MOSCOW. (By RIA Novosti political commentator Marianna Belenkaya.)
Early elections for Iraq's parliament have already started. The main voting will take place on December 15. This marks the third time Iraqis have come to the polling stations this year but these elections are very different. They signify the completion of the transitional stage in Iraq's political rehabilitation, and bring closer the withdrawal of American and other allied troops.
For the first time since the downfall of Saddam Hussein's regime the Iraqis will elect authorities which will work a full term. These are elections for the real legislature which will form the executive government based on election results and deliberate a permanent constitution.
At a referendum on October 15, the Iraqis approved a temporary draft of their constitution. Previously, on January 30, they voted for Iraq's transitional parliament, and up to now the transitional government has been in power for a
mere nine months. It was naive to expect that it would make definite and well-balanced decisions. Willy-nilly a new government will be responsible for its actions. Moreover, even a change of government should not affect the continuity of decisions both in politics and the economy.
One more substantial difference of these elections is a broad representation. More than 200 parties and coalitions are going to run for 275 seats in the National Assembly. Many of them are Sunnis, who largely boycotted the elections in January. Now appeals to the community to take part in the elections are sounding in Sunni mosques.
Although Sunnis still remain in the minority and will obviously lose to the Shiite community, they can still claim a considerable representation in parliament and important positions in the government if they vote en masse. In any event, the new Iraqi parliament will not unequivocally represent the interests of one or two communities - Shiites and Kurds. Iraqi politicians predict that the National Assembly will be a mosaic where not a single party will have a considerable advantage over the others. On the one hand, it will only slow down Iraq's already difficult decision-making process, but on the other, different political forces will have to seek a compromise with one another.
Yet, despite obvious progress in Iraqi political life, it is too early to say that the hardest times are over. Sunnis are ready to take part in the elections but this does not mean that they will accept a compromise easily. Their broad participation in the elections shows that they are going to be tough in defending their rights and interests.
Sunni politicians decided to run in the elections after different Iraqi political forces agreed to hold a conference on national reconciliation at the beginning of the next year. The hope is to be able to reach a compromise on a number of important issues, such as Iraq's political structure, end of the occupation, legitimacy of resistance and possibilities for former Ba'ath members to participate in political life. Now the question is how much Shiites and Kurds are ready to compromise. Everything will depend on the alignment of forces in the new parliament.
For the time being, the situation is very unstable. Sunnis are accusing the authorities of torture in prisons while Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari (Shiite) does not want to hold negotiations with former Ba'ath members and those who are engaged in armed resistance. So, it is not yet clear who will speak with whom, and what they will discuss.
The results of the Iraqi elections, and the success of the conference on reconciliation will determine how soon the Americans and their allies will be able to fully shift responsibility for the events in Iraq to the Iraqis themselves. Next year will show whether the elections promote stabilization or not. If no compromise is found, foreign troops will have to remain in Iraq for a long time. Whatever the attitude to them may be, they are still the only guarantor of Iraq's territorial integrity and political progress, slow as it is.
