MOSCOW, August 21 (RIA Novosti) Russia's access to Central Asian energy resources may be restricted /Astana insists on greater Caspian Pipeline capacity/Russia's WTO accession may be hindered again/Moldovan wine producers refuse to return to Russian market/Russian auto unions join forces for higher wages
Kommersant
Russia's access to Central Asian energy resources may be restricted
Late last week, Russia's monopoly right to deliver energy from Central Asia to Europe suffered a heavy blow.
The U.S. State Department Thursday granted funds for a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan and an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan.
On Saturday, Chinese leader Hu Jintao and Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev agreed to build an oil pipeline from Turkmenistan's Caspian shore to China across Kazakhstan.
The implementation of these projects could disrupt Gazprom's gas deliveries to Europe after 2011.
The Russian energy giant said the U.S. decision to grant funds was proof of the political aspects of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline.
Gazprom's spokesman, Sergei Kupriyanov, said: "The United States, which claims that Gazprom is a political tool [of the Kremlin], has issued money for the feasibility study."
Experts agree on the political aspects of the two projects, which are aimed at diversifying export routes for Caspian energy resources and supporting the Nabucco project for the supply of Central Asian gas to Europe, bypassing Russia.
Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the investment company Troika Dialog, said: "The project can be implemented with political approval by the leaders of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, even if it entails negative economic results."
Beijing and Astana have agreed to build a second leg of the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline, which will connect Caspian oilfields to China.
The pipeline, with a throughput capacity of 10 million metric tons a year, will come on stream in 2009. Nazarbayev said commercial production on the Caspian oilfields would begin in 2011.
Gazprom's contract for the purchase of gas from Turkmenistan expires in 2011, the year that promises to bring problems to the Russian energy giant.
In 2011-2015, Russia will need to establish a new resource base, possibly on Yamal (Zapolyarnoye gas deposit) and in Eastern Siberia (Kovykta), because the West Siberian deposits will become depleted by that time.
Gazprom will need the Central Asian resources to fulfill its contracts with the European Union.
Even if the regional countries increase gas production, Gazprom might still not get enough gas, because they would supply 60 billion cubic meters a year to the West and East, bypassing Russia, after 2011.
Vedomosti
Astana insists on greater Caspian Pipeline capacity
Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Karim Masimov has warned Russia that if the Caspian Pipeline Consortium does not expand, his country will find a way to boost oil exports to the West along the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan link (BTC).
The latter is currently filled with Azeri oil, and does not have the additional capacity to transit Kazakh oil as well. But the very fact that Astana is searching for alternative routes might compel Moscow to expand the Caspian Pipeline's capacity.
According to Masimov, Kazakhstan would prefer the Caspian option. However, the consortium shareholders have not yet come to terms about the timeframe to expand its transit capacity, he said.
If the project does not develop, Kazakhstan will choose the option of expanding the BTC, he added.
Kazakhstan plans to boost annual oil production to 100 million metric tons by 2010, and to 150 million metric tons by 2015.
The success of those plans will depend on the pace of development of the Kashagan field, but the date it might come on stream has been delayed several times, admitted Masimov.
Russia is interested in pumping more oil through the CPC. Still, it will only be possible after settling a number of disputes related to the consortium's management, the CPC's expensive loans, and Russia's shortfall of revenues, said Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the investment company Troika Dialog.
Bringing the CPC capacity up to 67 million metric tons of oil a year has been discussed since 1996.
Russia has disapproved of the plan because the project did not recover its cost due to low transit tariffs and high interest in the CPC's loans. The high interest the company had to pay inflicted losses and tax charges on it.
The CPC would be an attractive option because of its capacity and tariffs, if the latter do not grow, said Steven Dashevsky, managing director at investment company Aton Capital.
Any alternative routes would be less economically efficient. On the other hand, it is also a political issue, he added. If the sides do not reach a compromise, Kazakhstan will start developing other options, for example, to China and on to Iran via the Caspian.
Another option would be to ship Kazakh oil to Baku by tanker, and on to the West by pipeline, Nesterov said.
Russia's oil exports are unlikely to grow much, Nesterov said, adding that Moscow will soon have a problem filling the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline. Therefore, officials may finally approve the expansion of the CPC.
Gazeta.ru
Russia's WTO accession may be hindered again
Sweden has announced it would put a brake on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) unless Moscow complies with several new requirements.
The move was provoked by Russia's recent decision to raise export duties on timber.
Anastasia Kopylova, an analyst with Lesprom Industry Consulting, said duties would grow to 80% of the customs value for some types of timber to no less than 50 euros per cubic meter, by 2011.
"It will become unprofitable for Sweden and Finland to buy Russian timber, and the Russian government hopes that will encourage them to start building processing plants in Russia," Kopylova said. Russia did not invent this method, which "is a universal economic mechanism."
It is not the first time the WTO has been used as an instrument to put pressure on Russia.
Georgia used that stick when Russia established checkpoints in the breakaway Georgian republics, and Moldova did it to fight Russia's ban on the import of Moldovan wines, fruit and vegetables.
Poland appealed to the European Union when Russia banned the import of Polish meat, and Lithuania used the instrument to force Russia to resume oil deliveries.
In March 2007, Finland's Foreign Ministry said that Moscow's decision to raise customs duties could slow down its accession to the WTO.
Russia and Sweden cannot directly settle bilateral problems related to the WTO, according to the Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry.
"Russia discussed its WTO accession with the EU, not with individual member countries. Therefore, it needs the consolidated opinion of the EU to be able to continue accession talks," said the ministry's press service.
Sweden has acted rashly, because Russia is not a WTO member and, given the crawling pace of the accession talks, will not join it soon.
"We have not assumed any obligations, because Russia is not a WTO member, although we are complying with many requirements, have amended our legislation and cut some duties," the ministry's spokesperson said.
This duality could be used as the basis for bargaining on Russia's WTO accession, which began 12 years ago.
Izvestia
Moldovan wine producers refuse to return to Russian market
Moldovan wine producers have long been seeking permission to be allowed back on the Russian market. But now that Russia's consumer rights agency, Rospotrebnadzor, has issued the necessary permits to seven companies, Moldova's officials have refused to resume exports to Russia.
Moldovan wine producers were so keen to return to the Russian market that they even admitted Russian experts to inspect their facilities. However, once seven out of 24 companies obtained permits, the remaining 17 became outraged at such preferences.
The director of the state agency Moldova-Vin, Valery Mironesku, said they would not have a portion of the country's wine producers discriminated against. Either all the companies return to the Russian market, or none of them will, he said.
None of Rospotrebnadzor's reasoning is convincing enough for Moldova's government.
President Vladimir Voronin is annoyed by Russia's policy toward Moldovan wines. He has reiterated several times that Russia must make the decision with regard to all Moldovan wine producers.
Now it is Moldova's government that is holding back its wine businesses. From an economic perspective, it is probably a unique case of companies renouncing their own rights in a bid to support less fortunate compatriots and colleagues.
The whole situation has seriously affected Moldova's economy. Russia used to buy up to 80% of Moldova's wine. The wine imports ban Russia imposed brought Moldova's wine exports revenues down from $313 million to $173 million.
The Russian market has already filled the gap with domestic wines.
Kommersant
Russian auto unions join forces for higher wages
The Interregional Auto Union, which speaks for the workers of four Russian automotive plants, has launched a nationwide campaign for higher pay for industry staff.
Leaders of the union, which has a membership of 4,000, have threatened that they "will call for a strike" in the fall. Experts are sure that Western companies will soon be reckoning with workers' demands when setting wage rates, but consider the automotive union too weak for the time being.
Its statement also bears the signatures of union leaders from the Ford Motor Company (Vsevolozhsk) and Nokian Tires in the Leningrad Region, Moscow's Avtoframos, the Yedinstvo union at the AvtoVAZ motor giant, and GM Avtovaz in Togliatti.
But experts predicted higher labor costs at the Moscow and St. Petersburg plants as early as 2006.
After 2009, both cities are to become the hubs of the overseas automotive industry in Russia - and will have Volkswagen, Nissan, Toyota, and General Motors plants around them, as well as components operations.
"Many companies arriving in Russia will take strikes into consideration, and that will give the workers a good trump card for negotiating their future wages," said Kirill Chuiko, an analyst with Uralsib investment company.
"Overseas companies are unlikely to suffer badly, because the proportion of labor in assembly costs is just a few percent. At AvtoVAZ, on the other hand, almost everything is assembled by workers, and its staff is by far larger, so a higher pay will be harder to bargain for," he said.
"It is not so easy to organize union activities on such a scale," said Ivan Bonchev, an analyst with Ernst & Young.
"Too few unions are strong enough at the plants, and in many places the recruiting of membership will have to start from scratch. The engineering sector has no history of such strong organizations at all," he said.
"Industry unions are a thing of the past in Russia, and international unions of companies have a much greater say now," said Sergei Khramov, head of the Sotsprof Association of Trade Unions.
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