MOSCOW, June 13 (RIA Novosti) Will Eurasia have alternative WTO?/Aeroflot deal: no politics involved/Putin's Gabala initiative a trap for Washington
Gazeta
Will Eurasia have alternative WTO?
Speaking at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, World Trade Organization (WTO) head Pascal Lami admitted that an organization couldn't be multilateral without Russia. And yet, Moscow has not yet been invited to join it.
The situation will certainly be resolved sooner or later. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech at the forum had a tinge of disappointment with the trade body.
Russia's economy changed as its protracted WTO talks with the EU have gone on. Moreover, the country will soon have a new government, and one that will approve of business expansion beyond Russia's borders.
Russian businesses are strong enough to withstand harsh international competition, for example with China in Africa.
Still, even after entering "third world" markets, aggressive Russian companies will not be able to flood the U.S. and Europe with their highly competitive products, because those markets are protected by WTO norms.
Therefore, Putin would prefer to see Russia as a WTO member and a key lobby in the new Eurasian cooperation organization before handing it over to his successor.
This new organization can stem from the existing Customs Union within the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC), which opens other countries' markets to Russian businesses.
In any case, Russia's main exports, fuels, will be expanded to the Asia-Pacific region rather than Europe in the next few years. The region is an appropriate environment in which an alternative WTO could emerge.
True, Russia must strongly argue its ambition to dominate and to promote free trade in Eurasia.
So President Putin put forth a sound idea to make the ruble an anchor currency. He said the fluctuations of the existing reserve currencies often have highly negative effects on third world countries' economies and financial reserves.
Until recently, the ruble could not be used as an international settlement tool because its export was limited. As of now, the ruble is a fully convertible currency, albeit not a very popular one.
Putin suggested forcing global financial institutions to use the ruble by imposing ruble settlements on exports. It can be done with the help of commodity exchanges. One of them will be launched in St. Petersburg soon.
However, it is difficult to forecast how actively consumers will buy Russian oil on that exchange.
Vedomosti
Aeroflot deal: no politics involved
On Saturday, Aeroflot signed a contract with Boeing for the delivery of 22 long-haul Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes in 2014-2016.
The aircraft are most likely to be supplied through a financial leasing arrangement guaranteed by American Eximbank, Aeroflot CEO Valery Okulov said.
The sum is not being disclosed. The list price of 22 Boeing 787s of different types is $3.3-$4.1 billion. A year ago, Boeing offered Aeroflot a discount of $10 million per liner, and that offer remains good, a source close to Boeing said.
The markdown may be as high as 30%, said Yevgeny Shago, an analyst with Trust Bank.
The Aeroflot contract has pushed Boeing far ahead of its European rival and its latest offering, the Airbus 350 XWB. Its order book has more than 600 units, compared with Airbus's 110.
The A350 XWB is larger and higher-priced, and will not go into production until 2013, whereas the Dreamliner begins production in 2008.
A year ago, Aeroflot's management favored Boeing. The American company offered it easy payment terms and delivery in 2010.
Aeroflot asked its board of directors to endorse the deal, but officials said no, looking instead to a partnership with the European aircraft industry.
As a result, Aeroflot lost its slot in Boeing's delivery schedule, and in March inked a framework agreement for the delivery of 22 A350s in 2014-2017.
The Boeing contract does not invalidate the agreement with Airbus, with whom Aeroflot will probably sign a contract before the fall, Okulov said.
Aeroflot runs no risks - it needs at least 17 airliners to renew its fleet, and "spare" planes can be subleased, said Shago from Trust.
The deal with Boeing has yet to be approved by Aeroflot's board of directors. The Kremlin is poised to back it. "The political situation has changed," said a source in the Presidential Executive Office.
Last year, Russia believed that Europe was its ally in facing the United States, said political expert Alexei Makarkin. But the latest developments have shown that that is not the case.
At the recent G8 summit in Germany, none of the European countries supported Russia in its opposition to a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Now business can choose between contracts without "political strings attached," the expert said.
Aeroflot is Russia's largest airline in terms of the number of passengers carried.
By the end of 2006, its fleet included 124 passenger liners, 41 of them produced by either Boeing or Airbus. Its 2006 revenues, according to International Financial Reporting Standards, were $2.983 billion and its net profit was $258.1 million.
Aeroflot is 51.2%-owned by the state, with about 30% belonging to the National Reserve Corporation. The company's capitalization on the RTS was $2.7 billion as of June 9.
Kommersant
Putin's Gabala initiative a trap for Washington
The Soviet Union used to advance "peace initiatives" not in order to ease international tensions, but to confuse U.S. administrations.
For example, the Kremlin would propose liquidating a certain number of nuclear warheads, which the United States could not accept. Washington would then refuse the offer, and Moscow would use the fact to show the world which country was the greater threat to peace.
On June 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested during talks with U.S. President George Bush at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm, Germany, that the U.S. use the Gabala radar Russia leased from Azerbaijan instead of deploying missile defense elements in Central Europe.
Some people said Putin first aired the idea in late April, during his telephone conversation with Bush.
But Washington dismissed it because it did not suit its plans. When Putin repeated the idea at the G8 summit, it became "a peace initiative" some journalist compared to a smart judo flip.
If Washington rejects the proposal now, the world will see it as a warmonger. If it really wants to protect its national territory from Iranian missiles, it only needs the Gabala radar and anti-missiles somewhere in the south (Putin suggested Turkey or Iraq).
The U.S. administration will now need a solid argument to deploy its ballistic missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The State Department is at a loss as to what to tell its Central European partners, with whom it has been negotiating the deployment.
But it will have to find an argument, or very soon the Republican administration will have to explain to its Democratic opponents and European allies why it rejected the Gabala proposal.
Eventually, Washington will have to admit that it needs ABM systems in Europe to track Russian missile launches.
This is the moment of truth. The United States does not trust Russia, just as during the Cold War, and admits the possibility of a global nuclear conflict in which Russians will fight Americans.
Russia again views the U.S. as a potential adversary and is pondering "an adequate but asymmetrical" response to the American challenge.
That is why Moscow is advancing new "peace initiatives" and Washington is pondering new Star War plans. The only thing ordinary people can hope for in this situation is another detente.
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