MOSCOW, February 28 (RIA Novosti) Russia would prefer Obama / March 2 will imitate presidential election, but chance for better remains / Ukraine continues to unnerve Gazprom / Transneft ready to start building second leg of ESPO / Norilsk Nickel set to enter Russian coal market / Moscow police crack down on skinheads
Izvestia
Russia would prefer Obama
Russians have a simplified view of American politics. They think that Republicans are hawkish, while Democrats have a greater concern for social programs and the economy.
Pro-Kremlin political analysts say the victory of Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona and the most popular presidential candidate among likely voters nationwide, would be the worst scenario. According to them, the victory of either of the two Democratic nominees - Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton - would be preferable for Russia.
McCain is a tough politician with a bad reputation in Russia. He called for excluding Russia from the G8 and said about Vladimir Putin: "I looked into his eyes and saw three letters: a K, a G and a B."
When asked during the current presidential campaign if he would fight with Russia, he said it would depend on the Kremlin's behavior.
On the other hand, Russians have always liked Republicans more, possibly because of their simplified, mostly black-and-white view of the world, or because they thought these hotheaded cowboys can do anything, or because Russian leaders just loved their tough style.
This can be said about relations between Nikita Khrushchev and Dwight Eisenhower, when the Soviet leader became the first top man in the Kremlin to visit the United States, and between Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon, when the founding documents to curb the arms race were signed.
This is also true about relations between Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, when the Cold War ended, and the presidency of George Bush Sr., when Russian-American relations became really close.
Democratic presidents have always been more difficult for Soviet and Russian leaders. Jimmy Carter moralized too much and too often; half the world boycotted the Moscow Olympics during his presidency. Bill Clinton turned out to be too sly for Boris Yeltsin, and actually initiated the process that has led to the recent self-proclamation of Kosovo. This has driven a large wedge between the two countries.
Some political analysts in Russia say that Obama, whom Americans compare to John Kennedy, would be the best option for Russia. They say he will renew the U.S. policy and revive hope for the future. But the latter could engender a series of powerful competitive challenges to Russia.
The Peace Corps set up during JFK's presidency promoted American ideals in the world by applying the so-called soft power methods. Kennedy also launched the Moon exploration program and the Vietnam War. And it was during his term that the Soviet Union and America came closest to a third world war (the Cuban Missile Crisis).
Kommersant Vlast
March 2 will imitate presidential election, but chance for better remains
On March 2, Dmitry Medvedev will become Russia's president-elect. Readers of the weekly Kommersant Vlast have various opinions on what to call the upcoming transfer-of-power procedure.
Pavel Krasheninnikov, chairman of the State Duma's legislation committee and head of the Medvedev campaign's drop-in center, said: "Does anybody have any doubts? We have four candidates, and voters are free either to go or not to go to the polls. Unlike other countries, our voters will not be fined or taken to court for failing to go to the election polls."
Yevgeny Saburov, director of the Institute for Education Development, said: "It will be a day of nationwide affection for the one already elected. The actual election took place long before March 2. The rest of the voters are left loving the one elected and those who did the electing for them."
Lydmila Alekseyeva, chairperson of the Moscow Helsinki Group, said: "Our polls have already been held and shown to the world that in our multi-million country there is only one real voter - Vladimir Putin."
Sergei Shargunov, the writer, a former No. 3 on the A Just Russia federal ticket in elections for a fifth State Duma, said: "This is not an election, and I personally will not go to the polls. But I do not rule out that as a result of such an election everything will change and the new president will opt for a political thaw rather than for biting morning frosts."
Maxim Bystrov, deputy regional development minister, said: "It is an election whatever way you look at it. Every person decides for himself or herself whether to go or not, to vote or to refrain."
Sergei Ivanenko, deputy chairman of the Yabloko party, said: "It is an imitation election - what is being done is appointing a successor. But we remember from Russian history that people appointed have behaved differently. Examples are Mikhail Gorbachev and Catherine the Great. True, this is an imitation ballot; true, a successor will be named, but you should not tear your hair out and scream that everything is gone."
Sergei Filatov, head of the Congress of Russian Intellectuals, and chief of staff of the Presidential Executive Office in 1993-96, said: "In voting terms, yes, it is an election. In terms of conditioning and screening out all unwanted opponents, no. It is a sort of game, which is totally incomprehensible. It seems to be designed to discredit the very institution of elections."
Vladimir Pribylovsky, president of the Information and Research Center, said: "This is not an election, it is a formal written statement to register an accomplished fact. Without such attributes as elections, parliament and other democratic institutions no one is allowed to join the world community, just as restaurants do not serve customers without pants."
Gazeta
Ukraine continues to unnerve Gazprom
Russian gas giant Gazprom has, as to date, been unable to receive monies due from Ukraine for its 2007 gas debts. Ukrainian politicians have avoided discussion of this subject, trying to mark time until the Russian presidential election.
Gazprom is demanding that Ukraine repay its debt of $1.5 billion for previous gas supplies and also sign a contract for this year's deliveries. However, Naftogaz of Ukraine officially recognized only its debt to the joint venture UkrGazEnergo, amounting to $1.045 billion.
Gazprom spokesmen made an official statement that starting from 10 a.m. (Moscow time) on March 3, Gazprom will reduce gas supplies to Ukraine by 25% if all the debts are not paid off before then.
On February 26, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko asked Vladimir Putin to put pressure on Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is obviously trying to change the situation for her own benefit and place gas supplies under her control.
Experts view the Ukrainian politicians' actions as an attempt to delay the decision on gas contracts as long as possible.
"Russia cannot afford any worsening of international relations right now, therefore Ukraine will be marking time until the last moment and make concessions only under the threat of Russia's resolute actions. This is the Ukrainian side's usual tactic," says Alexander Shatilov, an expert at the Center for Political Studies.
He does not rule out that the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko confrontation is a way to cheat Russia, a sort of good cop/ bad cop game in order to buy time.
"Thus far Russia has been tolerant of Ukraine because Ukraine is a transit country. Should a threat arise to the stability of gas supplies to Europe, the EU will, primarily, blame Russia, not Ukraine. This situation will continue until the commissioning of the Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines. When these pipelines are put into operation, Ukraine will no longer be able to unnerve Gazprom," Shatilov said.
Kommersant
Transneft ready to start building second leg of ESPO
Nikolai Tokarev, president of Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft, said planning for the second leg of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline would start in March, and the pipeline would reach its capacity of 80 million metric tons (588 million bbl) of oil by 2014-2015.
Analysts question these figures, saying that work on the second part of the project has been accelerated for political reasons, such as China's firm stance at talks with state-controlled oil company Rosneft.
Both southern and northern routes for the pipeline were considered, with a distance of 60 km (37 miles) between them. Tokarev says they have opted for the longer, southern route (1,963 km, or 1,220 miles), because the northern route would run across difficult terrain.
Analysts wonder why the monopoly has decided to launch the project sooner than planned and to commission the first leg 12 months ahead of schedule. The latter decision was made soon after Tokarev was appointed head of Transneft.
Experts say there are several reasons for this.
Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner at the RusEnergy consultancy, said: "First, China has not accepted the commercial delivery terms proposed by Rosneft, and an alternative route is needed. Second, there are problems with financing the construction of infrastructure for the local railroad and with oil supply tariffs. The price of oil delivery from Skovorodino to the Pacific coast has been set at $42-$48 per metric ton, too high to make the route attractive."
Denis Borisov of the Solid investment company says the pipeline is unlikely to be filled without taking oil from other routes. He said: "Analysis of the announced projects in Eastern Siberia shows that it will be impossible to provide enough oil for the second ESPO leg without affecting the current priorities [westward oil deliveries and supplies to the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline], especially if we consider the current policy of increasing oil refining in Russia."
He said enough oil would be provided to the ESPO pipeline only if some oil were taken away from the traditional routes, such as the Druzhba pipeline running across Belarus.
Transneft, Russian ministries and departments concerned and analysts cannot say how much the second ESPO leg may cost. Spending on the first leg nearly doubled during construction. Taking into account the cost of the first leg (without allocations for the construction of a special oil terminal in the Kozmino Bay), the second leg could cost more than 245 billion rubles ($10 billion).
Vedomosti
Norilsk Nickel set to enter Russian coal market
On February 26, Severnaya Zvezda, a subsidiary of Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel, won a 33.6 million ruble ($1.39 million) tender for the right to develop the Syradasaiskoye rich coking coal deposit on the Taimyr Peninsula, northern Russia.
Australia's BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, will help implement the $1.5 billion project.
Analysts called the investment justified, predicting long-term coking coal shortages and rising coal prices.
Norilsk Nickel deputy CEO Maxim Finsky said the company could provide the aforementioned investment, and that it could cooperate with the Australian company.
BHP Billiton, which signed a strategic partnership agreement with Norilsk Nickel in 2006, will receive a 50% stake (minus one share) in the Syradasaiskoye deposit.
Corporate spokespersons declined to comment on the issue.
The Krasnoyarsk division of the Federal Agency for the Management of Mineral Resources said the deposit had contained an estimated 5.7 billion metric tons of recoverable coal in 1988.
Norilsk Nickel hopes to consolidate 5.5 billion metric tons, including 5 billion metric tons of coking coal, by 2013, Finsky told the paper.
The deposit can annually produce 12 million tons of coal, as well as 9.5-10 million metric tons of concentrate. Coal stripping and a factory, due to attain design capacity by 2016, will be commissioned at the deposit. Most coal will be sold on the domestic market and the rest exported to Europe.
Dmitry Smolin, an analyst with Uralsib Financial Company, said coal was a good business diversification option, and that the project would recoup itself because a metric ton of coal concentrate now cost over $170 on the Russian market.
Moskovsky Komsomolets
Moscow police crack down on skinheads
Police officers have been detaining suspicious-looking young people all over Moscow, including the city metro, for over a week. The suspects are fingerprinted, have their mug shots taken at local police stations and also submit written statements denying any involvement with nationalist organizations.
The police have started cracking down on local youth gangs, which used to target foreigners, primarily the citizens of former South Caucasian and Central Asian republics, because standard preventive measures were ineffective.
Special patrol squads comprising plainclothes policemen, detectives and civilian-patrol members round up teenagers with shaven heads, as well as other youngsters wearing clothes that resemble skinhead uniforms and thick-sole shoes.
Oleg Novikov of the human-rights foundation Public Verdict said the Police Act made it absolutely clear when suspects could be booked, fingerprinted and photographed. He said it was illegal to detain a person, unless he or she was officially charged with a crime and unless there was ample reason for arrest.
He said the police could summon anyone for a conversation, and that there would be no violations if teenagers were cooperative, agreed to have their fingerprints and mug shots taken and submitted written statements.
The leader of a Russian nationalist group said many of his supporters had been checked during Operation Skinhead, and that the police had detained several members of his organization. They were physically abused after spending several hours at a police station and are now preparing to sue the police.
He said those attacking foreigners did not look like typical skinheads, that all criminals tried to change their appearance, and that the police crackdown would produce no results.
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