MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Vavra) - A Moscow Turkmen man told me last summer that Turkmenbashi had a fatal disease, and would not live until the end of 2006. His prediction came true, which compelled me to trust his information.
For a number of reasons, he would prefer to remain anonymous. His political position is a direct consequence of the situation in the republic.
Turkmenistan was a country ruled by a dictator who misappropriated its wealth and put it on his personal account in a European bank; he wanted to bring his subjects to their knees, and kept hostage the relatives of his regime's opponents.
It is natural to wish a better life for one's own country. Turkmenistan's future is being decided now. Elections are due in two months. Today is the time for heated debates, political bargaining, and a resolute struggle for power.
Gas resources of this small Central Asian country are a serious argument for a big-time political battle. One could say that Turkmenistan cannot get away from Russia because its gas travels through Russian pipes. Hence, the new government will primarily orient itself to Russia. In other words, Russia will be number one in any event, and there are no reasons to worry.
But the situation is not that simple. Steady gas supplies are as important as the gas itself. But supplies are steady when there exists political stability in the first place. If the power struggle becomes extreme, there will be no stability or steady supplies of anything.
U.S. presence in the area is a major factor. I don't believe for a minute that Washington is indifferent to the future Turkmen government (Saparmurat Niyazov prohibited flights of U.S. aircraft over Turkmen territory). The U.S. is all the more interested in Turkmenistan because it has a chance to match its resources with democracy, and make the task of building political and economic ties with it much simpler. Moreover, the U.S. and NATO are close by - in Afghanistan, separated from Turkmenistan by an almost unguarded border, which is being actively used by drug traffickers.
Besides, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Iran are also near. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are Central Asia's leaders in economic power and strength of the population, and have obvious economic interests in Turkmenistan. Moreover, in case of serious disorder (which may compel people to flee to adjacent states), they will have to protect the lives and property of the Kazakh and Uzbek minorities there.
Gas pipelines, mixed population in the border areas, and military presence in the region are all good things, but government must be personified, and this is the most difficult problem.
The dictator did not believe in the immutability of physical laws. At any rate, he did not think about his successor. He mercilessly put behind bars all those who showed even the smallest desire for power (he also sent people to prison for a thousand other reasons). But some have managed to escape.
In Asian political tradition, his son Murad would become his only more or less legitimate successor in this situation. He has gone into business, has lived with his family in Vienna for the past two years, and has nothing to do with the power struggle at home. If he took part in it, he would inevitably become number one candidate. However, he has no political experience or grip, dictatorial ways, or a team...
Such a candidate is bound to become a screen in the overwhelming majority of cases.
Under the Constitution, elections should take place in late February, but Acting President (the current health minister) cannot run for the top position himself.
The range of political forces admitted to the elections will be decisive in determining Turkmenistan's future. The interim government will have its say on this issue.
Let's analyze possible scenarios. Scenario Number One: regular behind-the-scenes struggle with Murad as a banner or without him; Murad is likely to be involved, and as a result, Turkmenistan will receive an unstable quasi-dictatorship; for lack of political legitimacy, a simple conspiracy will not allow its participants to achieve genuine stability.
Scenario Number Two: all political forces are represented in the elections. Since Turkmenistan does not have parties, politics, or a powerful clan structure, this will mean return of the opposition - all those who had to escape Turkmenbashi, who had been waiting in Russia for better times, or hiding in Europe, and who are ready to come back if Russia guarantees their security despite its agreement with Turkmenistan on extradition of criminals (at Turkmenbashi's demand, Interpol is after two out of three main opposition leaders that received asylum in Europe). The opposition leaders understand that they can only orient themselves to Russia.
The U.S. has its candidate as well. There is also a young Turkmen elite that has studied in the U.S. Naturally enough it is oriented strictly to the West.
There are only two strong candidates inside the republic - the defense minister and the head of the presidential guards, who are locked in strife.
If the power struggle becomes drawn out and spills over to the streets, Turkmenistan may be in for some dramatic events. Abundant natural resources have given little to its population. This year's harvest was not good, and Russian Turkmens had to send flour and other food to their relatives. Under the circumstances, the army is not likely to hold back the discontented.
Another intricate question is what to do with the political prisoners inside the country? Should they be kept behind bars? If an amnesty is announced, criminal offenders will leave prisons as well, and may provoke disorder.
This is how a man who has been involved in Turkmen politics sees the situation. He is ready to place his bets on Russia in this big game.
To sum up, Russia has two options. The first one is to stay out of the battle for power, wait it out, and agree with the victor, in which case we'll be where we are now.
The second choice is to make an effort to consolidate Turkmen society and promote real political competition. We should be linked not only by gas pipes, but also by genuine friendship and good neighborly relations.
In this way Russia will not only display its high moral standards, but will also gain clear political and economic advantages before its rivals.
I recall we once built the Friendship gas pipeline there. This was better than pipeline-based friendship.
