MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Romanov) - The Paris meeting on Iran, which the media dubbed "secret" because journalists were barred from it from start to finish, ended in failure as expected.
The positions of the sides remained the same. The United States wants the UN Security Council to pass the toughest possible resolution on Iran's nuclear file. By and large, the Europeans are leaning toward the U.S. proposal, while permanent members of the Security Council Moscow and Beijing insist on talks. The negotiators were trying hard to conceal what has long become an open secret.
Trying to help Beijing and Moscow out of the predicament, U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton has suggested that they should abstain from voting on the problem at the Security Council. If the Council is torn apart by contradictions and fails to exert pressure on Iran, the U.S. and other countries may themselves punish Iran. Other U.S. officials have expressed the same opinion. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack has just made another statement to this effect.
Moscow also has to adjust its position. Chairman of the Duma committee on international affairs Konstantin Kosachyov has just declared that Iran's ostentatious refusal to comply with the Security Council requirements was fraught with serious consequences. He did not rule out sanctions against Iran.
It is even more interesting to hear the opinions of intelligence officers, military men and independent experts. U.S. intelligence spokesmen openly admit that they know very little about Iran; such statements, however, should not calm Tehran down because they clearly show that the U.S. and its foremost allies are channeling all the necessary financial, material and intellectual resources into the effort. It is hardly a coincidence that when U.S.-Iranian dispute reached its peak, the military announced successful testing at the Eglin air base in Florida of the 10-ton Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB), which the press immediately dubbed the Mother of All Bombs. The use of tactical nuclear arms, primarily anti-bunker weapons, has not been ruled out, either. It is not surprising that Moscow insists on negotiations - it does not want a nuclear war near its borders, all the more so since nuclear issue is no bluff. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that the American military should analyze all options against Iran, including the use of nuclear weapons.
It is not merely the doctrine of a preventive strike that is pushing the U.S. to be tough. In effect, the doctrine itself reflects the painful Pearl Harbor syndrome, and a highly dubious assumption that it was possible to nip Hitler in the bud if the U.S. had intervened in Europe earlier. The trauma inflicted on the U.S. by the barbarous hostage seizure in Iran has not healed, either. Good old Freud is here again.
Finally, the Americans are worried by some forecasts. Zbigniew Brzezinski thinks that the U.S. will wage war with Iran for 30 years and lose its world supremacy as a result. This prediction suggests the conclusion - either not go to war at all, or strike without mercy and win a quick victory. Thus, the American Eagle is now looking around with particular attention and is ready to nip in the bud anything it perceives as an attack. Invasion of Iran on the basis of unverified data may be just a prelude, all the more so since presumption of innocence does not apply to Iran. Defending its right to a civilian nuclear program, Tehran has already said too much and got bogged down in contradictions.
Even some independent Russian experts believe that war is inevitable. Chairman of the Presidium of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin said: "I think that the actions, which have been taken, and the propaganda accompaniment, which we have been hearing, give us enough grounds to predict that the decision on a missile attack... has been made. Considering the election race, this should happen in late spring or summer."
It is rumored that in Yerevan, capital of Armenia, wealthy Iranians of Azeri background have already rushed to buy housing, just in case...
In turn, the press is trying to predict what Iran will do in return. Quoting its sources in Tehran, the British Sunday Times writes that Iran is ready for an adequate reply. There are 40,000 trained suicide bombers, who will attack American, Israeli and British targets, 29 of which have already been selected. The Iranian president is talking about an asymmetrical blow at Israel. Tehran has also repeatedly threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
To sum up, Pearl Harbor and the good old Freud are spelling a lot of trouble.