helped. The United States is exerting political pressure, while Moscow is taking the situation under full economic control... One thing remains unclear, though - will the United States and Europe accept Lukashenko's civilized but pro-Russian successor or not. A positive answer means that Lukashenko's departure is a question of the near future." (Belarusskyi Partisan, March 17).
Most observers believe that implementing the Mediterranean Union future idea will finally split Europe into zones of Russian and Western influence. "The new European project of the Mediterranean Union is destroying even the hypothetical possibility of Belarus joining the European Union... Russia will stand to gain from this project because the union's emergence is bound to split Europe into northern and southern parts. Russia has traditionally dealt with North European countries. Therefore, after the Europeans finally divide into those who are looking to the south and the east, it will find it even easier to dictate its terms to Germany and the Scandinavian countries, not to mention Poland or the Baltic nations." (Telegraf, March 17).
UKRAINE
The media are happily discussing the unprecedentedly successful outcome of the recent gas conflict, which ended in the resumption of Gazprom's supplies to Ukraine, despite Kiev's failure to carry out the agreements reached by the presidents of the two countries in Moscow. "Russia's decision to resume gas supplies to Ukraine has taken the Russian people aback. Their confusion is easy to understand. Many years of government persuasion have convinced them that Gazprom has the powers of God. But suddenly the great and horrible monster opened the gas tap for the Ukrainian thieves without even waiting to be paid for previous supplies. This would have bewildered anyone, so it is no wonder that they have gone nuts." (ProUa, March 12).
Many authors believe that tensions in relations between Russia and the West are primarily caused by the different mentality of their leaders. They are emphasizing that a lack of understanding is bound to produce negative consequences, first of all, for Russia. "'Russian nationalist' Putin now believes that countries may be united by common values. He does not believe in values himself, and dismisses their mention as a trick. But it transpires that renunciation of these values means non-participation in major decisions (like happened with Kosovo). Putin is convinced a Western conspiracy exists. This logic explains why he is trying to remind others of his presence by using the few available instruments of pressure at his disposal... He is irritated and disappointed when these threats fail to produce the desired effect. Putin thinks that Medvedev will pursue the same policy, but in this case he will encounter similar difficulties." (Den, March 13).
MOLDOVA
Observers are upset that having agreed to sign a declaration settling the Transdnestr issue, which guarantees Moldova's neutral status, the West, as represented by the EU, OSCE, and the United States has actually allowed Moscow to federalize the republic. They are strongly critical of the Kremlin's policy of bribing foreign leaders. "The document is a new triumph of Russian diplomacy, which has changed its tactic after the failure of [Dmitry] Kozak's memorandum. The Russians have quickly made [Vladimir] Voronin much milder. They have brainwashed him as only they can do; they have humiliated him as a vassal, and knowing his flaws, have tempted him with high church awards... Those who believe Russian diplomacy are either completely naive or aliens. Even after signing the declaration, the Russians will not withdraw their troops from Transdnestr." (Timpul de Dimineata, March 13).
National publications are skeptical about President Voronin's statement on his readiness to exchange a Russian troop withdrawal from Transdnestr for Moldova's neutral status. Experts are convinced that Voronin has fallen victim to the Kremlin's political trick. "Moscow is trying to lay new preconditions, for instance, Transdnestr's veto right in a re-united country. But such a compromise will not imply a Russian troop pullout, but only a promise of it... Voronin and his advisors should admit that Moscow has outwitted them by hinting that a settlement was around the corner, and simultaneously discussing its continued military presence in Moldova with the United States and other NATO countries." (Jurnal de Chisinau, March 18).
ARMENIA
Commenting on the "pro-Azerbaijani" resolution on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue adopted by the United Nations, the mass media stress that Uzbekistan, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), supported the resolution. Journalists noticed that in 2004, two other member states, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, supported a similar Azerbaijani initiative. Observers think that the evident contradictions inside of this military-political organization discredit its very existence. "In the last four years, official Baku, which is accusing Armenia (a CSTO member state) of invading its territory and conducting ethnic cleansings, has been supported by member states Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. This will definitely affect the alliance's reputation. Besides, it contradicts the organization's charter." (Golos Armenii, March 18).
GEORGIA
The mass media have noted official Tbilisi's reserved attitude toward the fact that Moscow lifted sanctions against Abkhazia. It seems that Tbilisi is hoping to win approval for joining NATO at the April summit in Bucharest. "It seems that the Georgian authorities desist from radical measures in reply to the steps taken by Russia, at least, before the Bucharest summit. Official Tbilisi hopes for the desired decision for Georgia." (24 Saati, March 12).
Georgian politicians reacted sharply to the term "postponed status" that the Russian State Duma proposed giving Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "What does it mean? Speaking of Abkhazia, it is a robbery of the coastline... It is a precondition for turning Abkhazians into a cheap work force, squandering Abkhazia's natural resources and full assimilation and the destruction of the Abkhazian people. Russia attacked again and struck a catastrophic blow against Abkhazians and Ossetians." (Akhali Taoba, March 17).
Some experts believe that the State Duma discussions on the status of self-proclaimed republics in CIS countries are directed not against Georgia, but against the West. The Kremlin expresses its discontent with Kosovo's declared independence in this way. "Primarily, it is the reaction of an irritated Russia, which was not taken into account, although it desperately defended Serbia's territorial integrity. Russia wants to show the world that if others refuse to consider it, it will make serious problems for its foreign partners. Therefore, the recent steps taken by Moscow were directed not against Georgia, but against the West." (Rezonansi, March 15).
AZERBAIJAN
Observers agree that Moscow is actively using "territorial blackmail" to prevent some CIS countries from joining NATO. "In connection with the expansion of NATO, Russia has made conflicts on post-Soviet territory negotiable. It means that Moscow publicly said it supported separatist regimes and that the settlement of conflicts fully depends on Russia." (Xalq Cebhesi, March 12).
"Ahead of the NATO summit in Bucharest, Russia is trying to keep Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Azerbaijan under its influence by all means...Moldova will leave GUAM if it is tempted by Russia, which wants to keep troops in Transdnestr." (Ekspress, March 12).
Russia has always wanted to occupy Azerbaijan. Now it has 20% of its territory. If we accept Voronin's offer (territorial integrity in exchange for a neutral status) we will lose the other 80%. Azerbaijan will never refuse to join NATO and GUAM. NATO is our security guarantee." (Bizim Iol, March 14).
KAZAKHSTAN
Experts say that Gazprom's agreement with energy companies in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to start buying natural gas at European prices in 2009 has effectively put an end to the ex-Soviet Central-Asian states' interest in projects to build gas pipelines bypassing Russia. Moreover, neither Ukraine, which is the key customer for Central-Asian gas, nor its Western sponsors will now be able to accuse Russia of profiteering using non-transparent pricing schemes.
"The idea was to make Central-Asian gas suppliers abandon their plans to ship gas to Europe bypassing Russia, and to eliminate grounds for Gazprom's customers, primarily Ukraine and Belarus, to accuse Moscow of profiteering. The Central-Asian republics, in turn, gladly used the opportunity to their own benefit." (EkspressK, March 13).
"Although provoked by both the West and the gas suppliers with their wise schemes, Gazprom played it brilliantly: it preserved its important energy partners by satisfying their price requests and promoted its own transit routes, including the projected Caspian pipeline. Therefore, Gazprom effectively reduced to naught its western rivals' efforts to lobby alternative pipelines, particularly the Transcaspian one." (Delovaya Nedelya, March 14).
KYRGYZSTAN
Certain media repeat the rumors that the recent killings of guest workers in Russia are orchestrated by Western countries, which are trying to put Russia at odds with its CIS partners, thus weakening its reputation in the former Soviet republics. "Experts believe that the United States is scheming to weaken Russia's influence in Central Asia. That is the reason why it seeks to destabilize Russia's relations with the former Soviet republics. Western political technologists may be deliberately provoking Russian skinheads to step up their fight against non-Russians in order to trigger a naturally negative response from the national chauvinists in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Moldova. The obvious purpose of such schemes is to drive a wedge between Russia and its CIS partners." (Agym, March 7).
Some experts believe that Russia is a more reliable partner for Kyrgyzstan than the United States or China. "The United States is one of the key players in the region. It has been providing substantial financial assistance to Kyrgyzstan since its first day of independence. But, one should bear in mind that, rephrasing a well-known statement once said about Britain, America "has no eternal friends," it has "only eternal and perpetual interests." We also should be very careful in our relations with China. In this context, Russia is the only great power which can be viewed as a tried-and-true partner of Kyrgyzstan." (Aalam, March 7).
Reporting on the demonstrations which demanded a withdrawal of the Manas U.S. air base, mass media quoted experts who warned against straining relations with the U.S. or other global powers. "First, it is too small a fry to make a difference for the U.S.. Second, one shouldn't pick fights with such powers as the U.S., China or Russia. They should be negotiated with, in order to reach mutually acceptable and advantageous agreements without making any fuss." (Agym, March 12).
TURKMENISTAN
The agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the projected Caspian pipeline made the biggest news of the week. Experts view the agreements reached as a much-desired compromise on the price of gas Russia buys from the Central Asian nations. "The Central Asian leaders, who realized how important the agreement was for Russia, made the highest demands they could in the situation, and Gazprom agreed."
"With the Caspian pipeline laid and the Central Asia-Center system modernized, Russia will be able to maintain its monopoly on exporting Central Asian gas to Europe for a little longer and therefore to delay the emergence of a competition between the Russian and Central Asian gas on the world market." (Turkmenia.info, March 15).
"Gazprom's consent to the ultimatum will effectively thwart the Washington-backed Transcaspian pipeline project, which would run along the Caspian seabed from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, Turkey and on to the Balkans." (Turkmenia.info, March 12).
Analysts have long been pointing out the weakness of Gazprom's position, as the Russian gas giant refused to buy the Turkmen gas at a higher price because Turkmenistan had no alternative to Russian transit routes anyway. "True, there is no other pipeline, except, perhaps, the Iranian one. But there is a tight political knot of tangled relations in the Caspian region, is which Turkmen gas plays a role as important as Kazakh oil. Both commodities' transportation is the problem of Russia's political position on the Caspian. If Russia wants to call that non-existent pipeline - the missing transit route - into existence, it might as well keep resisting." (Dogry Yol, March 13).
The post-election situation in Russia is seen as absurd: experts say that two presidents are too much even for the Kremlin. "Two Russian presidents in the Kremlin are too much. One of them will certainly have to issue a special decree for the slow-witted Russian functionaries explaining that they should obey the other one just as well. Russian officials already refer to Vladimir Putin as "the tsar" when speaking between themselves. What should they do now, with the heir bossing around the Kremlin while the old sovereign is still alive?" (Gudogar, March 7.)
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