"In terms of the ISS program, yet another postponement of the launch of a U.S. space shuttle is seen as a matter of certain concern," chief of the Russian Space Agency Anatoly Perminov told RIA Novosti.
Last week, Michael Griffin, the new NASA administrator, officially confirmed, citing a need for additional checks, that the Discovery shuttle launch scheduled for this month was pushed back until July. The next easy start window is on July 14 to 31. Commenting on the causes for delay, he said that NASA was "not rushing to flight, we're doing what we need to do to ensure that."
NASA administrator has his grounds for concern indeed, for the lives of seven astronauts and credibility of the whole U.S. space program are now in his hands. Meanwhile, his Russian counterpart has to worry about other, not less important, things.
Russia has two major ISS concerns: just as we need to do something today at a station that can only function when inhabited, we also have to look into the future, defining the prospects for the entire ISS project.
The primary cause of uncertainty is that next year the term of Russia's commitment to haul U.S. astronauts on its Soyuz spacecraft will expire. After the Columbia disaster, Soyuz has been the only means to deliver anything to the space station. The U.S. would like to secure Soyuz as a backup route even when space shuttles are back on track.
In comment on the situation, Alexei Krasnov, top Russian Space Agency officer for manned flights, said on Tuesday, "The timing of Soyuz flights for the near future is well known. However, hardly anyone can be certain as to how the shuttles will be going. Accordingly, it is hard to make a plan right now."
"Our American counterparts have made it clear they would like to have one astronaut delivered on every Soyuz flight. In return, they promise to deliver one Russian member of the main crew by shuttles. However, today we do not have any rubber-stamped agreements on delivering American main crew members by Soyuz. They have not been sealed yet," Mr. Krasnov said.
In other words, Russia could still face a need to run the space station all by itself.
In the future, the ISS, head of the Russian Space Agency said, will make a good springboard for interplanetary manned flights, a priority in the U.S. as well as in Russia.
"Without a completed ISS program, without manned programs on the Moon, inhabited lunar stations, and new low-orbit stations any talk of a mission on Mars is out of the question," Mr. Perminov told reporters in late March.
On the one hand, our American partners indeed show a commitment to complete the ISS by 2010 as planned. If so, they must recognize that the Space Shuttles have to come back - the sooner the better.
On the other, the U.S. has no plans and appears to have little awareness beyond 2010. Worse, the Space Shuttle program is likely to be wound up by 2010, without any clear replacement and amid pressure from leading U.S. newspapers (see, for instance, The Washington Post, April 7) playing down the value of the ISS program and urging the government to re-distribute national space allocations from "questionable" inhabited flights to Voyager- and Hubble-class programs whose commercial and scientific value is well-proven.
If the U.S. diminishes its ISS role, the fledgling common vision of manned space operations could also vanish. If that happens, both space leaders will have to make their own ways toward the same goal.
