ESTONIA
The press is ironic about Dmitry Medvedev's refusal to take part in televised debates. "Can you imagine a situation where Barak Obama would be popular just because he was selected by current President George W. Bush? How can the main presidential nominee refuse to take part in public debates? By doing so he shows to the people how little he respects them." (Parnu Postimees, February 5)
The media are enthusiastically commenting on the Kremlin's intention to reduce the funding of Nashi (Ours). Some observers are giving Estonia credit for this because Estonia blacklisted the pro-Kremlin movement, thereby depriving its members of the opportunity to travel to the Schengen zone.
"There are signals that the Kremlin no longer needs the Nashi movement... Its members will have to bid farewell to summer camps where they could shoot at portraits of the Estonian prime minister or exercise with the army... A whole generation's prospects for the future have been destroyed with a cynical KGB attitude... But there may be another view - it's a pity that such a curious movement will be gone or mothballed. The more totalitarian and unpleasant Russia is, the better for us. (Eesti Ekspress, February 1)
"Apparently, those who are pulling the strings in the Kremlin, have realized that Nashi's outrageous behavior at the Estonian Embassy has done no good for Russia's image and diplomatic reputation." (Postimees, February 2)
LATVIA
The press is commenting on recent statements by Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and head of RAO UES of Russia Anatoly Chubais. They have appealed to the government to change Russia's tough foreign policy in order to create a stable foundation for investment in the Russian economy. "What does this mean? Is it a split in President Putin's entourage, or a scheme designed to allow his successor Medvedev to make a smooth transition from confrontation with the West to compromise?" (Telegraf, February 1)
National publications are concerned about the growth of Russian investment in the Latvian economy because it may turn the country into the Kremlin's agent of influence in the European Union. "When Putin starts buying gas stations and gas infrastructure in Europe, or Russia displays interest in Lattelecom [a Latvian telecommunications company], we should remember that some states are doing this to exert influence on the policy of others... This is how the former are conquering the latter without the use of armed force, but with the help of dollars." (Nedelya, January 30)
The Russian-language press is urging its opponents to give up the stereotypes of confrontational mentality and not to ignore opportunities inherent in economic relations with Russia. "Latvia has not yet lost its chance to become Russia's energy partner, but some people are horrified by this prospect. They see Latvia's mission as spitting at its eastern neighbor and giving its economic opportunities to rivals." (Vesti-Segodnya, January 30)
LITHUANIA
Many publications are again writing about Nord Stream, the North European gas pipeline. Experts maintain that despite the protests of Poland and Baltic countries, the EU will not prevent the laying of the pipe along the Baltic Sea bed.
"Last week, the Polish government suggested building a gas pipeline on the ground from Russia to Germany... The Baltic nations are ready to join the project and pay part of the expenses, but... Germany's transit duties will cause gas prices to be too expensive." (Respublika, February 1)
"Lithuania is completely dependent on Russian gas. Alternative gas routes are so far just pipe dreams... Europe is merely talking about different Nabucco-type projects, whereas Russia is already laying Nord Stream on the Baltic Sea bed despite protests coming from small EU countries. Judging by everything, it will make Europe even more dependent on Russian gas. This is diversification, European style - simply words." (Litovsky Kurier, January 31)
BELARUS
The media are writing about a new thaw in relations between Moscow and Minsk, but they believe that Belarus will not benefit from this rapprochement.
"The Russian and Belarusian presidents have started meeting each other more often. Experts do not quite understand why the recent antagonists are drawn to each other. Official reports by news agencies are disguising serious issues under standard phrases about expanding integration." (Belorussky Partisan, February 4)
"The main problem is that after some hesitation, Belarus has again turned to Russia and rushed to hug it, but current developments in Russia are giving us food for thought - do we really need such an ally, and will Belarus gain anything from such friendship? Regrettably, the answers to these questions are not comforting." (Solidarnost, February 3)
Opposition journalists are convinced that Moscow's successes in the energy sphere are producing a markedly negative effect on Russia's domestic political life. "Dizziness with success, inadequate perceptions of reality,...non-labor revenues. These are the main features of life in modern Russia. It indulges in oil and gas self-deception and is choking from the vapor of its own natural resources. The country is starting to look like a poisoned man...It is like a monster with childish ways...One president is appointing another...Athletes and showmen are performing in parliament, and dozens of clever people who the country needs have been removed from the political scene." (Nashe Mneniye, January 30)
UKRAINE
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has invited the EU to cooperate in building the White Stream gas pipeline bypassing Russia. Most publications have considered this project a fantasy because the construction of such a transit corridor is unthinkable without the consent of gas producers, primarily Russia and Turkmenistan. Ashgabat has already expressed surprise at Tymoshenko's attempts to involve it in the project. Journalists have no doubts about Moscow's response to this idea of an alternative route.
"The decision to build this gas pipeline will be made in Russia, not in any other state. Russia is unlikely to make a decision which would be against its interests." (ForUm, January 31) "Yulia Tymoshenko's Brussels proposal on the construction of a new gas pipeline, White Stream, may lead to an increase in gas prices for Ukraine...The debts of the UkrGazEnergo [Ukrainian natural gas supply company] are growing, and supplies of ‘cheap' Central Asian gas are dwindling implacably, while Gazprom has already quoted its price. Conclusions suggest themselves." (ProUa, January 30)
Experts believe that having signed a protocol on WTO entry, Ukraine has received a means to exert pressure on Russia. But most publications are of the opinion that the government should display caution in using the new opportunities in economic conflicts with Moscow; otherwise, Russia will again resort to its tried-and-true method of "persuasion" - gas supplies.
"The Kremlin will need Kiev's signature under the protocol on accession into the WTO. Ukraine should present its package of terms but not cross the line...No one can guarantee that Moscow will yield to Ukraine's covert economic blackmail. Most likely, Moscow will seek signatures under all remaining protocols. Later on, the Kremlin will try to bring pressure to bear on Ukraine." (ProUa, January 30)
ARMENIA
The non-governmental press has qualified a number of events in Armenia attended by Russian leading politicians and businessmen as the Kremlin's undisguised attempt to support a pro-Russian presidential nominee.
"Russia has always backed the criminal Armenian government and is trying to take an active part in the election by sending its high-ranking members to Armenia on official visits. It looks like Russia is encouraging the current regime. Its lack of discretion stems from its great powerful ways. The latter underlie political technologies where conduct is dictated by force rather than reason." (Aikakan Zhamanak, January 30)
GEORGIA
The media do not doubt that Kosovo's international recognition will directly affect the status of breakaway republics in post-Soviet countries. "If the international community starts reformatting the world based on the ‘right of nations to self-determination,' the first in line will be the enclaves that already have de facto independence - northern Cyprus, Karabakh, Transdnestr, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia." (Georgia Online, January 30)
The Georgian government explains Moscow's concern over the Kosovo issue by its anxiety about its own problems, and maintains that it is not in its interests to instigate the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But experts are urging Tbilisi to display caution - Kremlin policymakers are right in saying that Kosovo is bound to create a precedent, and Georgia will be beset with problems.
"Russia is concerned not about Abkhazia or South Ossetia. It is worried that Kosovo's recognition will create problems for it in the North Caucasus." (Georgia Online, February 5) "Recognition of Kosovo's independence, which is already automatically accepted by the entire European Union (with a few exceptions like Greece and Cyprus), is bound to make it more difficult for Georgia to restore its territorial integrity. This will be a precedent... with psychological and emotional repercussions." (Rezonansi, February 1)
"The problem remains a problem, and the danger is still there... Russia should not recognize Abkhazia and Samachablo [one of the Georgian names for South Ossetia] not because it does not like them, but proceeding from its own national interests. But Russia is using this issue as a lever of pressure and is likely to use it in the future. For this reason, there is nothing to celebrate yet, and the threat of the conflict regions' recognition still exists." (Akhali Taoba, February 1)
AZERBAIJAN
The press is convinced that the Kremlin, which is pursuing an aggressive policy toward CIS countries, is not going to lose its positions in post-Soviet republics. Experts predict that Ukraine will soon face economic sanctions and reprisals against guest workers - all the troubles that befell Georgia when it announced its intention to join NATO in no uncertain terms.
Russia is declaring that it is not going to dominate post-Soviet territory and intends to develop normal diplomatic relations with all post-Soviet republics... [However,] it is enough for its next-door neighbors, especially those that are strategically important for Moscow, to turn to the West, or make a statement on this score and Russia instantly loses its temper... The Ukrainian leaders are openly saying that they need NATO membership for future accession to the EU... If this happens, Ukraine as a member of numerous Kremlin-controlled organizations will become small fry. Thousands of [Ukrainian] guest workers in Russia will be used by Moscow as a lever of pressure. Economic sanctions will be imposed next. It is enough to recall Georgia with its wine and mineral water." (Ekspress, February 1)
KAZAKHSTAN
Moscow's decision to build a new Russian space base in the east has caused Astana concern over Baikonur's future. Experts believe that there are reasons for Russia to continue using the latter.
"Russia needs this program to develop its industry in the Far East, and to award government orders in high technologies to local plants. Moreover, the Russian Navy and ground forces will receive new generation missiles, which will considerably consolidate Russia's Far Eastern borders. As for Baikonur, paying $115 million for rent is not a burden for Russia at all. For this reason, Russia is not likely to abandon Baikonur in the future. Baikonur is advantageous for Russia." (Aikyn, February 2)
Some publications are reporting the budding rapprochement between Uzbekistan and the United States after discord because of the events in Andijan [May 13, 2005]. Experts believe that Washington is ready to go for this in order to prevent the consolidation of Russian and Chinese positions in the region, while Tashkent is motivated by the signs of misunderstanding in its relations with Moscow in the last few months. Journalists are interested whether Uzbekistan will succeed in using contradictions between the great powers to its own advantage. "Tashkent was pleased to receive a proposal on the normalization of contacts, but made it clear to Washington that Russia, European countries, and China are very active in the republic, and that the Americans will have to work hard if they want to fully restore their positions there... It remains to be seen whether Tashkent will manage to benefit by playing the ‘American card' because its big next-door neighbors - Russia and China - will have a predictable response to such cooperation."
(Delovaya Nedelya, February 1)
KYRGYZSTAN
Experts are emphasizing the influence of external factors on the course and outcome of the December Kyrgyz parliamentary election campaign. They believe that building a political model after the Russian pattern is fraught with political instability.
"The Russian leader... pushed Kyrgyzstan to hold unfair and dishonest elections... The Kyrgyz authorities have chosen the Putin road. There is no difference whatsoever between the principles underlying the formation of the United Russia party and its Kyrgyz counterpart Ak Zhola... Vladimir Putin gave Kurmanbek Bakiyev a bad example. The Russians are trying to build the CIS in line with the principles of the former Soviet Union, but this road will not lead us to anything good. This is exactly why the Communist Party was abolished in the past. This is the future of all initiatives by authoritarian leaders." (De-Fakto, January 31).
TURKMENISTAN
Analysts are writing about the West's stepped up attempts to create routes for transporting Turkmen energy resources to Europe bypassing Russia.
"Recently, the West and Turkmenistan have intensified their negotiations on Central Asian gas supplies to Europe bypassing Russia, at top level... Ashgabat played host to one U.S. official after another. U.S. Senator Richard Lugar, head of the U.S. Central Command William Fallon, and the State Department's Coordinator for Eurasia Energy Diplomacy Steven Mann... did not avoid discussing energy security. During his conversation with the Turkmen leader, Senator Lugar presented a ‘road map' describing the development of cross border gas mains that do not pass through Russian territory." (Gundogar, February 1)
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