"Wars often begin with provocations," said General Leonid Ivashov, deputy head of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences think tank. "The present situation with the British sailors could be the 'fuse' that ignites a war."
Iran has so far refused to release 15 British sailors arrested March 23, allegedly for straying into its territorial waters. The U.K. has referred the issue to the UN Security Council, saying its servicemen were patrolling the Persian Gulf in Iraqi waters and under a UN mandate.
"The countries have not demonstrated their willingness to compromise. Iran itself is heading for war," said Ivashov, who was formerly in charge of foreign relations at the Defense Ministry.
The Americans are rushing to build up their Air Force and Navy contingent in the region, Ivashov said, adding that other signs of a pending war were civil defense exercises being conducted in Israel and the evacuation of some Western embassies in Tehran.
Ivashov suggested the United States could use nuclear weapons to hit 17 to 20 nuclear research and production facilities in Iran, the majority of which are located deep underground in mountainous areas.
"[President George W.] Bush needs a quick victory to secure a Republican win in the 2008 election," Ivashov said, adding that a campaign in Iran could be resumed after the presidential poll.
Washington has refused to rule out a military operation against Iran over its defiance of international demands to halt nuclear enrichment activities that could eventually be used in weapons production. Tehran has dismissed the suspicions, saying its nuclear program is peaceful.
But Ivashov said the war would be over oil and other economic concerns, as U.S. oil reserves were only enough to last about 10 years and the dollar had been declining. He said a war would give a boost to the American economy.
Asked when a military campaign could begin, the general said it depended on a political decision by Washington and the readiness of American troops, but that it could conceivably begin shortly.
Ivashov said Russia would use all its diplomatic leverage to prevent a war with Iran.
The UN Security Council passed a new resolution on Iran Saturday, envisioning tougher economic sanctions. Although highlighting a focus on diplomacy in dealing with Tehran, the document accepts the possibility of a military solution to the crisis.
U.K. embassy security
Authorities in Tehran have stepped up security at the U.K. Embassy there amid growing tensions over the detention of the British sailors.
Several dozen police were sent to guard the embassy Friday, as authorities fear ordinary Iranians could converge on the building following traditional Friday prayers at Tehran University to protest the British military's "illegitimate activities."
