Yulia Tymoshenko, an uncontrollable populist with conflict-fuelling and scandalous behavior, seems to be the main instability factor. She will become the head of a government where she will not fully control the personnel or its policy.
However, the stability of the new coalition will depend on the efficiency and unity of pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine, or rather its ability to keep Tymoshenko within certain boundaries.
Our Ukraine is the cornerstone of the coalition. The stronger it is and the more coordinated personnel and domestic policy decisions it makes, the stronger the coalition will be.
This status of the block is based on the informal leadership of President Viktor Yushchenko, which has given the block a monopoly right to choose partners for the government coalition and try to maintain the coalition's efficiency. Should he have the slightest doubts regarding the "orange coalition's" expediency, Yushchenko will find a way to deprive Tymoshenko of a majority in parliament.
To keep the reins in conditions of a political reform and Our Ukraine's defeat in the parliamentary elections, Yushchenko created a system of checks and balances for Yulia Tymoshenko, who will become prime minister soon.
In addition to being an instability factor herself, Tymoshenko will head a much more influential cabinet. Therefore, the stability of the coalition and the efficiency of the executive branch will depend on the ability of Our Ukraine and Viktor Yushchenko to control Tymoshenko. In other words, the stronger the boundaries created by the pro-presidential block for the premier, the less harmful she would be for Ukraine's system of power.
The strength of the boundaries in this case depends on institutional and political factors. Institutionally, Tymoshenko will be limited by a policy document signed by all members of the coalition. There will be a system of interdependence and hedges at the personnel level.
After lengthy debates, Petro Poroshenko, Tymoshenko's main political opponent, has been nominated for parliamentary speaker.
The post of deputy prime minister for the regional policies may go to Roman Bezsmertny, who had prevented Tymoshenko from tackling personnel issues in the regions.
In fact, Ukraine may see a repetition of an old conflict.
Cabinet portfolios and leadership in parliamentary committees will be distributed according to a quota principle, although asymmetrically. The spheres that will be controlled by Tymoshenko's eponymous block in the cabinet will be given over to Our Ukraine or the Socialist Party in parliament. In other words, Tymoshenko's decisions cannot be implemented without a consensus approval by the coalition.
This might curtail Tymoshenko's autonomy and make her almost fully dependent on the coalition. However, this goal will not be attained if Our Ukraine fails to maintain its political unity, which is a big question.
Firstly, the pro-presidential block split when the coalition was being created. Petro Poroshenko and Yury Yekhanurov - the key figures in the block - called for joining forces with Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions. Moreover, many members of Our Ukraine have a negative attitude to Tymoshenko.
Although the final decision was made in favor of Tymoshenko's block and the Socialist Party, Our Ukraine is trying to remain friendly with all major players, securing a loophole for a potential future coalition with Yanukovich's opposition party.
Secondly, Our Ukraine could not choose the candidate for the parliament speaker for a long time. Apart from Poroshenko, it also considered Anatoly Kinakh of the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, and Vladimir Stretovich of the Christian-Democratic Union. The issue concerned not only the candidates' rivalry, but also the strategic choice of Viktor Yushchenko.
The president eventually chose Poroshenko, because this would complicate the formalization of the "orange coalition." Tymoshenko's block will accept Poroshenko only in a package vote (together with Tymoshenko's appointment as prime minister), which contradicts the Ukrainian Constitution. The coalition will be put to the test very soon.
Tymoshenko could become increasingly uncontrollable because of differences with Our Ukraine, whose politicians tend to be more pragmatic. She could provoke conflicts and appeal to the president, who usually prefers to keep clear of scandals.
But Tymoshenko is not the main problem of the coalition. Its main problem is that Our Ukraine could not choose the coalition partner (Yushchenko made the choice for it), and the block's ambitious and heterogeneous members wanted to get levers of power although they had lost the parliamentary elections.
Tatyana Stanovaya is chief analyst at the Center for Political Technologies.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
