The assault began early this morning, the day after Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf said that the time for talks was over. His decision will have far-reaching implications not only in Pakistan but in the rest of the Muslim world.
There is a clear parallel between events in Islamabad and two other recent outbreaks of violence in the Muslim world: the seizure of power by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the fighting between the Lebanese army and Islamist militants in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Barid.
All three events involved an attempt by Islamists to take control of areas that they consider their "turf," even though each outbreak was provoked by different political factors. Nevertheless, each case was both a test for the local authorities and a warning to all leaders of the region, from North Africa to Afghanistan. Political Islam is growing stronger and is dictating the rules of the game. Does it make more sense to fight the Islamists or to search for a compromise with them?
Clashes in the Pakistani capital started on July 3. Vyacheslav Belokrenitsky, head of the Middle East department at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, told RIA Novosti that the confrontation was provoked by students who would continuously harass ordinary people in the Pakistani capital for their allegedly "immoral conduct" and failure to follow "the Muslim way of life." They became markedly more active at the beginning of this year, making an open conflict with the authorities inevitable.
"This conflict has erupted as a result of fundamentalists protesting against what is being imposed on them from the outside. This is a vivid example of Islamists fighting against the policy of the elite, which has a different view of the world's political and economic realities," Belokrenitsky said.
He believes that regardless of the consequences of this confrontation between the Islamists and the government, such attitudes are highly dangerous for the entire Muslim world, all the more so since they are a major cause of terrorism.
"The events in Pakistan, the Gaza Strip and the Nahr al-Barid refugee camp in Lebanon, as well as the alliance of the Islamic radicals in Iraq, are all links in one and the same chain. The Taliban's revival in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda's growing influence in Europe and the rest of the world are also part of the same phenomenon," he said, adding that rumors of the approaching end of the international jihad movement were greatly exaggerated.
In Pakistan, the military have the situation under control and are not likely to give in to the Islamists. The latter do not have the widespread support that Hamas demonstrated in the Palestinian elections in January 2006. Belokrinitsky believes that in Pakistan, with its steadily growing economy, the Islamists do not have any supporters whose grievances are primarily economic. The Islamists have never received more than 12% of the vote in the country's parliamentary elections, and this pattern is not likely to change in October.
"The situation in the country is not calm, but I would not describe it as a crisis of power," Belokrinitsky said. Right now the Islamists do not pose a threat to the Musharraf regime, but they are ready to pounce at the first sign of weakness.
Belokrinitsky observed that up to now, Musharraf has been pursuing a policy of appeasement towards the Islamists, trying to come to terms with them. The Islamists govern the North-West Frontier Province and share power with the ruling Pakistani Muslim League in Baluchistan, another province bordering on Afghanistan. This is not likely to change after the unrest in Islamabad.
Islamist parties are an integral part of the Muslim world, just as Christian parties are in the West. It is possible to live with them under certain terms. At any rate, the experience of Turkey, whose Islamist Justice and Development Party won that country's parliamentary elections in November 2002, has proved this. It all boils down to the potential of a political system and the strategy of the ruling parties. Under the Islamists, Turkey has remained a NATO member and has not abandoned its course towards integration with the European Union. But it should be borne in mind that the Turkish Islamists are just one part of a political mechanism that also includes a strong secular opposition backed by the military. The situation will remain stable as long as they are present.
The problem lies not in Islam as such, but in how it is being exploited. What does Islam mean for this or that party or movement - is it an instrument of struggle or a way of life? Is it a banner for perpetual conflict with the West or an attempt to achieve justice at home and preserve one's national identity? Do the Muslims themselves see the difference between radical and moderate versions of Islam, especially in a situation where one and the same leaders run for parliament while simultaneously urging jihad against the "infidels"? Not too long ago, the halls of government were the preserve of pro-Western forces, whereas now opponents in different Muslim countries have discovered the virtues of politics, turning legislatures into the new ideological battleground.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
