Il-76 Shootdown Signals Chaos Inside Ukraine’s Political and Military Establishment

Six Russian crewmembers, three Russian servicemen and 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed on Wednesday after two Ukrainian SAMs launched from Kharkov region struck the Russian Il-76 strategic airlifter they were traveling in Belgorod region. Sputnik asked a pair of geopolitics and military observers about the attack’s broader implications.

The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that the Il-76 flying from Chkalovsky Airfield outside Moscow to Belgorod carrying Ukrainian servicemen for a planned prisoner of war exchange was shot down by Ukrainian air defense missiles.

According to the MoD’s information, two missiles were detected on radar being fired from an area near the village of Liptsy in Kharkov region, about 15 km north of the city of Kharkov, and just 5 km from the Russian border. The Il-76 went down in eastern Belgorod region near the village of Yablonovo, about 50 km northeast of the city of Belgorod.

The Defense Ministry stressed that Ukraine’s leadership “knew very well that, in accordance with established practice…Ukrainian military personnel” were to “be transported by military transport aircraft to the Belgorod airfield” for a prisoner exchange.

Ukrainian media initially reported that the Russian Il-76 had been shot down by Ukraine’s Air Defense Forces, but scrubbed the information after it emerged that the plane was carrying Ukrainian PoWs.

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Officials in Kiev maintained dead silence on the incident throughout much of the day Wednesday, refraining even from Kiev and Washington’s traditional tactic of immediately blaming Russia.

Crew’s Actions Prevented Even Greater Disaster

“I must mention the heroic actions of the plane’s commander, who was able to swerve the already burning Il-76 away from the village of Yablonovo,” Andrei Koshkin, a retired Russian colonel and expert at the Association of Military-Political Scientists, told Sputnik, commenting on the deadly incident.

“The plane’s destruction occurred in a field. The heroism on the part of the crew of the military transport aircraft is obvious. Not only did they see and feel that their plane was falling apart – according to eyewitnesses it was falling apart in the air, but at that moment they were able to reduce the number of victims. The courage and professionalism of our crew is worthy of high praise,” Koshkin emphasized.

The village of Yablonovo has a population of about 400 people, meaning that if the 72 ton plane had fallen directly on top of the settlement, it have turned Wednesday’s tragedy into a disaster involving dozens if not hundreds of dead and injured civilians.

Chaos in Kiev Establishment

As far as the military and political ramifications of the shootdown are concerned, Koshkin echoed the Russian MoD’s comments that officials in Kiev had advance knowledge about the flight, and were aware of the fact that it was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.

“It was not a particularly difficult task to attack a military transport aircraft. The motive, frankly, is a provocation – a provocation both within Ukraine’s Armed Forces and within the Ukrainian political establishment,” Koshkin believes.

“It won’t be an easy task for Zelensky to get out of this situation, because he will have to explain on what basis the plane was destroyed, and by whom. There is of course the possibility that they will suddenly claim that Russia shot the plane down. But this is something Kiev’s Western curators are losing interest in. This is a serious provocation...If it turns out that it was organized by the decision of some internal forces seeking to complicate the situation or complicate the internal dispute between, say, the political establishment and military leadership, we will soon see to what extent this provocation will be used in that confrontation,” the observer said.

Dmitry Kornev, founder of the Military Russia analytical portal, told Sputnik that the Ukrainian side certainly has the means to target the Russian Il-76, which is a “large plane, without any stealth, which can be targeted and shot down at large distances, unfortunately,” ranging from the S-300 to the Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems.

Kornev echoed Koshkin’s sentiments that Wednesday’s provocation may be part of a larger plot, possibly relating to Kiev’s dependence on ever-dwindling amounts of military and economic assistance from the West.

“Let’s consider several possibilities. Zelensky is facing a difficult situation, a plane full of prisoners is shot down, this could be twisted in various directions,” the analyst said, suggesting that the news could be used as evidence that “everything is bad for Zelensky, that everything is lost,” and that he requires urgent Western assistance.

Pointing out that lawmakers in Washington are preparing to review a $61 billion aid package to Kiev this week, Kornev suggested that “in this situation, many events can be triggered artificially to somehow affect decisions in favor of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, or conversely, against them. It’s clear that different parties can play on this situation, including the United States, where different perspectives [on the Ukraine proxy war, ed.] intersect. More likely than not, this situation is not in Zelensky’s favor,” Kornev summed up.